Radtechwxman

125mph 950mb as of latest update

Maybe a little of both. But IR appearance is improving and lightning has upticked.

Eyewall definitely has improved on radar. Less open and looks like the concentric eyewalls have combined or close to.

Looks like Milton is bare minimum cat 4 now on latest update. 130 mph 944mb. I'm thinking it may landfall as low end 3 unless it restrengthens later but probably unlikely given satellite/radar presentation.

Lightning is still very prolific in the eyewall. Typically don't see that with weakening storms. I haven't seen this much eyewall lightning since Dorian.

Definitely perplexed why we don't have higher winds right now. That's insane

I knew EWRC would take its toll but didn't expect it back down to cat 4 already albeit just barely. Satellite appearance has definitely degraded compared to earlier. Curious to see if there's any recovery tomorrow after it completes EWRC.

That motion on radar really looks like part of eyewall could come on shore in Yucatan. Curious to see what effect this has on Milton.

Incredible amount of eyewall lightning

Wonder if interaction with Yucatan will disrupt COC and cause dry air entrainment since it's a smaller storm. However it's a very well put together storm compared to Helene at the point it would interact with Yucatan.

Hence why I'm confused why recon was finding steady pressures before they left

I'm really surprised at that given how the IR satellite appearance continues to improve and eye about to pop

Surprised nhc is being more conservative with top strength Milton reaches in Gulf esp given how it looks tonight. I think 150-155 is a good bet and likely higher if good organization remains next day or so while Milton remains in favorable low shear and high OHC.

Impressive microwave pass

Yeah I have a habit of doing that. Ha. But thanks for the input