stormy

That's 20/20. At 240 the 850's are falling as far east as Roanoke, but it seems to favor at least a slightly inland track. A Bay runner?

Richmond is transitioning to rain/mix at 240 as 850's rise rapidly in the 95 corridor. D.C. would probably mix later with this fantasy track at 240. Probably great changes at 00z but if verified as modeled, could be the storm of the winter for many west of the B.R. as 850's and 925's are crashing over W.Va. and southwest Va. as cold air wraps in.

colder column temperatures are wish casting higher ratios

The WPC also sees something that the 12z models didn't see.

The 18z 12k Nam has shifted significantly north, giving my area 5 inches compared to 1 inch at 12z. The 3k Nam has also shifted north giving my area 3 inches compared to .5 inch at 12z. The 18z GFS has shifted north a little giving me 1 inch compared to .5 inch at 12z. The 00z runs will be interesting! Will this northward shift continue?? If the confluence and blocking to the north weakens, it will.

7.5 inches down 81 here in Augusta and still coming down. 27 degrees at 10:30.

You are right! This is a very dynamic system. Atmospherics that evolve later tonight and tomorrow will determine who gets what. I will simplify the equation by predicting that 0 - 500 ft elevation receives 1-5 inches, 500 - 1500 elevation receives 3 - 7 inches, 1500 -4000 ft. rerceives 6 - 15 inches.

I agree, if the author of this map remade it 24 hrs. from now, it would be different. Is that his or her final call? I would be more comfortable with the idea of more people getting more snow if the HP source of cold air in Canada was closer to Ogdensburg, New York than southern James Bay and the 50/50 was closer to the bench mark rather than 300 miles north.

I'll drink to that!! Cheers

Elevation always helps this time of the year. But, a person must feel good about the general synoptics going into this threat. 50/50, Hp nosing down from the northern lakes into the MA and an eastward moving Lp in central Tennessee. That puts nearly everyone in the game. The models should work out the details of wave 1 and 2 during the next 24. That is the one unknown that makes this a little dicey.

You are the epitome of the problem. During the past 24 hours there has been a tremendous amount of controversy and frustration on this board because of the very things that you are sanctioning.

Cobalt: If you were not trolling, my apologies. But you admit to being "snarky" which has no place on this board. If you and your young friends feel a need to vent frustrations in your life, I would advise searching for another venue. passions already run high on this forum without snarkiness.

My excuse is that I have learned from you. You are proud of who you are and don't take nonsense lightly. I know that I should be more restrained as perhaps we all should. It sometimes drills when personal. Some of this had a personal overtone, going back a ways. Have a great evening. Please tell me what time the snowfall will begin Monday night or Tuesday. Just kidding!!!! I am not on the same plane as some on this board.

I am not interested in stop signs or go, but I am a little concerned when Cobalt is relenting to trolling on an otherwise peaceful Friday evening discussing a winter threat next week. Your posts? I couldn't care less.

That GEFS wishcast is nothing more than the EURO telling gullible people early this morning that the northern Virginia area would receive 15 - 30 inches of snow next week.......... Get real and get over you problem. Whatever it is. By the way, I pray that this verifies.