Buddy1987

Very impressive jet streak that will be screaming overtop the region today (upwards of 55-65kts), aiding in lift and shear parameters to sky rocket. Also allowing winds to translate down to the surface. Even though the danger exists gotta love these types of setups.

Finished up with somewhere around 2-3” compacted. Currently have heavy sleet and zr mix coming down. Not bad considering I thought it would be rain by now. Temp right at 32

It is just dumping snow here right now. Meatball sized flakes coming down. Impressive to say the least. To add, best part is with these bands the temp went from 39 to 33 so once evaporational cooling commenced the temp plummets. Starting to get slushy on non grassy surfaces now, including driveway.

It is just dumping snow here right now. Meatball sized flakes coming down. Impressive to say the least.

Snow picking up in intensity here in ROA. Mod-heavy dbz’s inbound from Blacksburg and points west. Hoping to overcome borderline temps here.

Starting to snow lightly here. Mod-heavy dbz’s inbound. Should be interesting next couple hours if it can stay pure snow.

0z GFS trending wetter as well through the TN valley at 24 hrs.

Bring it on!! haha

Dang you're not kidding. over an inch of liquid for both our areas. More than double of what nam is producing. Now that would be a heck of a storm.

Pretty hefty warm nose showing up however. May be time to tame my expectations here. Sleet storms stink but they're better than nothing.

I honestly dont know what to really expect out of this storm. Part of me has set the bar a little too high but then the other part of me wonders does southeast flow, moisture transport and lift make this thing over perform and continue the precip longer than what the models are showing in some instances? I guess safe for our areas is maybe a 2-4 type ordeal, then .25 of ice. High end maybe 3-5 with 1-2 tenths of ice. Low end being 1-2'' of snow and sleet accumulation followed by a prolonged freezing drizzle ordeal. Idk what do you think?

Front end thump is definitely noticeable and more in line with most guidance. Its finally getting a clue lol.

Has a tendency to overdo cold and moisture would be careful at face value until we get just a little closer. It and the Canadian have scored wins this year though so obv don’t completely discount it just be aware of known biases.

For me the GFS and FV3 are basically a carbon copy of their 6z counterpart. For northern NC zones and southern VA you cannot get a better placed high than what these models show. 1039 anchored up in central NY. Just opening the St Lawrence Valley and Canada wide open to funnel down some very cold air.

You gotta think depending on what 12z gfs run does that the way to go right now is a blend of Canadian, GFS, RGEM and ICON. All are pretty similar in surface depiction of qpf. Then I believe you can put the NAM and EURO in another camp.