powderfreak

January 2015 the Euro had 1-1.5” QPF way up through BTV like 24 hours or less from go-time. Reality was like 0.25”. It has had its bad blown big storms. I think it’s reputation has also fueled this idea that it’s worse. People “remember” this reputation of the GFS being horrible and Euro being God… when that wasn’t quite the case. But in their heads, that’s how it was 5-15 years ago.

100% selective memory and recency bias. People remember a few distinct events and not the 360 other days out of a year too. All it takes these days is one or two big snowstorms to completely change opinions of models. Although it’s like a pitcher in baseball who puts up quality outing after quality outing, then gets lit up when the most eyes are on them. No one remembers the 10 previous wins, only the bad blown loss.

We’ve been bouncing 37-39F with some of the densest fog I can remember. ASOS has been M1/4 off and on.

Yeah I don’t remember these lead times being normal like people say. It was really 4-5 days and inside.

So it happens. His problem is he’s trying to “compete” with the coastal and SE Mass areas in off-shore track blizzards, while also compete with the high terrain to his west in inland snowstorms. It has to be just right to fit into the envelop and “win” over one of those two types of storms that likely favor west or SE. Sounds like it’s always in between those two to get to average.

Lower variability tends to go that way. Highs won’t be as high but lows won’t be as low. Feel like SE MA has the highest variability of all of New England.

Hey as someone who writes stuff daily for public eyes, I make my share of typo mistakes. I always appreciate when people point it out instead of just being like meh whatever.

72-23 for Bridgeport meant to be 1972-1973 right?

Meet bookend season DIT. It’s a confusing time of year.

Yeah that’s true. Poorly worded on my part… meant to say that same tweet from a personal account is nothing. From the NWS it’s a problem.

Sucks for so many reasons. The family of the person and the entire resort staff really feel that stuff. It puts it all in perspective whenever you hear of a possible fatal occurring on the radio in real time. Everyone remembers we do this thing called skiing just for fun and yes you never truly know but life altering things happen from one wrong turn.

Yeah, it's climo. First day of spring here. Grabbed this shot just after 7pm (sunset now after 7!) on our way to get groceries at Shaws. Would be very fun if the Mansfield Stake tops 100" of depth after worries in beginning of February that winter may have peaked or been done. Not going to lie, it was looking bleak there. Been a fun stretch to be honest. If it continues for another few weeks somehow, this would be a great comeback winter. One more large QPF rich snow event would do it. Not a gloat; we know not many actually care on the forum. Don't blame anyone either, all we can do is just give observations of our own local areas. Might be some potential coming up. Maybe not, but it seems CNE/NNE is in the game. Maybe it lucks out underneath and SNE gets some wound up blue bomb instead. It is cut-off season.

Ha yeah people already from other mountains keep asking if we close the 3rd Sunday in April so they can come skin the playground. As usual, probably close with deepest Mansfield stake depths of season.

It would be more elevation dependent but honestly, whenever the models have signaled these super wet and cold long range patterns in NNE, someone has gotten smoked this season. Is it 40”? No. But it’s like day 3 now of these long range models showing snow event potential going forward as moisture increases into marginally cold air. Its not a tulip pattern, that’s for sure.