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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    13.8. Close enough to forecast
  2. Terpeast
    19.4 now.
  3. Terpeast
    If you thought 18z gfs op was a disaster, look at the 18z ensembles. It is even better than 12z.
  4. Terpeast
    Currently 22.6. Forecast low is 13.
  5. Terpeast
    There's a reason op models are better limited to 168 hours, and then only ensembles after that. All we can take away is that the range of possibilities include a miss to the south, a HECS, and a cutter rainer. Or cold and dry.
  6. Terpeast
    Hail!
  7. Terpeast
    FWIW, despite the flak it gets these days, euro has been the best model this fall in terms of verification scores particularly the ensembles. Not saying the 12z op is correct about the HECS, but it’s a good sign that it’s even showing it as one possibility among a wide range of possibilities. We didn’t even see that last Feb before the good H5 looks collapsed.
  8. Terpeast
    High of 32, falling back to 31
  9. Terpeast
    The temp gradient between the northern third of this sub, the middle third, and the southern third must have been substantial. Lots of lows in the teens just to the north and mostly 20s down here.
  10. Terpeast
    The 3rd is 14 days away, discrete threats aren’t going to pop up on in agreement across models with that much lead time.
  11. Terpeast
    23.9
  12. Terpeast
    Agreed. It’s also a good sign that things are moving forward in time and the progged cold period is at least holding in length or even expanding. Still can get rug pulled a la Feb 2024, and there are no individual threats that are trackable at the moment, so it’s prudent to be cautious.
  13. Terpeast
    MJO rmm forecasts seem to be trending away from an immediate reload in 4, extending time outside of the warm phases to about 3 weeks instead of 2. I’ll check the hollmover charts later, too
  14. Terpeast
    Flurries in ashburn
  15. Terpeast
    PDO is now “only” -1
  16. Terpeast
    Just was at the Leesburg farmer market and it was cold. Windy. Saw clouds with snow falling to the south and west.
  17. Terpeast
    There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it
  18. Terpeast
    2009-10 and 2016 is also proof that this is already happening (inflated snow storm totals in a warming climate). Not just here, but also in other places.
  19. Terpeast
    I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows
  20. Terpeast
    A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. Imagine that.
  21. Terpeast
    “Who are you and what have you done to psuhoffman?”
  22. Terpeast
    Nice to see some lowland folks cashing in!
  23. Terpeast
    Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal.
  24. Terpeast
    Yeah I think the NYE storm (if there is one) will likely be a cutter that brings about the cold air closer in. The second or third wave after that are the ones we'd have a chance with
  25. Terpeast
    Still snowing, smaller flakes, only trace accumulation. Great snow TV
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