Terpeast

Yes, a weaker pv supports blocking. It doesn’t have to reverse for blocking to suddenly appear.

I think that scenario is less likely based on ensembles, they don’t really support the suppressed scenario. Agree timing is vital, 6z Euro AI ensembles show something similar to 0z EPS with undercutting energy under the block but ridge bridging happens immediately after passing us.

Good call. I’ll start. Focusing on 0z EPS. Next window of interest, s/w running into confluence thanks to 50/50 low: Keeping cold air in place: While area of low pressure stays to the south of us: And precip distribution looks good:

Incredible how close your numbers have been. You’ll probably beat last year, but I had 16.9” last winter and I’m at 12.8” so far. In 23-24 I had 13.2”

Max wind gust 41, lowest wind chill -1 It’s not just the numbers, it’s also the duration of this event that makes it stand out. Just took out the trash, and the wind really cuts through your bones. And I’m in a relatively protected area.

Based on those maps, I think so yes. If no delay, the streams will phase too soon and cut. Instead the lead NS wave can reinforce cold air while the second wave approaches The other end of the spectrum is the wave getting delayed so much that confluence leaves and its too warm by the time it gets here. But i think thats less likely because the ao/nao seem to be trending more negative in recent runs.

Having the snowpack already in place made it look more of a wintry scene despite so little qpf

Proud of my home state but I’ve unfortunately been too far north for the best snows apart from Jan 25. One of those winters I guess

Been years since I’ve had this, but so damn good

12/5: 1.5” 12/14: 1.0” 1/1: 0.2” 1/17: 0.3” 1/25: 9.5” (5.5 sn 4.0 ip) 2/6: 0.3” Total: 12.8”

Overperformed relative to my expectations. 0.3”. Just played outside with my daughter

Enough to call it 0.1”

Light snow finally

Nothing. Band split apart and went around me

MJO going into phase 3 by mid-late Feb. MJO 1 (where we currently are) in a weak nina (-GLAAM regime) is actually warm for the east, 2 less so, and 3 is cold. Usually assume a few days lag, so the "warm up" behind the frigid saturday makes sense.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar storm track as the Jan 25 one. Not saying same results exactly, but more of a general idea where it tracks towards the TVA/OHV region with gulf moisture feed, and then coastal transfer. Obviously a further south track across TVA then across S VA would yield better results for our backyards.

And this general look is now within 10 days, lowering the chances of yet another rug. Can still lose it, but the idea of a wave undercutting the decaying block has been on the ensembles for at least a few days now.

Thats been the theme for 6+ months now

If I wanted to troll the forum, I would post this: Oh wait... (its an op run 10 days away, so don't take it too seriously)

I wondered the same thing when I saw my temp at 42

Looks like the follow up is for C/S VA instead of NC... does this trend continue? We'll find out after the commercial

I'm no expert on the stratosphere, but it looks like it's about to split into two, which promotes more HL blocking?

Bad news, aigfs is an op model so little confidence in its blizzard scenario. The GOOD news is ensembles (including euro and ai euro) do have some support for that scenario by undercutting a s/w under HL blocking. The ens means is smoothed out, but if you can “read between the lines” you can see a sharper trough or ULL swing across the mid-south towards us from feb 13-16.

As a glass half full kind of guy, I’m with you. The very fact that NC got their HECS should give us a lot of optimism about our future winters. We will get ours one of these winters, and many more to come. Instead and unfortunately, some choose to look at it as a zero-sum game where we get mad when folks south of us are getting more snow than we do. I also don’t think we’re done with winter yet, but if we really are, we have an El Nino to look forward to. It’ll probably be a milder winter than the last two, but at least we’ll have our chances with an active STJ.

Lock it up