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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I’m under yellows per radar, but rain is not that heavy. I think there is some bright banding going on up there. It’s getting close (column is starting to cool)
  2. Terpeast
    Over under 4”, those who get the norlun will be safely over
  3. Terpeast
    I don’t think the globals have value at this point when calculating how much qpf falls before/after the flip and doing the math. The CAMs already account for this, they hardly have any accumulation (0.5” or less) anywhere but the high elevs until 22-23z. Even if we lop off an inch across the board due to melting, the forecast will still verify on the middle to low end. We won’t hit the 90th percentile numbers so I think we can put that to bed, but the forecast is still very much in play.
  4. Terpeast
    Down another half degree. 37.3
  5. Terpeast
    Lost a degree in the half hour. 37.8 0.15” so far
  6. Terpeast
    I’ll see your 3 miles east and then raise you another 10 miles west. May the best hand win
  7. Terpeast
    There’s a “ridge” a mile to the west of me peaking at 475-500 ft, and I haven’t noticed any difference. But if talking about going up past the bigger hill on rt 7 west of leesburg, then yeah they’ve done better.
  8. Terpeast
    Yes please
  9. Terpeast
    That would be a narrow miss east from me
  10. Terpeast
    I’m at 350, 7 miles NW of IAD. My relatively mid elevation hasn’t hurt me before in marginal events, but this time it might
  11. Terpeast
    39/37 rain My station may actually be running a tad warm compared to neighboring pws, most are at 37 actually
  12. Terpeast
    Before getting too excited/disappointed about the norlun placement, I want to reiterate that we won’t know where it sets up until it does set up. If you’re looking out and getting crushed under dark greens on radar, that’s when you’ll know (and those outside looking in will also know).
  13. Terpeast
    I sure hope so, we’d be right in the middle of that if correct
  14. Terpeast
    Preface by noting two different forecast time stamps. We should know where the norlun is setting up by 22z-00z (5-7 pm est) based on radar sigs from the CAMs: My guess is we will know by 5-6 pm
  15. Terpeast
    Yeah, even those seeing sn/rasn now probably won’t accumulate much beyond an inch until everyone flips after 5 pm still, I’d feel better if i’m at 35-36 now
  16. Terpeast
    37.9, oof!
  17. Terpeast
    It doesn’t flip us until 22z (5 pm) and still gives us 6” give or take
  18. Terpeast
    Raining good, nothing mixing in. 37/35 still
  19. Terpeast
    Most pws obs around me are at 36
  20. Terpeast
    Consistent with my 37/35 atm. Need a lot of work to get down to freezing.
  21. Terpeast
    Your guess is as good as mine. It’ll be a narrow band only 10-20 miles wide. Either we’re in a good spot for it or not. We’ll probably know the answer to this early tomorrow evening when it begins to form.
  22. Terpeast
    I think there’s a limit to how far east it’ll go as the sfc low track is pretty much locked in +/- 30 miles, and most models have had the norlun from HGR - W loudoun - Fauquier though it shifted east by maybe 10-20 miles on 00z. I don’t think it’ll shift further east by more than 10-20 miles, and certainly not to bmore unless the storm actually changes track
  23. Terpeast
    36/31, ticking down
  24. Terpeast
    Gfs shifted that norlun east every run over the last 6 runs, while keeping the ccb and slp largely the same. Interesting
  25. Terpeast
    It wants to put that norlun over us
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