Alfoman

Members
  • Content Count

    83
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Alfoman

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KATL
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Tucker, GA

Recent Profile Visitors

461 profile views
  1. BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DELTA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 93.4W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
  2. Winds lagging at the surface still (90-95kt) but this is not far away from becoming a strong cat 3. Warrants an upgrade to 115 mph for sure. Recon going to be around over the next 2-3 hours as structural improvements continue and Delta continues to at least try and get some convection upshear...going to be interesting to say the least Edit: this is the sonde in the SW eyewall...
  3. 954.2 mb with 91kt SFMR in the SW quadrant on that pass For reference, the last pass (around 4 hours ago) in the SW quad had SFMR values closer to 65kt
  4. 965.3 mb (~ 28.51 inHg) per recon
  5. Absolutely crazy to think we are still 7-9 hours away from landfall with the storm so close to shore
  6. Eye developing an elongated oval shape past hour, she's definitely feeling the land interaction right now. Her southern eyewall is ramping up as well with stronger cat 3 velocities on radar
  7. I won't believe its closed off until the dry slot can stay away for longer than an hour at a time
  8. Going to be an interesting pass by recon, this is the best that northern eyewall has looked all day on radar, even if the southern eye wall refuses to close off. Velocities of 100-110 mph becoming more consolidated just a few thousand feet up on the KMOB radar. Let's see if some of the higher wind speeds are able to mix down over the next few hours Land friction will also likely help Sally consolidate her structure closer to landfall
  9. Incredibly important context here that I was unaware of, I apologize! Shows cat 2 wind speeds are not too far from the surface nonetheless
  10. KVOA oil rig reporting 87 kt sustained wind speed with gusts to 94 kts EDIT: This is 160 m above the surface, NOT surface level
  11. Absolutely agree and it seems like this is Sally's first attempt at making a more solidified core to continue intensification tonight into tomorrow. Last 30 minutes on IR you can see transverse banding forming along the western CDO with an expansion of convective coverage finally into the southern/southwestern portions of the storm. Lots of lightning in the large hot tower in the developing eyewall segment you mentioned. The LLC is still displaced and tilted with height but I expect it to slowly align over the next 12 hours. You can even see a mid-level spin on the KEVX radar right now just NE of the actual center of the storm. Sally may not have her shit together yet, but she's setting herself up for gradual intensification tonight/tomorrow.
  12. This is going to be a tricky forecast. The trough moving east early next week truly might not be strong enough to pick up the system northward as it erodes the western portion of the ridge over the southeast. Of course, a stronger system would feel the poleward pull at the 200 mb level more so than a weaker one. However, this could easily meander along the coast for a few days. Luckily, the trough would provide some moderate northeasterly shear and it seems as if the GFS indicates a decoupling from the upper level anticyclone as it nears LA. Things just got interesting though.
  13. The stronger the system is initially, the more it will lift. The trough axis has trended deeper and stronger on the GFS the past 4/5 runs as well, which increases the likelihood the system moves poleward as it gets closer to the Caribbean. Still have days to go until we have a well developed LLC and the models decipher the upper level situation to a better degree. But as of now, most signs indicate a pretty fish storm to track or a potential Bermuda threat.
  14. I think the rapid speed is one of the only real inhibiting factors at the moment. Looking at the profiles, dry air is still an issue ahead of the system, but generally Nana has created a fairly moist pocket around her with healthy expanding outflow to the east and west. Still some shear to the south of the system, but developing anticyclone in the upper levels will keep the environment favorable until landfall. Definitely could reach hurricane strength tonight into tomorrow
  15. Jesus Christ. If you think this season is somehow inactive or "disappointing," you likely would have lost your mind tracking a season like 2014 or 2015 (just from recent memory). We just had one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes in US history before September.