BNAwx

I believe Carver said (correct me if I’m wrong) that we need a fresh shot of colder air into our area for these currently borderline systems to produce wintry weather outside of the favored elevated areas. I believe we’ll get that around Christmas give or take a few days. The question is how long it sticks around and will any trough that develops be oriented in a way that allows the cold AND moisture into our area. I personally would like any trough to line up SW to NE to give us an overrunning type set up. I think that’s a good setup to get a board-wide wintry event. Having a low with a January 1988 path is a lot to ask for these days but it certainly would be nice.

As long as we can hold on to the warmer waters in the NE Pacific, I think we’ll be ok. That should give us intermittent opportunities for some cold to be dislodged whenever the PNA decides to spike. If we can hold any Atlantic blocking and slide the ridging into the EPO region, we could be looking at some brutal cold heading our way. I could be way wrong but I don’t see the PV being locked in an unfavorable position for the entire winter like the last couple. I’m also liking the MJO forecasts. It doesn’t seem to want to stray into the warm phases (and strongly at that). I certainly don’t think that’s a bad thing depending on other factors. I would’ve really liked to see the subtropical jet continue but being a Nina, I guess that was too much to hope for. However, it’s winter in the South and all it takes is the slot machine to line up just once and it can make it a memorable winter. Anyway, I follow you guys often, especially this time of year. Not much time to post anything of merit. Great analysis by all and I hope we as an entire forum can have something noteworthy happen this winter!

You are indeed correct. The only reason I know is because my wife (girlfriend at the time) was living with her parents in Greeneville, TN. She called, I asked her what she was doing, and she said they were just sitting around talking because the power was out. I asked her why the power was out and she said it was because they had over a foot of snow on the ground and it was still pouring the snow. Her dad had to pick her up early from work that day because she couldn't drive in the amount of snow that had fallen. She said that by the time they finally got home, the snow was so deep on the road that the car was basically pushing the snow like a snow plow. Like you said, I'm pretty sure they ended up with around 2 feet. I can't begin to tell you how jealous I was. Little did I know that we'd get our own surprise a few weeks later.

I kept a really detailed "snow chart" from about 1987 to about 1998 when I was still living at home in Cookeville. Any time we had frozen precip of any kind, I'd write it down (pre-computer days). I've still got it somewhere and I need to drag it out to reminisce. My two favorites of course were March 1993 and the surprise thumping we got in early February of 1998. We received over a foot with both events. I also remember the anticipation of the January 1988 event. This is back when Flip Spiceland was on CNN and remember him saying, "Tennessee...you're in for a lot of snow!" Good times....

Just glad to be here. There's a lot of knowledgeable folks on this forum. I hope we all have a banner winter!