BNAwx
-
Content count
146 -
Joined
-
Last visited
About BNAwx
- Birthday 08/26/1972
-
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Starting to get some light snow east side of Nashville. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hoping the back-end precip doesn’t fizzle out before it reaches Nashville. The last HRR I looked at (few hours old) looked decent for perhaps a dusting...maybe more if we’re lucky enough to get under a heavier band. Down to 37 now... -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I lived in Cookeville at the time and I vividly remember when the rain began mixing with then changing over to heavy wet snow. It was definitely unexpected and I believe we ended up with right at 13" if my memory serves my correctly (I'll have to dig out my old notes from back then). Ironically, my wife (girlfriend at the time) lived in Greeneville and I remember calling her and her telling me that they had over a foot of snow, the power was out and it was still coming down hard. She said her dad had picked her up from work and by the time they got home, he was basically plowing the snow with the front of his car because it had gotten so deep. I just remember being jealous that I wasn't there to see it. Little did I know about a week later the same thing would happen in Cookeville. -
January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Like most here, I think the models in general are struggling at long-leads due to the uncertainty on two pretty big factors. MJO progression and the SSW event. It' simply going to take a while longer to get a clearer picture of what is going to transpire as we get into what I consider to be the "peak" of winter which is roughly January 15th - February 15th. Simply looking at the MJO progression, perhaps it's best to pick a blend of the Euro and GFS at this point. I'm not sure. If that's the case, I do think we'll have a 3 to 4 weeks stretch of true winter with several opportunities to cash in. If the SSW pans out favorably and leads to more sustained blocking, maybe this back-loaded el nino will be one to remember. I guess patience is the moral of the story... -
Looks to be a similar scenario for most snowfall events here in middle TN. Pray there's enough cold air and that it doesn't get scoured out by WAA....
-
Other than this latest run of the GFS, it seems there's pretty good consensus (especially this far out) on the track of the low. What I'm wondering is if precip on the northern flank is being underdone on some of the modeling? I've seen it happen before and I'm just wondering if that's a legitimate possibility.
-
If anything, you’d think we could squeeze out a decent clipper in this pattern. Seems like back in the day you could count on a clipper to put down a quick, powdery inch or two with this kind of flow. They’re usually not picked up well long range so maybe we’ll get lucky.
-
Picked up about 1.5 here just east of Nashville. Still snowing pretty good for now. Nice little surprise!
-
2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Certainly would like to see some ensemble support outside of 1 or 2 members. -
Yeah, the northern part of the Plateau is a good place to be with these clipper systems. Wouldn't mind having a little getaway up there.
-
2016-2017 Great Tennessee Valley Winter Discussion
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, even in Nashville, clippers can still put you in WWA territory. I remember living in Cookeville and in the mid 90's we had one "super clipper" that put down about 5 inches! Regarding the long range, I'm anxious to see if the strat warming will lead to any cold on our side of the globe. To me SSW's are always a crap shoot. -
Got some good returns to my north and west. Bowling Green should be getting a good burst right about now.
-
I've had a few light flurries here east of Nashville but most of the precip up to this point hasn't reached the ground. Hopefully we'll be fully saturated when the next band rolls through.
-
I might need to take a road trip to the in-laws in Greeneville, TN.....
-
Need the first wave to overachieve here in Middle TN. Dusting to 1" would at least get me on the board. I think weekend system will still come back north a little more but it doesn't really look to get going until it's east of here.
