Alfoman

Delicate balance with amplification and placement of the low pressure off the coast with the GFS progression at 500. Would not worry too much into the details as of now, we just need the energy spacing to be close to where it is. GFS already doing it's classic energy getting sheared and held out for longer in the SW US though that we saw in the 120-180 hour range all too often last year.

One of the biggest caveats to the first week or two of December is the SE Ridge setting up as the cold slowly propagates eastward. While I do think it gets beat down as we head through the month, would likely hinder our chances for a bit. Hoping for a repeat of last year with the ridge amplification being grossly overstated in the long range routinely.

Would absolutely love some TV snow to start the season if we could get some wet flakes to fly...

BWI: 16.8" DCA : 13.9" IAD : 15.9" RIC :7.1" SBY:5.9"

I've been tracking hurricanes for two decades and nothing in the Atlantic has come close to the perfection, meteorologically speaking, that Melissa is achieving tonight. Absolute textbook steam engine...no words.

Hilarious trend on the last three GFS runs - amplified, more ridging out west, phase with the NS in decent spot. Feel like we've seen the GFS do this around the 120-180 hr range just to slowly flatten/shear the energy over time as we get closer to the event. Rinse and repeat. CMC with a very different view of things - let's see if the Euro budges at all

That fluffy white powder

God we're grasping at straws but f it - we have nothing to lose. NAM shift is being caused by the spacing from the energy on the Pac Coat being pulled back. You can see the heights building between the TPV and SW out in Wyoming giving the TPV room to stay more West and deepen a bit further. CMC had a noticeable pullback of the energy out west as well - not really noticing much of a shift on the GFS tho. Regardless - too little too late for most of us, but hope it's on to something for once.

Don't forget that dews are going to be near 0 to start the precipitation tomorrow - it will take time and a considerable amount of precip falling first to saturate that column. Edit: up towards the DC area

It’s time we put some respect on the GFS’s name for standing firm the last [emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]-[emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]]] days. We discounted it but it never fully wavered from its south and OTS solutions. Our shortwave is coming onshore out west shortly. I fear if the trends continue into [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]Z we can call this one what it is.

It's pretty close but that strange elongated TPV with a more north orientation than the Euro is what causes this result. Honestly a good reminder how delicate the 500mb evolution can be for the resulting surface translation. Hope its wrong lol

I guess you could say there's an F word for every situation in this forum

My excitement is muted because the GFS is on it's own with the moisture feed and boundary location. Need Euro/CMC support before the F word can safely be used for runs like that

Just watched an OP GFS run with four back to back to back to back storm potentials in the general area...are you not entertained?