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Everything posted by BNAwx
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
It’s easy to get frustrated. Lord knows I am when talking about MBY. I also know it’s a product of where I live and partly luck-of-the draw. OTOH, I’m glad locations near me (and very near at that) have done ok so far this winter. At least that give me solace knowing that it CAN still snow in this neck of the woods. I’m actually thankful to have at least been in the ballgame this winter with some of the pre-season forecasts that were out there. Hopefully we’ll have a more favorable pattern statewide before winter is over. -
Jan 11-12 Mississippi Mauler: Will it or won't it?
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Dang. Looks like I need to go south or east if I’m gonna see snow this winter. Must not be livin’ right. LOL!!- 112 replies
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January 7 - 8 ULL obs and nowcast
BNAwx replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I never saw the first flake last night. Dry air was like the Great Wall of China’s at the Williamson/Davidson county line. Depressing but it’s not the first time it’s happened around here. Hoping that Monday’s system can hold together and give us a shot. -
Sad thing is, it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve driven SOUTH to see snow...
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Guess I need to jump in the car and drive south for about 30 minutes if I’m gonna see any snow tonight. LOL!
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Hoping those heavier returns can pivot up to the I-40 corridor around Nashville.
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Just getting ready to post that. Seems like several areas in West TN and western middle have changed over.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah. When we’re banana’d by a couple 1030 highs, I see your point... -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hmm. Each model run piques my interest in a possible changeover in my neck of the woods. It’ll be interesting to watch. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Dang near a perfect track. Not worried about minor details at this point. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I recall a recent post from Griteater when he was taking about the upcoming SSWE saying that it’s possible the current blocking regime holds for a while, relaxes and then comes back (paraphrasing if you will). If that happens, perhaps our best shots will be when the pattern reloads. Maybe at that point we’ll have a better cold source to tap in Canada. Wild guess at this point and I’d rather not wait for a pattern reload even if that does occur. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Christmas Eve/Christmas 2020 Arctic Express Snow Obs.
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Flurries/Light Snow here just east of Nashville. -
Christmas Eve/Christmas 2020 Arctic Express Snow Obs.
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Congrats to you folks in East TN. The pics I’ve seen are awesome. Keep ‘em coming! -
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Should drive up to the parents house in Cookeville....- 847 replies
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Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I don’t think here just east of Nashville that we’ll see any anafrontal changeover. I’m more interested in the energy coming in behind it on Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. If we get anything, I’d say that’s where it comes from. Considering how cold it will be, it won’t take much to at least whiten the ground if we can get under a decent band.- 847 replies
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Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not betting on it. Mood flakes FTW!- 847 replies
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Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Considerably better for the eastern part of Middle TN to the Plateau as well.- 847 replies
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Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
For numerous runs, the GFS ensembles have had that strange fingerlike accumulation map. Weird...- 847 replies
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My son mentioned this earlier tonight. I would have loved to see it. I have an acquaintance that has a super-duper amateur telescope and I wish we could have have finagled our way over there to view it.
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Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
BNAwx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I could live with that. Just give me some mood flakes and I’m good.- 847 replies
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’m sure reality will prove me wrong when it’s all said and done but it seems like the base state this year is to be average or cooler than normal. Projected warms ups are somewhat muted in the long range. Last year, it was the opposite. We kept expecting cold to take over but it never panned out. The MJO screwed us over last year and never looked back. I hope this is one of those rare years where the NAO and AO regions continue to cooperate. Over the past few years, a Bigfoot sighting is more likely than those two indicies lining up. Maybe we’re finally due. -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
BNAwx replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Courtesy of griteater. Euro control Jan 2nd - 29th Lawd have mercy... https://mobile.twitter.com/griteater/status/1338685577621872646
