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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I remember that. We did see some cold coming after two powerful cutters, but did not see the 2 SECS until about 4-5 days prior, and even then they were progged to hit to the north of us. I think something similar is going to happen here. We won't see storms coming until the cold actually gets here, and only then we will be tracking threats, if any. Liking what the ens are showing, but I'm in wait and see mode. Get the cold here first, then track.
  2. Terpeast
    When the -NAO fades, that's when we usually get a snowstorm. Pretty typical progression scenario
  3. Terpeast
    I’m just curious, wasn’t 4” the criteria for a winter storm warning here before they changed it to 5”? Or has it always been 5”? My memory isn’t what it used to be.
  4. Terpeast
    That’s the mean trough position, with a ton of smoothing out at this range.
  5. Terpeast
    Biblical east coast storm. The elite class of em. 1996, first 2010 storm, and 2016
  6. Terpeast
    Merry Christmas everyone!
  7. Terpeast
    One positive takeaway from this is it might put a dent in the global temperatures. The overall spatial SST maps look a lot cooler with the ENSO region cooling off, as well as the Japan marine heat wave abating.
  8. Terpeast
    After a bunch of traces, here’s my first report on the board: 12/24: 0.1” snow/ice mix
  9. Terpeast
    Logging my first 0.1” in the reporting thread
  10. Terpeast
    Driveways and sidewalks are white. Probably a sheet of ice
  11. Terpeast
    Haven’t seen any roads treated here. If the nam is right, it’s gonna be bad
  12. Terpeast
    That's my take, too. I think we'll ultimately see a compromise between the GEFS and EPS/GEPS. Initially, cold moves down west, then a cutter or two pulls the cold east, and by the time we have a trackable threat it might be 1/5-1/7 or soon after (as opposed to 1/4 like we were thinking yesterday or the day before). Also, I'm not sure how durable this upcoming cold period will be. It's been the case for the last several years that we get mostly short-lived cold periods of a week to 10 days each. However, we still should get a trackable threat or two in that cold period just because it's January.
  13. Terpeast
    GEPS is more in EPS camp than GEFS fyi
  14. Terpeast
    Still in wait and see mode. GEFS as depicted will be a cutter on Jan 3, and then *maybe* a follow up wave that slides south of us similar to Jan 2022. Not the big dog we’re looking for, but it still leaves a path to modest success here.
  15. Terpeast
    Since we had such a fast PDO rise, I’d say we’ve had a +PDO atmospheric pattern and it’s taking time to make an imprint on the SSTs. But it’s still an uphill battle that becomes less and less the longer we hold this pattern.
  16. Terpeast
    Now we can’t use the extremely negative PDO as an “excuse”.
  17. Terpeast
    13.8. Close enough to forecast
  18. Terpeast
    19.4 now.
  19. Terpeast
    If you thought 18z gfs op was a disaster, look at the 18z ensembles. It is even better than 12z.
  20. Terpeast
    Currently 22.6. Forecast low is 13.
  21. Terpeast
    There's a reason op models are better limited to 168 hours, and then only ensembles after that. All we can take away is that the range of possibilities include a miss to the south, a HECS, and a cutter rainer. Or cold and dry.
  22. Terpeast
    Hail!
  23. Terpeast
    FWIW, despite the flak it gets these days, euro has been the best model this fall in terms of verification scores particularly the ensembles. Not saying the 12z op is correct about the HECS, but it’s a good sign that it’s even showing it as one possibility among a wide range of possibilities. We didn’t even see that last Feb before the good H5 looks collapsed.
  24. Terpeast
    High of 32, falling back to 31
  25. Terpeast
    The temp gradient between the northern third of this sub, the middle third, and the southern third must have been substantial. Lots of lows in the teens just to the north and mostly 20s down here.
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