Terpeast

40/23, still clear

I was expecting a mid-month warmup, but that's looking more and more temporary.

Yep, some really good ones out there! I don’t like to drink alcohol during week nights because I get up early for work (like 4:30 am), so I love NA brews because I can get my fix anytime not just on weekends. 44 and blazing sun. Can’t be good for temps in a marginal situation.

Reminds me of Jan 2024 when we got two northern stream waves that trended south with the PV push and hit us with a pair of 2-4"/3-5" snowfalls a week apart. And that was during an el nino winter, ironically. This is likely the best case scenario in a NS-dominant regime as depicted above.

The deamp trend is still alive and well. Maybe we should start looking for "cutters" along with blocking and... "right where we want it at 6 days out"?

I would love for that HRRR to verify

This is a better setup IF the EPS is right. Just a tad too far north and east

Closing the book on November and now enjoying the chilly temps. 37 degrees outside, feels like holidays inside.

The hope is the weaker PV and -QBO tips us more into -AO territory for late dec through Jan. That’s when we should get our chances.

He likes to attribute it to CC and west pacific warm pool and the pac jet being too strong, but while those things aren’t wrong, I attribute it to something much simpler - there is no blocking and no 50/50 low. Get those two in place, that high is staying put.

EPS has it too for next weekend… and an even stronger signal for 12/10. Not often I see something like this more than 10 days out:

It still has something for next weekend. Low coming from the gulf moving NE. Unfor it has the same flaw as the tuesday system, high sliding off the coast too quickly

I think you're good for an inch+

2-4” dc metro (mean)

Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe? Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet.

Not enough of a pressure gradient to drive cold air down back south

Interesting it shows an AK vortex but still ridging over the west coast. Probably because it is pos tilted. Orientation matters.

Overall idea hasn’t changed much, but we may get “luckier” with snowfall amounts.

And the SPV will weaken again in mid late dec - might be helpful for early mid Jan too

PSU will be happy too

Back edge upon me, hasn’t flipped from ra/ip mix. But was still fun. Onto the next!

GEFS did well a month ago when the MJO was still in 6. But EPS is now catching up in forecast performance since we went into 7. And don’t sleep on the AIFS ensembles for mid-latitude 500mb at 6-15 days out. It’s been wiping the floor lately.

Hard to believe it’s not even december yet. Feels good to have frozen and be tracking multiple threats. Sleet continues, 33.8

Temp getting interesting. 33.6 and dropping, dewpoint 29. Might end as snow before precip moves out? (Ashburn VA)

Didnt see anything faling, but deck shows that it had snowed and sleeted. Calling it a trace. Edit: still sleeting