powderfreak

This is where the forum struggles as a whole, we just went through it in November. Pattern change means the pattern changes from one thing to another. But it doesn’t mean snow. November went from all-time record warmth and heights to two weeks of below normal. Big change but some struggled with it because a snow event didn’t happen. Its obvious we are entering another pattern with stormy, deeper lows, big moisture chances and lows somewhere along the east coast instead of a parade of lows through the Lakes.

Cool depiction of an OE band on the 6z GFS on the E/NE flow.

Signing in for duty on that GFS run.

That’s awesome. Steamboat was the first place I went out west too. Just the western vibe, ski town, aspen trees mixed with big tall evergreens plastered with snow. It felt so different than the east. The wide expanse of everything out there, so much different than our tighter rolling hills in the east. Great story about your trip, that’s amazing to go out west with friends in HS, ha.

If you’re talking about Wildcat, they also had some serious power transmission issues. Unreliable service and remote line work two winters ago. Then last year was the short staffed (COVID vaccine mandate did not attract staff up there in the Berlin/Gorham area). There’s always a reason for a deviation for historical output, and sometimes those issues are amplified by nature not cooperating. Like if you blow out one of your four snowmaking compressors, water intake is down, or have some system handicap arise without an immediate fix… if there’s good natural snowfall and cold, the issue can be hidden and it goes unnoticed. But when the weather is crap, those things get amplified in a hurry and people start wondering what’s up.

Something seems up at Sugarbush. It doesn’t make sense to be honest given where they are historically compared to regional competitors. One run each, off the two open lifts that might be 1,000 verts? And I’ve seen posts saying the two routes that are open are thin. The weather hasn’t been ideal but it seems a very slow expansion. Not riding Bravo yet seems off. Yesterday in the rain, the Gate House Quad route. Everyone is trying their hardest, and I hope whatever they are up against gets better. Stuff happens behind the scenes that can amplify a poor weather streak.

Looping the 850mb temps, that’s a classic strong block look lol. Today is the coldest day of that 16-day run lol. Shades of a block. Maine just warm throughout… warmer than DC.

“You guys that wanted Stein and nice sunny weather all summer asked for this”…

Yeah the ski areas on weekends and holidays have been busy gong shows since I was a kid. I mean my family would go to Okemo and I remember not being able to find places to sit and put your boots on it’s so busy. Early 1990s style skiing, ha. Killington crazy town, even Gore on holidays or weekends felt bustling busy, people parking down the access road and riding their shuttle. The thing is I don’t remember the complaining about it that we do now. Maybe I was a kid and didn’t care and my parents were swearing behind our backs? Social media has also become a vehicle for complaints of all type of societal stuff. But not finding a seat in a lodge to get booted up, or parking in a snowbank and waiting in a healthy liftline, that’s my memory of skiing growing up and I loved it, ha. Now that’s a social outrage. I have fond memories of those things, getting bussed from a far corner of the lot at Bromley… my mom making two trips (god bless her) on the shuttle to bring all the gear while I stay with my younger sisters. Now people seem to say if they have kids they need to park right next to a lodge and if they can’t it’s not worth it. The stuff my mom used to do for us blows my mind now. Then we’d be so stoked to go ski crushed ice cubes and circa 1991 snowmaking/grooming after a rain event.

Yeah I may be off there and biased due to high number of skinning around these parts up here. Even still I think there’s an exodus off riding chairlifts of the core segment. Out west especially.

It’s true too. November 2018 set the record for snow depth and snowfall in the NNE mtns. It was the only November to hit 40” at the Mansfield stake. All glades skiable and open before Dec 1st. The range of options is high this time of year. Expectations can run from bare ground to full-on winter party.

The winter season officially starts December 21st for a reason. Summer starts June 21st. Climo lags behind solar. We can hate it, but there is a reason why that is a thing.

It is a psych analysis type of evaluation... but even recognizing that, I think it is a rush on the seasonal expectations that leads to disappointment. It could be below normal temperatures at times for sure, behind the rain events. I personally didn't see many graphics posted that showed below normal 2-meter temperatures over a prolonged time. I saw 5-day means or whatever of 500mb heights showing partial below normal levels? That's like 20,000 feet up in the sky. We don't live at H5. The pattern starts at H5 but it's not the end all deterministic outcome. It's hedging bets towards a pattern. An NAO block means a deeper low may form, deepen, and slow along the East Coast. That's it. We'll see if we get any here at the end of autumn, rain or snow.

Yup, I’m in that camp too. Recognizing it is the key to expectations. 2015 is a great example. Folks suffered through the darkest, murkiest time of the year with very little to no snow. Fall 2014 to early 2015… frustrating. Then the sun starts to rise in the sky, people lose their cool because now it’s time for things to head towards the warm season… melts in early January are just that, people who sense the sun going in the other direction and thinking they are on borrowed time. It snows 100” for some spots in the next 3-4 weeks of increasing sun angle and it’s historic on many levels. It’s the coldest time of year despite lengthening daylight and solar angle. The mind plays tricks on our expectations due to the solar pattern. It’s an interesting psychology (Tippy would enjoy it, along with others).

People love to rush the seasons. I think it’s largely caused by the lag between solar vs. climo. When the sun angle increases and daylight lengthens from March to June, they want warmth trending to hot. Reality is there’s a lag and heat/humidity is more commonly July-September. In the autumn, decreasing sun angle and darkness leads to a deep desire for winter in November and December. However, the lag behind the solar schedule says that winter/snow is largely a Jan-Mar exercise. Most people’s frustrations come from the sensible weather not lining up with the solar schedule… causing a rush on seasonal expectations. It should be deep winter right now in people’s minds (because it’s dark at 4-5pm) but climo says it should be above freezing in the means. Doesn’t add up, causes mental conflicts.