powderfreak

This is a good example of why the Ensembles are the way to go. The OP runs have everyone swinging from the rafters or swinging for the fences. If you look at like the last dozen EPS and GEFS runs, there really hasn't been a huge shift. Maybe 50 miles north in like 3 days on the snow maps? Tuck it back south 25 miles and it's literally not far from what it looked like at Day 8-9. They have expanded northward into Canada more than that but the southern end of the big snow maps has gone from like N/C CT to RT 2, and now it's slinking south a bit again.

It's likely for him. The GEFS and EPS have had double digits for him all along I think? Razor thin at 12z but the mean snowfall maps have had a dip down into his area the whole time of 8-10"+. Go with the Ensembles.

The BTV warm departures are real. That's what the Champlain Valley looks like in January now .

There were good ones at 6z and 12z too. Big sensible weather difference between the ones that go up the CT Valley and ones that go over Cape Cod...but at this lead time that's not a ton of spread. It just happens to have a huge impact on many posters here. Just glancing, the deeper lows are the ones west...the weaker pressures are east.

18z EPS lows...

Unfortunately the mid-levels aren't good for upslope. Need that to stack vertically with closed mid-levels to really wrap moisture back westward into the mountains.

Yeah not bad at all. 12z EPS mean had Montreal getting more snow than N.NH (not New Haven), it was real jacked up. Good to see a slink south, the GFS getting sleet into the northeast kingdom of VT could shift back south a bit too, lol.

Crazy it's been like 8 straight runs of big totals. Edit: Wait I thought it only went out to 90? I'm looking at 12z lol.

We all know how this plays out. Everyone keeps saying it won't track inland, go with meteorology. That cold won't be denied. It'll track along the south coast at the least.

Still crying for mamas stuff, regardless of how often it happens. It's going to be cold.

Looks like decent snow growth, maybe 2-3" off 0.1-0.2" QPF?

18z GEFS snow map is almost identical to what the 12z EPS was.

Yeah people take advantage of each other. Sickening to hit someone when they are already down.

I have to double check but I'm 65-70" at home, which is about what I had all of 2011-12 and much more than 2015-16. My highest winter here was 160" in 2010-11. J.Spin's classic spot is the one over 100".

November was really the month here, like you. The only real difference up here has been a few more nickles and the big difference was that recent synoptic to upslope storm. You are one coastal plain only snowstorm away from being pretty equal.