largetornado

An impressive run for sigtor ingredients

While tomorrow is looking very volatile, the nocturnal threat tonight is not something to sleep on.

0z HRRR keeps the biggest threats south of the Ohio river. 0z nam brings the threat basically to Michigan. Either way, the hires models are trending towards a significant severe threat on Tuesday. Sounding is north central ohio NWS ILN current thinking:

18z suite continues trend of 12z. Large area of substantial STP.

Multi day severe threat expected for southern portion of subforum 4/1-4/2. As of now, the SPC a 5% risk of tornadoes along I64 for Monday and a 30% general risk for Tuesday. Most concerning to me is the nocturnal threat monday into Tuesday. Biggest question that remains is how veered winds are.

yep, didnt hold in the 0Z suite. However, the warm front on Monday has that look to me and the D2 outlook hits on that.

NAM not as veered. Sounding from southern Ohio on tuesday

https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1773359186484601075?s=46

Based on the GFS over the past 4-5 days, looks like our next chance of severe is going to be 3/28-4/3.

ILN was on it. Give them props. There will be time for airmass recovery in western Ohio/eastern Indiana later this afternoon and evening, with model consensus of lower 60s dewpoints advecting in along and south. A pretty concerning supercell environment is depicted with a mid level jet streak providing ample deep layer shear, low level curvature in the hodographs, and deep instability. Supercell mode is possible if not likely, thus threats in terms of impact seem to maximize in the 5P-11P timeframe in southeast Indiana, western Ohio possibly as far east as central Ohio with large hail and a a tornado or two.

Minimum ef4 damage right? Swept off slab?

by my latest count, 4 killed in Winchester and at least 6 killed in Ohio.

Look at the STP Map from the 18z HRRR. And the mesoscale analysis had STP of 3+ for a lot of Ohio throughout the day that could have been caught by the 4pm update. Additionally effective SRH(IMO the signal biggest predictor of strong/violent tornadoes) was 300+ on the Mesoanalysis. I’m just saying to not raise to an enhanced, was a mistake based on the signals I saw. My guess is the SPC was thinking veering would tamper any threats which veering was specifically mentioned in the 4pm update

Agreed. There was a clear signal a 10% was justified by noon.

At least 3 killed in winchester per Jenny dressier on twittter . Mobile homes hit

Ok then

SE Indiana tornado warning. Confirmed

Unusually bullish from ILN.

60/40 tor probs issued for Ohio valley.

Strong strong tornado right there. Damn

Was the random kokomo wedge in 2015?

Silly hobby

Look at all the gravity waves

For whatever reason, the warm front, as it lifts over central Indiana has me really intrigued . (also I think I found the tightest hodo for a PDS TOR Sounding)

These storms around 12z…any chance they lay a boundary that interacts with the warm front as it lifts north and fire storms?