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powderfreak

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    Stowe, VT
  1. Yeah that's a huge drop pretty much everywhere except NE Mass from 00z and 06z. The RGEM was widespread like 30+mm prior to that. Maybe we are narrowing in on a smaller region of big snows....with more widespread 3-8".
  2. RGEM really cut back on total snow QPF from the 6z run...also on QPF in general.
  3. NAM gets sleet up here, lol.
  4. The zone in the box (this is the EURO) has been hammered on pretty much all models for days now. I'm not sure what the reservation is in that area. RT 2 up to RUT-LCI might as well go 12-18" and hoist the warnings.
  5. I'm surprised at how conservative the NWS is going as well... I'd think ALY and GYX would've gone slam dunk Warnings already for their SNH/SVT zones. It seems some storms you look at the forecasts and its widespread 12-18" and you are scratching your head and then there are ones like this where models are throwing some huge moisture out there and places are worried about going more than 7-12". I was surprised there wasn't more impact hit by the NWS in what has always looked like a high impact zone of RT 2 up into central VT/NH. I'm also surprised ALY has nothing in the Catskills...even if its not going to be snow that looks like 1"+ of QPF as sleet and freezing rain. Especially for those 2,000ft towns.
  6. It tickled a little further south with the southern extent of the snow but stayed put on the northern side... but its still mostly the same as its been for about 5 runs now.
  7. Do you sleep? lol. I guess we've got all summer for that.
  8. 6z RGEM snowfall Right into Boston with 1.2-1.4" QPF as snow if I did the math right.
  9. I agree with ORH and 40/70...no true concerns for NE Mass except if the lift doesn't develope as modeled. These late season events can often bring the moisture. PWATS have to be up there.
  10. Where you going to be for this? I would think Winter Hill gets the nod?
  11. The Euro Ensembles have been pretty darn steady, except has ticked slightly colder along the mix line each run (like 10-15 miles at a time). But overall its like 4 straight runs of the EPS with a similar outcome of a significant wet/dense snowfall for CNE.
  12. Power outtages with that QPF and a 32-33F snow.
  13. Some pretty big differences developing as we get closer. Be interesting to see if the GFS scores the coup or if it gets its arse handed to it by the EURO/GGEM/mesos like in the big mid-March blizzard.
  14. I think you're golden...especially once the coastal low takes over and nighttime rolls around. Friday afternoon might be interesting... the low levels below 1,000ft are pretty warm so I wonder if some start off as rain or rain/snow mix. Or even wet-bulb processes bring snow down to start, then it goes to rain, before heavy snow takes over in the evening. Hard to say if the models are under-estimating the low level warmth on Friday afternoon...it is the time of year for temps to get 35-45F but -3C at 925mb should keep it under 40F with clouds and virga moving in.
  15. Some pretty big differences developing as we get closer. Be interesting to see if the GFS scores the coup or if it gets its arse handed to it by the EURO/GGEM/mesos like in the big mid-March blizzard.