Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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I think we can say this overperformed for the n/w suburbs
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Spoke too soon. Snowing again. May get another 0.1” to push my season total up to 3”
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12/5: 1.5” 12/14: 1.0” 1/1: 0.2” 1/17: 0.3” Total: 3.0”
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Stopped here. Calling it a 0.2” car topper and grassy dusting. Hope those to the east of me get more with that yellow band if it holds together.
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We got the snow globe in Ashburn, just jebwalked with my daughter. Good for the soul
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actual flakes coming down. Still very light
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Mostly graupel falling. Ashburn
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Looking ahead to sunday (tomorrow?) I see the 00z models trended more NW, giving us a couple inches?
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There is indeed ensemble support for jan 25-27 and again 28-30. Don’t know why some are saying otherwise. Jan 22 is the only threat that doesn’t have much support.
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Dusting. 0.1”. 37
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Got a dusting overnight
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Looks like the Euro is favoring this scenario by driving the GOA low and torching Canada. But GEFS disagrees a bit, it stops short of doing what the euro did and instead retrogrades the trough towards the aleutians.
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GOA low might break through and torch the whole North America. We’ll likely hold onto the cold the longest, and I hope its only temporary as mjo tries to get into 8 and weeklies pop another -ao in early feb. But once canada torches, it’ll take a long time for us to get cold again. edit: euro does this, but gefs (12z) doesn’t quite punch the goa low through
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Right now it looks like that window closes Jan 30, so we better score by then.
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Light event. onto the next one you’ve got this. Kinda hard to do php with a hungry baby demanding more milk
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I’ll let stormtracker take over the rest
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Feels like a race between cold and precip at 150
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Gulf moisture coming into TVA, boundary further north. We may have temp issues for jan 22
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Vort consolidating over MT at 120. Less cold press over us. Again too early
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Energy coming down from sw canada at 108, stronger than previous runs. Too early to tell
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I’ll do it for the next 20 min then I have to pass on the baton. Nothing noteworthy up to Jan 20 yet.
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Based on precip shields, I think gfs and aigfs are converging closer to each other. Whether it’s correct or not, idk. We’ll get better clues at 00z when new upper air data is ingested.
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Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)
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yeah, colder than 6z
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If the precip max is south of is, we have higher probs of being on the snow side.
