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BNAwx

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Everything posted by BNAwx

  1. BNAwx
    FWIW, the ICON has it as well.
  2. BNAwx
    As Carvers has mentioned, LC has had about as good a grasp on this winter’s pattern than anyone and I don’t really see a flaw with his thinking the rest of the way. I think we transition back to winter around Valentines Day or shortly after. It seems like V-Day has brought storms or rumors of storms the past few years. All in all, I do think we’ll have at least one more winter storm to track before we break for spring. I’ve always given it until March 15th. After that, I’m ready for spring and warmth.
  3. BNAwx
    Well, I can tell you this. Whatever falls is definitely gonna stick.
  4. BNAwx
  5. BNAwx
    Dang! Pretty big shift. I’ve felt a shift back south on modeling might occur but it was probably 50% from experience watching these types of storms and 50% wishcasting. It is the GFS so who knows….
  6. BNAwx
    Good times…
  7. BNAwx
    I’m not counting on it, but I’ve seen models shift collectively this close to an event both favorably and unfavorably. Sometimes those shifts are pretty significant. It’ll be interesting to see if better data makes a noticeable difference in the evolution of this storm.
  8. BNAwx
    I’d rather have a sleet storm than ice but I obviously don’t get a say in the matter. If I did, we’d get the 15” of snow the models were showing a couple days ago.
  9. BNAwx
    I have no idea if it’ll happen in this case but many times, you’ll see models shift one direction in the mid-range then attempt to correct in the other direction as the event nears. Really wouldn’t surprise me either way.
  10. BNAwx
    Precip shield on the Canadian is crazy.
  11. BNAwx
    Citrus crops don’t like the 18z GFS AI…
  12. BNAwx
    Remember it all too well. Our refrigerator went out on December 23rd. It was cold enough outside that we just put most of our perishables outside in a cooler. That night (technically early Christmas Eve morning) our daughter just happened to go downstairs to get something and came running back up the stairs saying water was coming out of our chandelier. Luckily I was able to break the ice and turn off the water to the house. It all worked out but I can’t imagine what we’d have woken up to the next morning if she hadn’t gone back downstairs.
  13. BNAwx
    I’ll be a little surprised if a sneaky clipper or two doesn’t pop up in the upcoming pattern.
  14. BNAwx
    RAP it up. I’ll take it…
  15. BNAwx
    Nothing like East TN, but we’ve had a few bouts of flurries and snow showers here in middle TN. I’ll take it for November 10th.
  16. BNAwx
    Got a light snow/graupel mix in Hermitage just east of Nashville. Hoping some of those heavier returns coming up from Memphis make it here.
  17. BNAwx
    Looks like this system is starting to crank up in eastern OK and western AR…
  18. BNAwx
    Looks like the ICON has an incoming slider around 180 hrs. Getting some good support for some kind of event around that timeframe.
  19. BNAwx
    Reverse psychology. World every time!
  20. BNAwx
    I don’t really understand their logic either. Even if the GEFS was correct, it appeared to me (when I checked a couple days ago) to have issues getting the amplitude through each phase correct. Basically, it was forecasting a higher amplitude than what actually verified. This is why I agree with you that other indices could easily take over. I haven’t checked today, but the EPO looked like it might be in our favor going forward. We know from years past that it CAN rule the roost in the right circumstances.
  21. BNAwx
    That was a pretty big shift taken by models overnight…especially the GFS. I still think we’re tracking again by Valentines Day give or take a few days. At least I hope we are…
  22. BNAwx
    Slightly off topic, but does anyone know of a source that provides MJO verification info/scores for ALL models? I’ve only been able to find verification scores for the GFS products.
  23. BNAwx
    A warm up is expected, but I do believe we’ll see a return to colder as we approach mid-February (if not a tad sooner). Like many, I think February cold shots could be directed in a more central/western US manner and then spread eastward. Where the boundary sets up will depend on the strength of the SER. For kicks and giggles, I’m eyeing the Valentine’s Day period for a stalled front/overrunning setup. Seems like that Valentine’s Day timeframe has brought storm or rumors of storms the past few years.
  24. BNAwx
    Not yet. Pretty dry so I’m expecting to see only flurries at best.
  25. BNAwx
    I saw a few small flakes when I went out for lunch. We’ve been mostly overcast here with occasional breaks where some sun gets through.
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