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powderfreak

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    Stowe, VT
  1. Holy sheet. Just crushing this morning. The lake effect upslope combo has Mansfield in the firehose. Full on white out at times on the drive in with several inches on the road. 3.8" in the base area at 5:30am... that's ~4 in about 2 hours.
  2. I agree with ORH...you'll be fine for snow cover. Grab an inch or two on the front side and maybe no real loss at all?
  3. That's pretty cool. I've never heard of that but its true, I think the one area of improvement for Northeast NWS offices would be increased sensitivity to terrain effects with regards to precipitation totals. I'm not sure how you do that, and while it has come a long way in the past 5-10 years, there is still work to do with regards to precipitation forecasts and orographics. I bet they do under-estimate snowfall at times on E/SE flow when the conditions are favorable for a good low-level assist. Same how up here we can under-estimate the orographics...but you can't just always assume the higher amounts. That's why a good model or better understanding of the "why" comes into play. We all know the possibilities with upsloping precipitation, from "go big" to "go home," but its awesome to see more effort put into studying/analyzing that aspect of forecasting.
  4. Keep the core of the cold in the Great Lakes and it's game on this winter. Keeps a general cold W/SW flow advecting lake moisture into portions of New England during the boring times to keep the snow threat going. Also stops us from having the dreaded suppression when the cold core is over us.
  5. Then he ends up making a playoff run that likely ends in the first round but it's acceptable to the team's fans. He gave it a good effort and connected on some decent snowfall, err long passes, and shoveled off the haters.
  6. I feel like these always tick colder with a faster secondary development in the final 24 hours. How many times have we seen that with CAD down to like the ORH Hills and northeast?
  7. I'm not as well versed in your local climate and exact locations but I've been thinking the Lakes Region looks like a prime spot to get a quick dump of 6"+. I would assume your area is golden too? This seems like a good congrats Dendrite type event.
  8. Man that is a sweet set-up on the 18z GFS... forget the QPF... give me a vertically stacked cyclonic flow with a low parked just north of FVE and let the mountains do their thing. Our climo favored position is for stacked cyclones just north or northeast of FVE. Good cold air advection with excellent snow growth temps near ridgetop elevations on NW flow with saturated atmosphere through 700mb... if this isn't a pants tent, I mean what is? lol.
  9. 18z GFS actually isn't that far off for those areas just north of ALB from the foothills of the Adirondacks across into SVT... the GFS has bullseyes of 10-11" in those areas with 5-6" Pittsfield/North Adams. The ALY map just makes it look too widespread...I think there's more local variability there than the ALB map alludes to.
  10. 18z GFS looks warmer than 12z. 850mb temps go above freezing up past ORH and into NH/ME coastal plain.
  11. Yeah that does seem a bit aggressive. This doesn't have a widespread 8-12" feel. More of a widespread 4-8" type vibe.
  12. Was surprised to see a Winter Storm Watch up here... I'm thinking the main synoptic snow is Advisory level. Backside upslope though looks solid with those temps, that's high ratio backside fluff but there's like a 12-hour dry slot between the synoptic forcing and terrain initiated stuff.
  13. Not going to lie, but good luck on getting lodging for that week right now. Stuff that's still available in Stowe will certainly cost a premium with low supply and high demand. Waterbury actually might be a decent option though. A little removed from the ski town lodging scene and right between Stowe and Sugarbush. I'd the Whites are the same with regards to busy during that week.
  14. Real nice upslope signal after that too... in the 12z Wed to 12z Thur time frame.
  15. Snowing with an inch so far today. I like where radar is going...I think the mountain might get lit up with a few inches by 12z tomorrow. Good flow off Ontario. Tons of terrain openings going on... up to 48 trails, the most in Vermont. Nickels and dimes add up over time.