largetornado

Where is McCarthy when you need him?

The blatant disregard for life and property in this thread is appalling.

Is it possibly the start of an eyewall replacement cycle?

160k without power in Cincinnati.

I ended up on 64 in shelby county kentucky. Pretty sure i was in a circulation but could not punch in front of the line as the winds were incredibly intense and visibility was all of 5 feet. I finally called it quits after being in it for a solid 30 minutes. Most intense driving ive experienced. One hell of a storm. And FWIW a mesonet station in Shelby county recorded a 75 mph gust

The bottom sill plate is missing and broken in places. I also saw another post where an anchor bolt was visible in a CMU foundation but survey noted “no connection.” this survey is bogus.

Tim mentioned vehicles on his Facebook. That’s a joke. The average new vehicle is heavier and more aerodynamic than in the past. This is a poor rating

I AM NOT DISCOUNTING THE DAMAGE. However, that concrete work was improperly done. They didn’t pull the rebar up and it basically sat at the bottom of the pour (if they pulled it up, no way that concrete breaks like that or there would at least be evidence of the rebar in the concrete). In other words, that rebar provided little if any strength) I’m very curious where the hell that rebar grid went as post tornado pictures just show gravel.

Reed timmer posted a video from someone showing it as a wedge on approach to the Mississippi River. He tweeted “likely 1 tornado”

8 dead, 8 missing at candle factory. Not 70 dead like early estimates per AP and candle factory spokesman

Completely leveled. Insanity

I’m kinda curious why the storms aren’t spinning more. Srh of 400+ per mesoanalysis. Not surfaced based storms?

Models continue you to trend tomorrow’s system north. Not sure if separate thread is warranted. But latest models have significant sfc-1km srh values extending to i70 and Indiana is covered in UH tracks

FWIW, it looks as if the threat to the southern half of subforum is growing for Thursday. 06z HRRR popped some significant STP values.

ILN vwp hodo

Sunday may be the first of a series of active days across the subforum. Analogs have a few solid tornado events. (6/22/91, 6/6/2010, 6/4/2008) Sounding is from around indy at 21z. Not overly impressed with wind profile. Pretty veered at surface and highish LCL's.

I’m headed back east from my chasecation. Anyone see any reason to chase Se Kansas tomorrow?

I was out in the field today focusing on the storm I was on. I don’t know how much lead time they got, but that region is supportive of basements and most people have them. Hopefully cell phone alarms got people downstairs or to interior areas

Wow

Couple severe thunderstorm warnings in Kentucky. Surprised that SPC does not have out MD or watch.

Indiana has pretty good parameters tomorrow...Might be a late sleeper if stuff can form.

PDS Watch for Oklahoma issued. Wind/Hail/Tor probabilities all maxed out at >95%

Large part of the subforum under a marginal risk today. ...Ohio Valley/central Appalachians... Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, offering sporadic wind damage, with isolated severe (50+ kt) gusts and marginally severe hail possible. A narrow corridor of favorable return-flow moisture should advect northeastward through the warm sector just ahead of the front, with surface dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s F. This will offset modest midlevel lapse rates to yield a field of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE for a few hours this afternoon, with surface-based effective-inflow parcels at least briefly possible as far northeast as western NY. Low-level and deep-tropospheric speed shear should be favorable, though the prefrontal flow will be nearly unidirectional in vertical profile.

Mesoscale Discussion 0304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019 Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112013Z - 112115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...At least some increase in severe weather potential is expected with developing thunderstorm activity across parts of northern Illinois by the 4-6 PM CDT time frame. It is possible that this threat may remain low enough that a watch is not needed, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Near/just ahead of the lower/mid tropospheric cold front, forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to the ongoing increase in thunderstorm activity across northwestern Illinois into southwestern Wisconsin. This activity is largely rooted above a near-surface stable layer to the north of the surface warm front, with relatively warm mid-levels and weak mid/high level lapse rates allowing for only weak CAPE. The band of convection is expected to gradually spread eastward during the few hours, with southward development into the warm sector of the surface cyclone also possible by 21-23Z. Even within the warm sector, relatively low surface dew points across parts of eastern Missouri into west central Illinois are currently resulting in negligible boundary layer CAPE. However, modest low-level moisture (reflected by mid 50s+ surface dew points) appears to be returning northward/northwestward in a corridor to the east/northeast through north of Springfield, into the vicinity of the warm front. A combination of at least weak boundary-layer destabilization along the warm front, coupled with increasing lift ahead of the occluding surface cyclone triple point (and associated eastward advancing band of mid-level forcing for ascent), may allow for at least isolated boundary-layer based storm development. This seems most likely north/northeast of the Peoria vicinity, and may include one or two supercells accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and localized strong surface gusts. Although low-level thermodynamic profiles appear rather marginal, given the synoptic environment, and large low-level hodographs near/beneath 50+ kt southerly 850 mb flow, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/11/2019

FWIW, the HRRR is currently underdoing dew points in kansas by 3-4 degrees. Id probably add 2-3 degrees to the HRRR dewpoints for tomorrow.