Terpeast

I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e

Yeah, nice thing about this forum is you just know before even looking at the models

Remember the old days when it was just 2-3 models? Now we have dozens. This hobby is so tiring

Yeah, I'm still giving it one more day but agree we're running out of time

Pacific flow is too fast to back the kicker vort off, so might as well bring it closer and phase to bring that sucker up north.

Based on all these posts about the kicker kicking the ULL out to sea, I think there's a bit of a misunderstanding of what a "kicker" really is and what role it plays. Some extra vorticity behind the main low doesn't really act to "kick" it east. The main issue is wave spacing. If spaced far enough apart, there's little or no effect... the ULL is on its own and may or may not close/neg tilt depending on the overall trough/ridge orientation and/or any upstream blocking if any. If spaced close enough though, they begin to phase and pull the ULL north, as has happened on 1/25/00. But if they are closely spaced but not close enough to phase, i.e. poor wave spacing, the flow becomes flattened in between, making it harder for the ULL to deepen. I think we've went over this before. It's not so much of a "kicker" but wave spacing.

you can see how the "kicker" starts to pull that ULL up north instead of booting it out to sea - it was close enough to do that.

Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well....

Yeah, I've been tracking storms for this region long enough to never count out a north trend in the last 1-2 days. What keeps me optimistic is the precip shield has been ticking further west all the way across VA in some of the credible models. Otherwise, it could be confined all the way south into eastern NC, at which point I'd have been ready to write this off. It was almost looking that way yesterday, and then it trended west last night into this morning.

I don't think we're any closer to the final solution yet, but we have 1 less day to make those large shifts.

Or speed it up and phase into the 500mb low, pull it west and north and it's a hit

Looks better than 0z, but not as good as 18z

So a 60 mile shift north and we're getting the goods. 60 miles at a lead time of 4 days is nothing. Also notice the highest snowfall has backed to the south of us (S VA) in 6z instead of remaining east in 0z.

Seeing all that snow just next door south of us makes me think we're definitely still in the game. Like PSU said, we just want that to trend north at game time. If that snow was to the east of us instead of south, this thing is DOA.

Going to bed now, y’all bring the euro around. Counting on you!

I don’t hate this run. These storms like to tick north at game time, and we’re right on the edge 4-5 days out.

Hang on, we need it to pivot and turn north. Let’s see

Less connection with the tpv

Precip shield developing in TN/KY

Better changes, s/w digging more west and higher heights east of it

Quick note about 0z data ingest… it’ll most likely take a few runs for the models to gel after that. It won’t be an instant change at 0z. More like a trend from 0z to 12z, then we should have a better idea of the track.

Still 4-5 days out. Close is good.

Model reshuffling in progress… and I don’t think we’re done yet! The NS wave practically has to do a full lap around the hudson bay and phase with a piece from the GOA/Alaska vortex. Very complex and very volatile. So far 18z (and 0z NAM) jumped our way instead of the other way.

18z already in? I don’t see it

We’re not out of this yet.