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BNAwx

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Everything posted by BNAwx

  1. BNAwx
    I wonder if the model mayhem this winter has been due to the constant pressure the strat PV has been under for what seems like the entirety of the winter season. This year just seemed anomalous to me in that regard but maybe it’s not as unusual as I think it’s been. One thing about this hobby is just when you think you’ve got a decent understanding of how everything “should” work, Mother Nature throws you a Mariano Rivera cutter….
  2. BNAwx
    Not too shabby for a sneak-up event.
  3. BNAwx
    Just switched over in Hermitage. Looks like some pretty hefty returns moving in from the northwest.
  4. BNAwx
    What’s your current temp?
  5. BNAwx
    I would say the 17th - 20th period is definitely one to watch.
  6. BNAwx
    We’re obviously heading into a mid-February to mid-March 1960 kind of pattern. I wish…
  7. BNAwx
    Nashville had a nice winter storm on Valentines Day of 2021. Arctic front pushed through and changed rain to freezing rain then changed over to sleet. Probably had close to 2” of sleet before finally changing over to snow. Snow accumulated to around 3” - 4”. I’m hedging my bets that we’ll be tracking again by Valentines Day this year.
  8. BNAwx
    Marvelous March incoming!
  9. BNAwx
    Measure 7.5” in three different locations. Looks like maybe one last heavier band is about to roll through.
  10. BNAwx
    Heavier returns picking up again west of Nashville and moving this way. About to go do another measurement.
  11. BNAwx
    Not the best pic, but here’s more deck action…
  12. BNAwx
    Yes. But I’m the nut that will stare at the floodlights until my eyes cross just waiting for that first flake.
  13. BNAwx
    Returns west of Nashville have really deepened over the last little bit.
  14. BNAwx
    Right at 2 inches here in Hermitage. Gonna be a fun night!
  15. BNAwx
    Tiny flakes making it down in Hermitage just east of Nashville.
  16. BNAwx
    You know it’s been a good few hours of modeling when you have to go back 3 pages of posts to catch up where you left off the night before. Good times!
  17. BNAwx
    That’s why this is such a great hobby. I’ve experienced both “the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat” within 24 hours of an event. 24 hours worth of modeling is an eternity sometimes.
  18. BNAwx
    Lawd….
  19. BNAwx
    There’s a reason Nashville has rarely witnessed a 12”+ snowfall. Too far west to get prime snowfall from a Miller A out of the gulf and no elevation to enhance lift. There’s more reasons I’m sure. We’re more likely to get to that total from a well placed upper level low.
  20. BNAwx
    WAAAY too much time left to get attached to any solution. This is about the time models do indeed get wonky with systems or lose them altogether. Any scenario is in the table right now. The only thing I can comfortably say is it’s gonna get chilly.
  21. BNAwx
    Nice ridge popping out west…
  22. BNAwx
    Things to do: Fix the carburetor on my generator before next week….
  23. BNAwx
    Wouldn’t be surprised to see some clipper action pop up on modeling after the passage of the system on the 15th & 16th. That’s some stout cold coming down.
  24. BNAwx
    And if you like dynamic systems, these next couple of weeks will be your jam.
  25. BNAwx
    Doesn’t look like the EPS has that energy diving into the southwest. The GEPS looks like it was TRYING to do the same as the GEFS but doesn’t get there. Like Carvers said, we’re still over 7 days out and who knows exactly how this storm plays out. Fun to watch though…
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