Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Fwiw AI GFS doubles down on its 12z look. (It’s a relatively new and untested AI model unlike AIFS)
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Back edge approaching. All i got was a few flurries and sleet. This storm sucks here. Congrats to those to the S and E
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50 member breakdown: 33 dmv hits, 16 suppressed, 1 incomprehensible so that favors 2/3 odds of a non suppressed hit, and even some suppressed solutions still get us with at least a few inches
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Flurries. Microscopic flakes
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Based on radar i may get a shot at some flurries
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Here’s AIFS ensembles (which has been cleaning up in verification). MSLP mean is slightly south of the op aifs low position, by maybe 50 miles. But better clustering to the NW of the mean position
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Just checked - AIFS op has been beating all other op models based on 6-10 day verification scores at 500mb over the past 3 months. Let that sink in. Today’s 12z run:
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You can see a secondary swath across the deep south, so its clear that there are a few suppressed members. But still are in the minority. The op just happens to be one of them this run. Would not be surprised to see a very different 18z op run.
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Not sure about the ops, but AIFS ensembles have been doing an excellent job at 500mb.
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If the weeklies are correct, we’ll be mostly shielded from the canada torch and then winter ends on Feb 23 (unless march does something crazy)
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Just looked at all ensembles this morning. Nothing really changed. Jan 22 never had support. Jan 25-28 window is what they are keying on. I think the warmer rainy cutter scenario is the least likely. Snow/ice storm most likely, with the likelihood of a suppressed system somewhere in between closer to the lower end.
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Big fat zero here
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I noticed gfs is trending that wave faster. Agree we need it to slow down a bit
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Nothing really. Just the usual
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Got a point there. This mornings WWAs came a little late for northern MD
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I guess they just disregarded or didn’t even check the latest models that went warmer and cut back on snow accums. Or maybe they didn’t think the new runs were correct.
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True, but that means we’re banking on rates to get this to work out for most.
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0z nam a little better for mby, but temps stay at 33-34 during the heaviest precip. Sounding is (wet) snow, but will have a tough time accumulating towards advisory criteria.
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30/27 currently, mostly clear but not that dry
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Many of us have become extremely attuned to the possibility of a rug like so many before, that if an ens run loses an inch from 10 days out, they go off the cliff like lemmings
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Yeah, I’m def gonna read their AFD to get a feel for what they’re thinking. It’s also sunday, not like its during a rush hour commute.
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Wow, that’s bullish. I don’t know if I would have issued a WWA
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At least this will be more than I got this morning
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Lean on ensembles after D5 folks…
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Agree with this map, but a little worried about temps just above the sfc. Prob forecasts give mby 40% chance of reaching 1”
