largetornado

There is a dry slot right out in front of these storms. Wonder how much that plays into it. Nothing to the east or south of existing storms has been able to sustain

Interestingly, the SPC had a SCTD risk for d1 convective outlook which translates to moderate todays

Found this on Twitter. WRF simulation of 4/3/74. thought it would be interesting to post this and see how a thread would go based on this model output. https://www.goldenhorseshoewx.ca/case_studies/SuperOutbreak1974/ another model https://x.com/jacob_feuer/status/1775667383816143284?s=46

Dew points rebounding in ky nicely. Winds are pretty veered though.

Anyone know if the radars being down affect model inputs? (From my understanding, NWS offices can still see their radars but the feed is down.)

SPC sticking with the moderate with a massive hatched tornado risk Spc basically said ignore the nam .

03z HRRR takes the pressure down to 987. Time for bed and we shall see tomorrow.

At this point, will the EML in Arkansas/Southern MO/TN be eroded by that ongoing convection or will it inhibit it?

Yes from a messaging standpoint, this could be a mess. The miss earlier this month may or may not have played a part with the 15%. I would assume the afternoon outlook was late because there was a significant amount of discussion around the 15%. Realistically I think it’s a good forecast if the area circled in red does not materialize. If it does, the threat for Ohio would likely be significantly degraded. 0z sounding from ILN shows a minor inversion. Might prohibit some early morning convection?

Some disagreement between rap, hrrr, nam, and nam3k. It’s a wake up and see kind oF a day which is typical for the OV.

18z HRRR isnt backing down. Brings the threat more towards indy and reflectivity is showing a more discrete environment, with cells starting to grow upscale after crossing into ohio.

11/17/13 is only event i recall but the tor risk only extended into western ohio. 3/2/12 was mainly kentucky and SW ohio. For the entirety of ohio, nothing comes to mind.

An impressive run for sigtor ingredients

While tomorrow is looking very volatile, the nocturnal threat tonight is not something to sleep on.

0z HRRR keeps the biggest threats south of the Ohio river. 0z nam brings the threat basically to Michigan. Either way, the hires models are trending towards a significant severe threat on Tuesday. Sounding is north central ohio NWS ILN current thinking:

18z suite continues trend of 12z. Large area of substantial STP.

Multi day severe threat expected for southern portion of subforum 4/1-4/2. As of now, the SPC a 5% risk of tornadoes along I64 for Monday and a 30% general risk for Tuesday. Most concerning to me is the nocturnal threat monday into Tuesday. Biggest question that remains is how veered winds are.

yep, didnt hold in the 0Z suite. However, the warm front on Monday has that look to me and the D2 outlook hits on that.

NAM not as veered. Sounding from southern Ohio on tuesday

https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1773359186484601075?s=46

Based on the GFS over the past 4-5 days, looks like our next chance of severe is going to be 3/28-4/3.

ILN was on it. Give them props. There will be time for airmass recovery in western Ohio/eastern Indiana later this afternoon and evening, with model consensus of lower 60s dewpoints advecting in along and south. A pretty concerning supercell environment is depicted with a mid level jet streak providing ample deep layer shear, low level curvature in the hodographs, and deep instability. Supercell mode is possible if not likely, thus threats in terms of impact seem to maximize in the 5P-11P timeframe in southeast Indiana, western Ohio possibly as far east as central Ohio with large hail and a a tornado or two.

Minimum ef4 damage right? Swept off slab?

by my latest count, 4 killed in Winchester and at least 6 killed in Ohio.