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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Yep fewer north outliers this run vs previous. Southern edge no change
  2. Terpeast
    Surprised to see ukie colder than cmc, maybe a good sign. Both are around the same caliber for model verification, close behind euro
  3. Terpeast
    I like the 10-11th where it is now.
  4. Terpeast
    Thinking those snowfall maps are generous on the south side of that band, but the CMC always been close to mixing along I-66 the past several runs. It hasn't really changed except moving the storm along faster.
  5. Terpeast
    One positive out of a faster storm is we'll get snow starting at night or early morning hours. Easier stickage. CMC gets dangerously close to mixing here, but is the warmest of the 3 models so far this cycle.
  6. Terpeast
    CMC splits the difference between the GFS and euro
  7. Terpeast
    CMC s/w is more robust than GFS. But wave spacing is going to be a delicate issue for us.
  8. Terpeast
    CMC is also a bit faster at hr 78
  9. Terpeast
    Confluence is actually a bit stronger, but more east
  10. Terpeast
    And earlier neg tilt, which could mean more moisture feed. Too early to tell
  11. Terpeast
    Just spitballing based on gut feel, no real scientific reasoning. I think the best waa banding will occur just to the north of me. Hopefully I can stay within that band too
  12. Terpeast
    Happy new year all!
  13. Terpeast
    Looking ahead, some ridging is trying to push into Alaska again, which would keep the EPO from going too positive.
  14. Terpeast
    Nice set of 0z and 6z runs. The south trend needed to stop and it did. This is now within 5 days. Confidence is ticking higher.
  15. Terpeast
    And btw, happy new year everyone!
  16. Terpeast
    Ukie further south and bit slower
  17. Terpeast
    So, here’s where we are at. 3 models tonight - icon, gfs, cmc - stopped the suppression trend and brought the storms back north. Bit weaker confluence, better wave spacing by slowing the storm down 6ish hours.
  18. Terpeast
    Actually the models sped up this storm since early yesterday, and then now slowing it down a bit.
  19. Terpeast
    CMC had us flirting with the mix line. This is as far north as we want it to go.
  20. Terpeast
    I’ll take it. The south shift stopped and its back north per gfs. Probably some more wiggling to do, but starting to settle on the general track. Which is the kind of track we want.
  21. Terpeast
    Confluence def more east
  22. Terpeast
    Better, but careful. Don’t want to overcorrect
  23. Terpeast
    And not much difference in the NE low
  24. Terpeast
    Gfs is running. @stormtracker you still alive?
  25. Terpeast
    Not surprisingly. We need better wave spacing
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