Buddy1987

The satellite is showing all 4 quadrants beginning to look healthy once again I’m curious to see what this thing looks like when most of us wake up tomorrow morning. whatever shear was impeding the western and southern portion of the storm has completely stopped now

Fellas, if it’s me this thing is starting to look very healthy again on the last loop. Deep convection wrapping around and the eye looks much better overall. Nighttime is the opportune time for this thing to get going.

If it were me I def wouldn’t chance trying to get out of CLT. Southwest is looking to cancel flights ahead of the storm and CHS in Charleston is shut down after midnight tonight. I do believe however that ATL flight operations will be good to go still. My point is as the forecast becomes more evident to verification, airports in Raleigh, Charlotte etc will begin to cease operations. My buddy works for the FAA so he deals with this stuff all the time.

Makes sense. Follow the path of least resistance. I could def see that being a plausible scenario. Would be catastrophic for the entire SC coast. CHS airport closes at midnight tonight.

Some of those cumulonimbi have got to be out of this world, height wise. The convection in the southern and southeastern portion of the cyclone is impressive to say the least.

To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge?

You beat me to it brother. All have taken a big step toward the Euro tonight, minus the wonky OP GFS.

Guess my eyes weren’t completely deceiving me at 11am update hahaha

Is it me or does this thing look like it’s heading due west when looking at satellite?

This is almost surreal. Like it’s fake or something. To have that much rainfall forecasted is just beyond me. Time to start stocking up on some household necessities.

THIS! Very informational

Thank you for the well explained response. I guess we will wait to see if this really drops the pressures and subsequent rise of winds or if this is just a journey in the process whereas this eye gets choked out by a larger eye at some point.

I was going to piggy back off the comment about the pinhole. If it does maintain characteristics of an extremely small eye as it strengthens, is it correct to say that it would allow the winds to crank up in her a lot faster or not necessarily, seeing as how the cylinder of the eye would be smaller and thus thunderstorm activity would be restricted directly around the center to a smaller area? Just curious about small pinhole eyes and large 30+ mile wide eyes.

I know you have been tracking these things for a very long time. What is your gut for rotting on the NC coast vs traveling up the coast some or headed west toward the blue ridge. I’m honestly very worried about epic flooding up my way.

Yea 114 has her over ILM and literally close to stalled there from 114-126. Same timeframe at 12z had her east off of Hatteras. Big shift imo.