Terpeast

Energy coming down from sw canada at 108, stronger than previous runs. Too early to tell

I’ll do it for the next 20 min then I have to pass on the baton. Nothing noteworthy up to Jan 20 yet.

Based on precip shields, I think gfs and aigfs are converging closer to each other. Whether it’s correct or not, idk. We’ll get better clues at 00z when new upper air data is ingested.

Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)

yeah, colder than 6z

If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side.

With the way models are looking, I think someone somewhere is going to get a really severe ice storm.

Yeah, its like we have three different camps instead of the usual two

The non-AI GFS isn’t actually that far off from the AIGFS at 06z. I don’t really trust AI precip fields as they’re not typically trained for those, but its actually not too far off from the op.

Wow, I didn't know that. From his writing I assumed he was in college or just past that. @bncho You've got a bright future, kid. Keep it up, whatever you're doing.

gfs and euro still worlds apart for Sunday. We need those recon flights yesterday haha

Fringed

No there isn’t. I was looking at 12z

Some maps I look at are for commercial use and can’t share publicly

El nino during a solar min? Not trying to speak for Chuck…

EPS has a mean of 6-8” for the dmv, at least double that of gefs

Not sure which storm you were talking about specifically, but there was one coastal storm in feb 2023 that dropped 1.3” qpf imby and more in other places. Temps were 37-40. I’ve wondered if we copied and pasted that storm onto the 60s-80s winters, it would have been 13”+ I’ll add that after last winter and this December, I feel a lot better about future winter prospects compared to how I felt through 22-23 and 23-24. Those two winters were just plain ugly temp wise, but we’ve been getting colder temps so that hasn’t been the issue as much as dryness and the lack of STJ moisture.

Ensemble support, too.

What would make a difference is whether that pacific trough breaks through. If it stops short in the GOA, it'll keep the +PNA ridge going. If it breaks through into western canada, the +PNA will break down and we go warmer (speaking generally across CONUS, east may be slowest to warm even in that scenario).

This one is yours. The Ralph Wiggum Storm. Question is, are you gonna deliver?

I'm just as annoyed as the next guy at the pull back in trends, but in this case I don't think the GL low is to blame. If it were an arctic high, I think it would be even more suppressive/OTS.

Probably best to stick with a personal rule of not getting invested until 3 days before the event - just like the old days. We've seen models, especially the GFS and its ensembles, show something good at 5 days and we think it's "in range" only to have them pull back at 4 days. I also think that maybe the balloon launch cancellations out west are having an effect on the models at the 4-5 day range.

Brutal hobby

Good news, PNA is finally trending up in the 11-15 day! 6-10 will be moderately negative but not extremely so.

Looks like euro was a step back for Sunday, but maybe some snow showers Fri-Sat