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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Or speed it up and phase into the 500mb low, pull it west and north and it's a hit
  2. Terpeast
    Looks better than 0z, but not as good as 18z
  3. Terpeast
    So a 60 mile shift north and we're getting the goods. 60 miles at a lead time of 4 days is nothing. Also notice the highest snowfall has backed to the south of us (S VA) in 6z instead of remaining east in 0z.
  4. Terpeast
    Seeing all that snow just next door south of us makes me think we're definitely still in the game. Like PSU said, we just want that to trend north at game time. If that snow was to the east of us instead of south, this thing is DOA.
  5. Terpeast
    Going to bed now, y’all bring the euro around. Counting on you!
  6. Terpeast
    I don’t hate this run. These storms like to tick north at game time, and we’re right on the edge 4-5 days out.
  7. Terpeast
    Hang on, we need it to pivot and turn north. Let’s see
  8. Terpeast
    Less connection with the tpv
  9. Terpeast
    Precip shield developing in TN/KY
  10. Terpeast
    Better changes, s/w digging more west and higher heights east of it
  11. Terpeast
    Quick note about 0z data ingest… it’ll most likely take a few runs for the models to gel after that. It won’t be an instant change at 0z. More like a trend from 0z to 12z, then we should have a better idea of the track.
  12. Terpeast
    Still 4-5 days out. Close is good.
  13. Terpeast
    Model reshuffling in progress… and I don’t think we’re done yet! The NS wave practically has to do a full lap around the hudson bay and phase with a piece from the GOA/Alaska vortex. Very complex and very volatile. So far 18z (and 0z NAM) jumped our way instead of the other way.
  14. Terpeast
    18z already in? I don’t see it
  15. Terpeast
    We’re not out of this yet.
  16. Terpeast
    may be hopium, but I remember bluewave posting a year or so ago a 3-run animation of the Euro that had a 2021 (or 2022? can't remember) storm 1000 miles OTS in one run, and then a NYC bullseye hit 2 runs later.
  17. Terpeast
    Thought it’d be today, but…
  18. Terpeast
    Its a jump west, not enough to hit us but it could be a reversal of its ongoing east trend. Maybe just meeting in the middle?
  19. Terpeast
    Crazy how GEFS and EPS are trending in opposite directions. We don't usually see that.
  20. Terpeast
    The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts. You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low
  21. Terpeast
    True, and euro has a bigger difference. Very low confidence situation, but if I were a betting man, I think GFS will eventually cave to Euro
  22. Terpeast
    GFS and Euro suites are going in opposite directions. Just checked CMC to see if we have a tiebreaker, but it's too waffly.
  23. Terpeast
    Funny but true
  24. Terpeast
    Reached a low of 6
  25. Terpeast
    Next window of interest feb 5-7
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