Alfoman

Not sure if we will hit below 33 until after the precip already moves out - will still be fun to watch the snow fall tonight. Just think the amp and shift north definitely made the already marginal temp situation for DC proper worse! I'll take my 1-2 and run though!

I think the Euro evolution is our best shot to get our big (or larger) ticket storm but it is going to be a delicate solution to achieve. We really need that NS to drop down and begin the phase at the exact right moment for this to work and even if it does, the interior is favored in this kind of setup. Good news is we did see the SS dip deeper and a less noisy Eastern Canada allowing more cold air to filter in but Euro much more aggressive with that TPV lobe. Even with a +NAO in place, with all that energy rotating around in Canada, we could see a phased storm time itself correctly as long as we can get the STJ to actually produce a potent wave or two instead of that sheared flat shit it keeps throwing our way.

For once this season, we got the dreaded north + warmer trend within the final hours... Won't make the biggest difference in most places but DC-proper definitely forfeits their max potential due to temps during onset of precip and worse dynamics during the event. SAD.

GFS slightly north of 12z and 18z position at 84 hours...this is not a winner in the slighest Hope Euro and the EPS tell a different picture and the GFS is not leading the way on this

NS farther north at 72 hours, our shortwave more amped - less confluence, less cold air, lower surface pressure

Almost identical low placement to 12Z, just more amped and axis of precip moves north

Surface low slightly more north and more amped through 72 hours Edit: We need this to slow down or our cold press continues to get worse moving into the window, GFS progressively speeding this up slightly each run

This one seems out of reach yet we haven't played our ultimate trap card just yet.... Open a new thread

Surface low just behind WV at Hour 108, definitely a tad bit faster than 12Z

Tad bit quicker so far and thevort closes off 6 hours sooner

Last several storms we've looked at this winter, the GFS has trended towards increased wave separation in the medium range (3-5 days) and has lead the others in that regard - including the initial Jan storm (rain here) and I believe both of our small snowstorms mid-month. While not an ideal setup for us, I won't say its dead until we're inside 3 days

Can't wait for us to track the end of February period and get a big storm on the models...only for most of us to miss it to the south or north after all the anticipation FRINGEEEEEEEEEDDDDD

If the last two weeks of February into the beginning of March verify as they are modeled at the moment - you couldn't say that the seasonals were completely off base. They're used as a guide to the longwave pattern progression, no one is using them to pinpoint exact week-by-week shifts. Being off by two weeks and then getting it right would be a crazy good win for the seasonals.

Wall to wall cold and snow for a chosen two week period during the winter is just absolutely never a guarantee when you live in and around the MA region. Mod El-Nino or not, breaks and warm ups happen even in our greatest of years.

On this note - interesting progression of the snow outputs on the GFS Ens the past few runs. While it is likely skewed by a few members that bomb out, nice to see a strengthening of the output along the MA coast