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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Early peak and decay may give us a modoki nina, worst case scenario for the east if you like cold and snow.
  2. Terpeast
    Repeat of last years canada wildfires?
  3. Terpeast
    Thanks, that gives me a clue to which analogs would make a good starting set and add others based on QBO and PDO (and of course, adjust each warmer by a couple degrees...)
  4. Terpeast
    Quite the turnaround. >60% nino to >60% nina within 3 months. Has such a transition happened that quickly before?
  5. Terpeast
    Still a warm signal. Even if only +2 based on older analogs (pre 2016 super nino), one would need to adjust to today’s climate. Like +4 or something like that.
  6. Terpeast
    That’s not wrong
  7. Terpeast
    Yeah, I was disappointed as well. Even though I busted way too high on my snowfall outlook, looking back at how I based my CONUS temp and precip maps on the MEI, I think it actually proved an useful tool that led to fairly successful verification at least with the distribution of temp/precip anomalies. Enough to make me think that I can use it again in future outlooks... then they take it away.
  8. Terpeast
    Wow, that is news. I guess I won't be using the MEI for future outlooks then. Might have to go with RONI or use my own custom dataset or something. Bring it on. I'm not expecting a winter next year imby, so might as well go ape with this nina and hopefully the strong trades push those cooler waters all the way into the maritime content / west pacific warm pool while we're at it.
  9. Terpeast
    Saw a few flurries yesterday afternoon and lots of wind this morning
  10. Terpeast
    Next winter the sfc temp anomaly may look pretty much like this map if the pacific doesn't change and we get a +qbo nina. Could be historically warm and snowless for the immediate east coast up to coastal SNE. At some point, we've gotta get a dip that breaks the climo trend. Don't know when that's gonna be.
  11. Terpeast
    It’s very likely too late for a lowland snow, but I’m interested in the AIFS test case, too.
  12. Terpeast
    And yet he understands more about the climate and its trends than most mets and atmos scientists do.
  13. Terpeast
    I’m not sure if it will be even as long as one paragraph!
  14. Terpeast
    10 days. Last 3 are warm, and that’s going to verify for sure. Maybe even warmer Crap, i was using metric (been overseas for too long) here’s the fahrenheit version lol
  15. Terpeast
    As a rule of thumb, if I don’t see cold/BN temperatures in all of the last 3 days within my apple weather app, we’re not seeing cold anytime soon. Following this ^^ rule would have been much more accurate than models.
  16. Terpeast
    We may hit 70 next week
  17. Terpeast
    Of course, I’ll be out of the country most of April. So it’ll be a fun month for everyone here.
  18. Terpeast
    The upside was much higher, yes… but in the back of my mind, my greatest fear was a warmer version of a 1972-73, which was the only match if you looked at the PDO and ENSO. There was always a non-zero chance for a ratter, and to be fair, most of our subforum did avoid a rat. We just fell short of climo and way short of the upside, where our expectations were.
  19. Terpeast
    Used a linear trend from the 60s to date, and then applied a warmer temp correction on the 2006 snowfall to today’s climate based on that trend. One one hand, 2006 wasn’t that long ago so the correction may not have been more than a degree or so. Otoh, linear trend by definition doesn’t account for nonlinearity nor any acceleration in warming. So like I said, I’d take the under on my own numbers. Could just have been 3” of slop instead of a foot+
  20. Terpeast
    Yeah, its over. Not enough cold air to make something happen outside of interier northern New England or maybe at 3,000+ Don’t worry, I’ll stick around for severe weather season!
  21. Terpeast
    They discontinued the op and now consider the control run as the new op. The AIFS is their new AI-based model. Will be interesting to see how it performs.
  22. Terpeast
    IAD got 8" (the best banding was to the east over Fairfax county through Columbia, MD) and I used two methods to figure what it would be today in a warmer climate. One still 8", and another drops it to 4-5". I'd take the under on 8" though.
  23. Terpeast
    It absolutely can. 2022-23 is looking like a decent analog match. Nothing is off the table
  24. Terpeast
    near total lack of cold air except siberia
  25. Terpeast
    I didn’t already know this. Good intel, thanks!
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