largetornado
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Everything posted by largetornado
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Bingo. What makes sense to us can and often times confuses the general public. IE, watch vs warnings.
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After looking at 18z, HRRR would have me chasing wednesday. If i went off the nam suite, i would not chase at all but its apparently been having problems this year. At this point, any storms that can become surface based will have a top tier environment to work with. I wish the SPC had a outlook that conveyed spatial coverage as well as potential intensity. Tomorrow would be a slight risk for storm coverage and a moderate risk for intensity IMO.
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FWIW, the HREF has a pretty bullish convective signal for Iowa/mo/ill area. Secondary, hinting at some early activity in Indiana south of i70
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Yep. Warm front or very close to the triple point. Unless some subtle forcing mechanism occurs in the warm sector, it looks like it will be capped.
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NAM has some ridiculous 850 temps. In my untrained eye, NAM favors cap bust. Nam 3km points to a cap bust/nocturnal threat, as someone pointed out HRRR is trending towards mixing issues.
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HRRR isn’t shy
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MUCAPE of 4500 per nam 3k at 18z tuesday. Lmao
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0z nam rolling in. Looks like a shift west
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Looking through some soundings. Looks to be a fairly stout inversion right above 850. Failure mode?
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Had some more time to look at the models. The warm sector is enormous with favorable parameters throughout. If the nam has its way, the warm sector is going to be relatively free of contaminating crapvection. (GFS and euro agree with the minimal rainfall in the warm sector as well) Good forcing throughout the warm sector…it certainly seems this could be a very high end event over a widespread area.
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First sounding I picked from the NAM.
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Tornado just dropped NE of Fort Wayne. Good debris ball
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Where is McCarthy when you need him?
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The blatant disregard for life and property in this thread is appalling.
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Is it possibly the start of an eyewall replacement cycle?
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160k without power in Cincinnati.
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I ended up on 64 in shelby county kentucky. Pretty sure i was in a circulation but could not punch in front of the line as the winds were incredibly intense and visibility was all of 5 feet. I finally called it quits after being in it for a solid 30 minutes. Most intense driving ive experienced. One hell of a storm. And FWIW a mesonet station in Shelby county recorded a 75 mph gust
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The bottom sill plate is missing and broken in places. I also saw another post where an anchor bolt was visible in a CMU foundation but survey noted “no connection.” this survey is bogus.
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Tim mentioned vehicles on his Facebook. That’s a joke. The average new vehicle is heavier and more aerodynamic than in the past. This is a poor rating
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I AM NOT DISCOUNTING THE DAMAGE. However, that concrete work was improperly done. They didn’t pull the rebar up and it basically sat at the bottom of the pour (if they pulled it up, no way that concrete breaks like that or there would at least be evidence of the rebar in the concrete). In other words, that rebar provided little if any strength) I’m very curious where the hell that rebar grid went as post tornado pictures just show gravel.
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Reed timmer posted a video from someone showing it as a wedge on approach to the Mississippi River. He tweeted “likely 1 tornado”
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8 dead, 8 missing at candle factory. Not 70 dead like early estimates per AP and candle factory spokesman
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Completely leveled. Insanity
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I’m kinda curious why the storms aren’t spinning more. Srh of 400+ per mesoanalysis. Not surfaced based storms?
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Models continue you to trend tomorrow’s system north. Not sure if separate thread is warranted. But latest models have significant sfc-1km srh values extending to i70 and Indiana is covered in UH tracks
