Terpeast

That's what I want to see in order to get in on the action. Otherwise I'll (and anyone to the S and W of me) will get shut out.

This was a good suite for the mesos. Could be the start of a positive trend for many of us who had been looking from the outside in.

Anyone down south got anything from this?

Seems ukie/rgem/canadian have the band further nw than the gfs, and iirc euro/nam is in the middle. Hrrr ticked nw but was still closer to gfs. If I got it wrong, chalk it up to too many models and lack of sleep haha

Hasn't that area been constantly shafted the last several years even though we had good snows the last couple of winters? I'm rooting hard for you folks up there!

Tough call for them. Take a little extra time to think it through

It’s been while since we’ve seen a legit CAD setup where we get a front end thump before flip with primary lows to the NW of us. Probably because Canada was torched the last few winters iirc. Now with Canada being cold, we may have a shot at a CAD event where it’s not just a cold rain for everyone east of the Alleghenies.

I was just thinking this. Max strip may verify slightly NW of what’s being modeled.

Beautiful. I’m gonna enjoy this one, until the next model shows zip for mby.

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows. Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

Indeed it does. Previous rgem runs had almost nothing. That said, you’re in a much better position than I am for this one.

One of the 4 features I’ve been talking about, the negative WPO, is starting to fade or weaken. I’m starting to think that with the extended -PNA through the rest of this month, the warmth is going to last past the new year. We still haw canada cold, mjo projected to return to into 7/8, and stratosphere activity (with a lag). With these still in the picture, cold may return around the second week of January. The PNA may also flip positive for the majority of next month as well.

Or just one day of 70 before strong fropa, succeeding a week of 50s

Yeah, not a terrible run for us snow wise. Not that it’ll verify (probably)

I'll take my 2.5" so that Balt & NW folks get their warning snows.

I think NG prices move mostly on 2-3 week outlooks, but have no idea past 3 weeks. If the 4th week is going to be cold, and that 4th week rolls forward into week 3, NG prices will jump just the same.

I’ll take the euro. Will be checking the 500mb vort maps on each model to compare and see what we need to happen upstairs.

The rmm plots only give us part of the picture. I tend to use rmm plots in conjunction with hollmover plots to see where the forcing is the strongest and most dominant. For example, if forcing is strong at 8, but also weak at 5/6, the rmm plot might show weak amplitude in 7/8.

Eastern Loudoun here. Perhaps a coating if lucky

I didn’t think this was totally unexpected. What would have been a surprise is a much longer stay in phase 8. I’ve been watching the MJO a lot lately, and the little rmm “loop” told us that some of the forcing would be pulled back from 8 to 6, resetting the 6>7>8 progression. Hollmovers showed this pretty clearly. I think we will see another incursion into 8 by years end into january. This may actually be part of a long term shift of the standing wave from 4-6 to 7-8, which will take a while but we may actually be seeing this play out.

Crazy how that came true a month out (albeit with smaller amounts)

I’ll take a blend of euro and gfs for mby

Good points. For the last few months, these modeled warm ups got muted or vanished as they got closer in time. I do think this upcoming one has legs, it’s just happening about a week later than I originally thought (mid-dec).

Good analysis. We want to see heights rise a bit to the east so we can get some moisture and lift up over our area. Hoping to see this trend continue a bit further.

It was my first winter back in the area since 2016, and that jan blizzard was still fresh in mind when I was telling my wife what to expect from the winters here. Maybe I jinxed it