powderfreak

lol. Once winter comes it'll be calls of 1-3" every time a model prints 0.01" QPF and he'll be telling you to stop being so cautionary haha.

Ice on my windshield while BTV has a summer morning.

I'll have to find it but I remember seeing a TV forecast for Vermont out of a BTV news station that just had "2-4 feet" written covering the entire state.

Still getting used to how fast the temperature plummets this time of year when the sun goes down. Its almost like a FROPA comes through at sunset each night, lol. Drop 16 degrees in 2 hours back into the 40s from the 60s. Windows open to everything slamming shut. BML is still the winner in that regard... they just freefall at sunset. Tonight they went from 64F to 44F in two hours.

Yeah I agree fully with that breakdown.

That whole winter was a wet dream or white dream for the interior. Even in ALB it was one of my first few winters really watching the models and I distinctly remember that 12/31 event become a much bigger event as it came closer (we had like 12-14" I think) and then remember the models jacking up the Feb 01 event as we got closer with further NW tracks. Then all events in March seemed to trend snowier, too, at least in the local high country. I do sort of miss the days of crazy model swings...oh wait...

BTV has a whole Mountain Rec page where you can get peak specific forecasts for most main mountains in VT and Adirondacks. http://www.weather.gov/btv/recreation

Yeah in this area it's pretty funny how varied and nuanced the weather can be. I'll just click around until I get the average elevation around 800ft even if the grid box isn't over my house.

Maybe a bit of understatement on the trough expectations or possible differences of opinion. I'm thinking the "seasonably chilly" nomenclature is for below-normal temperatures for a brief period, but within normal seasonal variations. Maybe it ends up more in the "unseasonably chilly" which I would say is more like -5 to -10 type deal on the daily departures.

The scene early this afternoon at 4kft....the rime on the trees made it through the entire day despite temps rising into the mid-30s. But that's the beauty of the east side where Stowe's operation resides...great preservation because the only real direct sunlight is seen in the morning hours, which is the coldest part of the day. The shadows grow even 1pm on the high east side. In late November and December, the sun can actually "set" on the east side ski trails at like 11am-12pm, with shadows for the rest of the day. The west slope gets basked in afternoon sunlight during the warmest part of the day.

Pretty solid agreement in the day 8-10 mean between the EURO/GFS/GGEM...that's a nice looking trough for some seasonable chill. The trick, as you said, is after the cold shot...is it just in and out and then re-torch or can we "mild-up" back to normal without having it going back to +10 departures.

Yeah, and the duration of that warm sector matters a lot...even a brief 55/55 heavy rain is ok but like 18 hours not so much. That manmade snow is essentially sleet in terms of retention. Depending on their snow gun settings, they are obviously going for production snow vs. skier friendly snow at that stage, so it may even make sleet look like powder haha.

Yeah mountain life is good. I love how visual weather is in the mountains too.

lol what a ridiculous answer. Not everything has to be used directly but it all feeds into the larger system.

Not with my forecast haha. Not close to worth it with the upcoming warmth. Stowe won't if there's no chance of it sticking around. The system is tested and ready to go but given the upcoming continued mild pattern there's no reason IMO.