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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I have a feeling the gfs will hold onto the big storm until tomorrow 12z or even later, then do the most spectacular cave we have ever seen. By that time, the damage will have been done.
  2. Terpeast
    Thats a legit ULL, we’ve gotten something like this before when getting missed by the coastal itself
  3. Terpeast
    Looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z at least to get better consensus. Yet another can-kick. Unless you toss the gfs AND its ensembles, then maybe we’re getting closer to the right idea. Not sure I agree with the trough going neg tilt so fast given how the progressive flow has been.
  4. Terpeast
    (not that I'm buying the GFS, just surprised that it doubled down and went west instead of shifting east like the other models)
  5. Terpeast
  6. Terpeast
    Great news
  7. Terpeast
    Dear god
  8. Terpeast
    Big clue on where this is going.
  9. Terpeast
    I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both.
  10. Terpeast
    Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario
  11. Terpeast
    Not a fan of euro for mby but its probably closer to being correct
  12. Terpeast
    Exactly! You’re really getting it. This is why we need blocking to slow down the flow a bit, and La Nina winters are notorious for the northern stream to push the jet streaks too far out resulting in suppression or fish storms (and that NC blizzard). There are exceptions to this like Jan 1996 and 2000, and there’s a small chance that this one could be added to this list. That is, if this whole thing trends west and not the typical east leading up to game time.
  13. Terpeast
    Great analysis! For jet streak placements, I look at 200-300 mb for that. it’s close to a classic double jet streak system where the SLP deepens under the left exit region of the jet streak off the carolinas overlapped with the right rear entrance region of the other jet streak off new england. same with cmc euro, though, isn’t quite a double jet streak - more like one long jet stream rounding the lw trough
  14. Terpeast
    That the models shifted in our favor after that sampling and ingest is a good sign
  15. Terpeast
    Good trends, want to see that hold/continue through tomorrow night
  16. Terpeast
    Wasn’t using wxbell, different algos I guess. Probably the big dogs got knocked off this ensemble set
  17. Terpeast
    Not really for here, but yes for NJ
  18. Terpeast
    I said wait until 12z wed, and here we are. Looks like euro can kicked us to tomorrow or friday
  19. Terpeast
    Will be interesting to see how the euro shifts for 12z today...
  20. Terpeast
    Main takeaway so far is we're not out of this yet. I was hoping for higher confidence today, but looks like confidence will remain low until at least 0z Friday. Yes it sounds like I'm kicking the can, and maybe I am. But all these vorts flying around and a minor change can make a huge difference. This isn't a typical SS wave casually approaching from the SW in a linear manner.
  21. Terpeast
    Since I’ve moved back, I’ve averaged 11” imby but that includes the dreadful 22-23 of a winter. So if I take that one out, my avg goes up to 14” over the last 3 winters. Pretty similar to the early 90s iirc, was kinda disappointing after the late 80s which was nuts. At least we’ve had colder stretches this winter and last than those years.
  22. Terpeast
    This is why I said to wait until tomorrow
  23. Terpeast
    Yeah, it doubled down. But remember it's not as dispersive as it should be at this range. The only reason we're giving it credibility is that its 500mb verification scores are excellent.
  24. Terpeast
    I did notice that although the vort was stronger on the mean, it was broader and the tilt wasn't quite as negative (to my eyes). Starting to wonder if it's an increase in dispersiveness among the ensembles before they "reset" (converge) towards a likelier outcome (this typically happens at 4-6 day lead times, where AI ensembles have the opposite problem - under dispersiveness).
  25. Terpeast
    EPS mean stronger vort than previous run. Too soon to tell for qpf, mslp, but I don’t think its a giant step back.
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