BNAwx

I’m currently 46/23 here in Nashville. Just hoping we actually get some precip up this way.

Freakin’ NAM. Pulls me in every time...

That map is a throat punch to Nashville...

Hoping the NAM isn’t just NAMing us right now...but even the globals have been inching precip more to the NW as we get closer in time.

I know that often times the northern extent of the precip field isn’t forecasted very well by models. I don’t know if that would/will apply in this situation but it would be nice. I also think there’s room for this to trend even further to the NW. We shall see..

Ground white in Hermitage. Looks like we’re going to get under one last heavier band any minute now..

Yep. Some very light snow here in Hermitage.

From an observer, Dyersburg has light snow and 33 degrees....

MEG putting out advisories now.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 727 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...Winter Weather Advisory for much of the Mid-South tonight... .Rain will quickly change to snow. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses will become slick. ARZ028-036-MSZ001>009-014-TNZ003-004-019>022-048>055-088>092- 071200- /O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0002.200207T0300Z-200207T1200Z/ Mississippi-Crittenden-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn- Tishomingo-Tunica-Tate-Prentiss-Union-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson- Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison- Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin- Including the cities of Blytheville, West Memphis, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Iuka, Tunica, Senatobia, Booneville, New Albany, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah 727 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of less than one inch on grassy surfaces. * WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi, West Tennessee and East Arkansas. * WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. eather Service Watches, Warnings & Advisories

36 here just east of Nashville. Just hoping we somehow get an "over-performer" for once...

May have to go visit the parents in Cookeville in hopes of seeing more than a wet flake or two.

I was wondering the other day how models generally perform in “la nada” years and if the lack of a strong signal from that region is the reason modeling has waffles around so much this year...more so than normal it seems. I think we would’ve had more stability in modeling and perhaps a better outcome this winter if we would’ve had a true El Niño. I haven’t looked a SST forecasts but hopefully next winter we’ll actually have a weak or moderate El Niño to work with. I’m not saying winter’s over just yet. I usually give it until March 15th then after that, I’m ready for Spring...

If it were March 23rd, you could bet the house it would verify this time..

I agree that this setup (as modeled) looks like it has overrunning potential all over it. Depending on where the boundary sets up, I like seeing a SW flow on occasion. If the boundary is far enough to the south, this area can see a good snowfall. More times than not, it seems to be a fence straddling situation and locally we’re on the “wet” instead of “white” end. Regardless, I like seeing these positive changes on most guidance. I had pretty much written January off but if we can squeeze a week to a week 1/2 of a decent pattern at the end of the month, I would consider it a win. A flip back to crappy can certainly happen so I’ll refrain from getting excited just yet...

I really like the look on the EPS...especially “and selfishly” for the mid state. There’s enough blocking to hold the cold and the cold doesn’t look too overwhelming, but enough to get it done. Also, just enough of a SER to possibly prevent too much suppression. All-in-all, it’s one of the best “looks” we’ve had this season.