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BNAwx

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  1. BNAwx
    Yep. Some very light snow here in Hermitage.
  2. BNAwx
    From an observer, Dyersburg has light snow and 33 degrees....
  3. BNAwx
    MEG putting out advisories now.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 727 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...Winter Weather Advisory for much of the Mid-South tonight... .Rain will quickly change to snow. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses will become slick. ARZ028-036-MSZ001>009-014-TNZ003-004-019>022-048>055-088>092- 071200- /O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0002.200207T0300Z-200207T1200Z/ Mississippi-Crittenden-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn- Tishomingo-Tunica-Tate-Prentiss-Union-Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson- Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood-Crockett-Madison- Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin- Including the cities of Blytheville, West Memphis, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Iuka, Tunica, Senatobia, Booneville, New Albany, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah 727 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of less than one inch on grassy surfaces. * WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi, West Tennessee and East Arkansas. * WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. eather Service Watches, Warnings & Advisories
  4. BNAwx
    36 here just east of Nashville. Just hoping we somehow get an "over-performer" for once...
  5. BNAwx
    May have to go visit the parents in Cookeville in hopes of seeing more than a wet flake or two.
  6. BNAwx
    I was wondering the other day how models generally perform in “la nada” years and if the lack of a strong signal from that region is the reason modeling has waffles around so much this year...more so than normal it seems. I think we would’ve had more stability in modeling and perhaps a better outcome this winter if we would’ve had a true El Niño. I haven’t looked a SST forecasts but hopefully next winter we’ll actually have a weak or moderate El Niño to work with. I’m not saying winter’s over just yet. I usually give it until March 15th then after that, I’m ready for Spring...
  7. BNAwx
    If it were March 23rd, you could bet the house it would verify this time..
  8. BNAwx
    I agree that this setup (as modeled) looks like it has overrunning potential all over it. Depending on where the boundary sets up, I like seeing a SW flow on occasion. If the boundary is far enough to the south, this area can see a good snowfall. More times than not, it seems to be a fence straddling situation and locally we’re on the “wet” instead of “white” end. Regardless, I like seeing these positive changes on most guidance. I had pretty much written January off but if we can squeeze a week to a week 1/2 of a decent pattern at the end of the month, I would consider it a win. A flip back to crappy can certainly happen so I’ll refrain from getting excited just yet...
  9. BNAwx
    I really like the look on the EPS...especially “and selfishly” for the mid state. There’s enough blocking to hold the cold and the cold doesn’t look too overwhelming, but enough to get it done. Also, just enough of a SER to possibly prevent too much suppression. All-in-all, it’s one of the best “looks” we’ve had this season.
  10. BNAwx
    Starting to get some light snow east side of Nashville.
  11. BNAwx
    Hoping the back-end precip doesn’t fizzle out before it reaches Nashville. The last HRR I looked at (few hours old) looked decent for perhaps a dusting...maybe more if we’re lucky enough to get under a heavier band. Down to 37 now...
  12. BNAwx
    Yeah, I lived in Cookeville at the time and I vividly remember when the rain began mixing with then changing over to heavy wet snow. It was definitely unexpected and I believe we ended up with right at 13" if my memory serves my correctly (I'll have to dig out my old notes from back then). Ironically, my wife (girlfriend at the time) lived in Greeneville and I remember calling her and her telling me that they had over a foot of snow, the power was out and it was still coming down hard. She said her dad had picked her up from work and by the time they got home, he was basically plowing the snow with the front of his car because it had gotten so deep. I just remember being jealous that I wasn't there to see it. Little did I know about a week later the same thing would happen in Cookeville.
  13. BNAwx
    Like most here, I think the models in general are struggling at long-leads due to the uncertainty on two pretty big factors. MJO progression and the SSW event. It' simply going to take a while longer to get a clearer picture of what is going to transpire as we get into what I consider to be the "peak" of winter which is roughly January 15th - February 15th. Simply looking at the MJO progression, perhaps it's best to pick a blend of the Euro and GFS at this point. I'm not sure. If that's the case, I do think we'll have a 3 to 4 weeks stretch of true winter with several opportunities to cash in. If the SSW pans out favorably and leads to more sustained blocking, maybe this back-loaded el nino will be one to remember. I guess patience is the moral of the story...
  14. BNAwx
    Looks to be a similar scenario for most snowfall events here in middle TN. Pray there's enough cold air and that it doesn't get scoured out by WAA....
  15. BNAwx
    Other than this latest run of the GFS, it seems there's pretty good consensus (especially this far out) on the track of the low. What I'm wondering is if precip on the northern flank is being underdone on some of the modeling? I've seen it happen before and I'm just wondering if that's a legitimate possibility.
  16. BNAwx
    You are indeed correct. The only reason I know is because my wife (girlfriend at the time) was living with her parents in Greeneville, TN. She called, I asked her what she was doing, and she said they were just sitting around talking because the power was out. I asked her why the power was out and she said it was because they had over a foot of snow on the ground and it was still pouring the snow. Her dad had to pick her up early from work that day because she couldn't drive in the amount of snow that had fallen. She said that by the time they finally got home, the snow was so deep on the road that the car was basically pushing the snow like a snow plow. Like you said, I'm pretty sure they ended up with around 2 feet. I can't begin to tell you how jealous I was. Little did I know that we'd get our own surprise a few weeks later.
  17. BNAwx
    I kept a really detailed "snow chart" from about 1987 to about 1998 when I was still living at home in Cookeville. Any time we had frozen precip of any kind, I'd write it down (pre-computer days). I've still got it somewhere and I need to drag it out to reminisce. My two favorites of course were March 1993 and the surprise thumping we got in early February of 1998. We received over a foot with both events. I also remember the anticipation of the January 1988 event. This is back when Flip Spiceland was on CNN and remember him saying, "Tennessee...you're in for a lot of snow!" Good times....
  18. BNAwx

    Welcome!

    BNAwx replied to Mr Bob's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Just glad to be here. There's a lot of knowledgeable folks on this forum. I hope we all have a banner winter!
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