Buddy1987

Lol honestly if you got 10 and I got 4 I def wouldn't complain one bit the way this winter has gone. Let's see what Icon has to say here.

Question is though is it typical NAM bias to over amp these things?

Kinda playing catchup here but really only thing I40 north in my opinion can hope for is either some over amplification or some southeast aided flow. Dry air is going to be a contender with a 1043 parked to the west of us.

Anybody have the 18z Canadian? There is one correct?

I'm in JI camp. Give me the heavier rates and marginal cold and I'll take my chances at least out this way for some heavy meatballs.

Good pickup JI. 540 line looks to stay se of 81 corridor at minimum. Problem is GGEM has low much further east of MYR than GFS at around the same juncture. Something to keep an eye on.

Cant get a better track than that in late Jan from MYR to east of RIC. Depressing with temps

Lmao 4.6" here I'll believe it when hell freezes over.

We need some Jebman positivity to kick off the 0z runs. ICON will lead us off with a healthy storm.

Sounds like one of those setups where we wont know because of shortwaves flying around like crazy from the northern tier. Hard for models to time this out right until we get closer. I know you guys both know but when the timing is going to make or break because of how close it is to phasing or not we may not fully know the outcome until somewhere between 72-96 hours before it were to commence.

Were euro ensembles just as bad as the OP run for next weekend?

Bob what would we need to see from the CMC to be a bigger deal for the first wave. Does a weird jump from Arkansas down into southern Alabama in a 6 hr increment and then strengthens rapidly east of CHS.

Gut shot would say anyone north and west of I40 would have the best odds we've had in a very long time. GGEM has been furthest south and more of a swing and a miss. GFS is and has been the most amped and Euro and ICON have been best case scenarios for a couple runs for the northern folks of the forum.

Makes sense then. Be honest man with the way the winter has been it's great to see for the time being and I'd rather be in the euro camp with this years trends etc bc the GFS has been the euro's biatch. Knocking on wood as we speak so I dont jinx the 0z Euro run. Hopefully GEFS improved because there were some decent hits at 18z.

Not even saying this because I'm wish casting but GFS has been atrocious with next weekend's storm. It has a different solution it seems almost every Zulu run. Now has cutter up into southern Ohio. Wont buy it until Euro and other models show something similar. Euro Canadian and Icon all in a similar camp compared to GFS.