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BNAwx

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Everything posted by BNAwx

  1. BNAwx
    This seems to be one of those rare winters where it seems to find a way to stay chilly in our neck of the woods. Hope the Euro’s MJO forecast is right. It looks like a quick low amplitude run through the warm phases then into the COD. My gut feeling (and it isn’t worth much) says we’ll have several more chances at winter weather before we make the final break into Spring.
  2. BNAwx
    This may be one of those rare winters where it just finds a way to lean cold in our neck of the woods. I’m sure the pattern breaks at some point, but finding a way to keep a trough in the east during the coldest time of the year would be awesome.
  3. BNAwx
    Based on current modeling, do you guys think overcoming dry air will be a concern, or do you believe precip will be heavy enough to saturate the entire column? Nothing more frustrating than a virga storm…
  4. BNAwx
    I’d hate for a miss to the north, but snow cover to the north and west of us might help with future systems if we can keep the favorable pattern in place.
  5. BNAwx
    I was only 5 & 6 years old in ‘77 and ‘78 so I don’t remember much else than missing alot of school. I vividly remember ‘85. Got down to -22 in Cookeville. Our pipes froze and mom went under the house with a hairdryer to try and unfreeze them. It was so cold, the extension cord froze and broke into pieces. We relied on kerosene heaters at the time so not every room was warm. Thank the Lord for electric blankets back then….
  6. BNAwx
    Yep. The Euro Ensembles look pretty impressive. Hard not to get a little excited when you see that kind of snow mean setting up.
  7. BNAwx
    Your last sentence is dead on. Given the right pattern, our source region of cold can flip dramatically in a relatively short amount of time. And over the next few weeks, even slightly warmer than normal temperature anomalies in Canada would be pretty chilly in our neck of the woods…even factoring moderation. Besides, we don’t need to be well below normal in the heart of winter for it to snow around here.
  8. BNAwx
    Need to bring this puppy back west a smidge.
  9. BNAwx
    I wonder if the model mayhem this winter has been due to the constant pressure the strat PV has been under for what seems like the entirety of the winter season. This year just seemed anomalous to me in that regard but maybe it’s not as unusual as I think it’s been. One thing about this hobby is just when you think you’ve got a decent understanding of how everything “should” work, Mother Nature throws you a Mariano Rivera cutter….
  10. BNAwx
    Not too shabby for a sneak-up event.
  11. BNAwx
    Just switched over in Hermitage. Looks like some pretty hefty returns moving in from the northwest.
  12. BNAwx
    What’s your current temp?
  13. BNAwx
    I would say the 17th - 20th period is definitely one to watch.
  14. BNAwx
    We’re obviously heading into a mid-February to mid-March 1960 kind of pattern. I wish…
  15. BNAwx
    Nashville had a nice winter storm on Valentines Day of 2021. Arctic front pushed through and changed rain to freezing rain then changed over to sleet. Probably had close to 2” of sleet before finally changing over to snow. Snow accumulated to around 3” - 4”. I’m hedging my bets that we’ll be tracking again by Valentines Day this year.
  16. BNAwx
    Marvelous March incoming!
  17. BNAwx
    Measure 7.5” in three different locations. Looks like maybe one last heavier band is about to roll through.
  18. BNAwx
    Heavier returns picking up again west of Nashville and moving this way. About to go do another measurement.
  19. BNAwx
    Not the best pic, but here’s more deck action…
  20. BNAwx
    Yes. But I’m the nut that will stare at the floodlights until my eyes cross just waiting for that first flake.
  21. BNAwx
    Returns west of Nashville have really deepened over the last little bit.
  22. BNAwx
    Right at 2 inches here in Hermitage. Gonna be a fun night!
  23. BNAwx
    Tiny flakes making it down in Hermitage just east of Nashville.
  24. BNAwx
    You know it’s been a good few hours of modeling when you have to go back 3 pages of posts to catch up where you left off the night before. Good times!
  25. BNAwx
    That’s why this is such a great hobby. I’ve experienced both “the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat” within 24 hours of an event. 24 hours worth of modeling is an eternity sometimes.
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