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Everything posted by stormy

  1. That's 20/20. At 240 the 850's are falling as far east as Roanoke, but it seems to favor at least a slightly inland track. A Bay runner?
  2. Richmond is transitioning to rain/mix at 240 as 850's rise rapidly in the 95 corridor. D.C. would probably mix later with this fantasy track at 240. Probably great changes at 00z but if verified as modeled, could be the storm of the winter for many west of the B.R. as 850's and 925's are crashing over W.Va. and southwest Va. as cold air wraps in.
  3. stormy

    April Mid/Long Range & Disco

    colder column temperatures are wish casting higher ratios
  4. stormy

    March 24-25 Storm Threat

    The WPC also sees something that the 12z models didn't see.
  5. stormy

    March 24-25 Storm Threat

    The 18z 12k Nam has shifted significantly north, giving my area 5 inches compared to 1 inch at 12z. The 3k Nam has also shifted north giving my area 3 inches compared to .5 inch at 12z. The 18z GFS has shifted north a little giving me 1 inch compared to .5 inch at 12z. The 00z runs will be interesting! Will this northward shift continue?? If the confluence and blocking to the north weakens, it will.
  6. 7.5 inches down 81 here in Augusta and still coming down. 27 degrees at 10:30.
  7. stormy

    March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis

    You are right! This is a very dynamic system. Atmospherics that evolve later tonight and tomorrow will determine who gets what. I will simplify the equation by predicting that 0 - 500 ft elevation receives 1-5 inches, 500 - 1500 elevation receives 3 - 7 inches, 1500 -4000 ft. rerceives 6 - 15 inches.
  8. stormy

    March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD

    I agree, if the author of this map remade it 24 hrs. from now, it would be different. Is that his or her final call? I would be more comfortable with the idea of more people getting more snow if the HP source of cold air in Canada was closer to Ogdensburg, New York than southern James Bay and the 50/50 was closer to the bench mark rather than 300 miles north.
  9. Elevation always helps this time of the year. But, a person must feel good about the general synoptics going into this threat. 50/50, Hp nosing down from the northern lakes into the MA and an eastward moving Lp in central Tennessee. That puts nearly everyone in the game. The models should work out the details of wave 1 and 2 during the next 24. That is the one unknown that makes this a little dicey.
  10. You are the epitome of the problem. During the past 24 hours there has been a tremendous amount of controversy and frustration on this board because of the very things that you are sanctioning.
  11. Cobalt: If you were not trolling, my apologies. But you admit to being "snarky" which has no place on this board. If you and your young friends feel a need to vent frustrations in your life, I would advise searching for another venue. passions already run high on this forum without snarkiness.
  12. My excuse is that I have learned from you. You are proud of who you are and don't take nonsense lightly. I know that I should be more restrained as perhaps we all should. It sometimes drills when personal. Some of this had a personal overtone, going back a ways. Have a great evening. Please tell me what time the snowfall will begin Monday night or Tuesday. Just kidding!!!! I am not on the same plane as some on this board.
  13. I am not interested in stop signs or go, but I am a little concerned when Cobalt is relenting to trolling on an otherwise peaceful Friday evening discussing a winter threat next week. Your posts? I couldn't care less.
  14. That GEFS wishcast is nothing more than the EURO telling gullible people early this morning that the northern Virginia area would receive 15 - 30 inches of snow next week.......... Get real and get over you problem. Whatever it is. By the way, I pray that this verifies.
  15. Well, hello there Cobalt. I consider your question to be totally out of line for this thread. But, since you asked. Most of Virginia is still abnormally dry. The deep water table in the central valley is only 6 ft. below normal after a wet February. March precipitation has been dismal. Hopefully, a wet spring and summer will bring us back to normal. Hopefully, you will get back to the subject at hand.
  16. No he wouldn't .. Paul would give 25 reasons why this or that or the other might happen, as we often hear from our experts. When I looked at the Euro that many were salivating over this morning, I laughed and threw it in the trash immediately. I knew that it would cave with the 12z run. It did. We have a juicy system threatening us late Monday into Wednesday. I would guess that the climo favored areas may receive 4 - 8 inches of snow. The farther east lowlands will probably be disappointed. But, rarely a system will bomb, pull cold air to the surface and laugh in the face of climo. Will this happen next Tuesday?? We will know a week from today.
  17. At this point I believe that the models are advertising a potential big ticket item next week. We don't know and the models will certainly change over the weekend. I believe that the trend advertises snow for some or all of us. This is a bonus for late March! We are probably all well advised to defer to the experts on this board like Bob Chill ,PSU and the red flags to guide our thoughts. IMO the 18z GFS snowmaps are totally out of sync with what would reasonably be expected in late March.
  18. I did not. These snow maps perhaps are wonderful in mid January, but are optimistic in mid March. Eastern Maryland is at a very low elevation for huge mid March accumulations. You may score high but don't hold your breath.
  19. This map shows a more realistic outcome for mid January. Don't be disappointed, but the heavier accumulations need to be focused on the higher elevations to the west.
  20. The storm is a given with all models. Climo suggests that north and west and even southwest of D.C. does best considering late March. The wonderful aspect is that we are all in the game. This will probably be an elevation event.
  21. My Goodness!!!! The 18Z GFS gives D.C. measurable snowfall before the end of the month!!! Climo suggests that as we approach April 1, 1000 ft. el. is preferred, but before April 1, who knows.
  22. I'll toss this GFS run. With the 50/50 and HP pressing down from Canada, the switch from South Carolina to Virginia for the track is suspect. The 00 or 06 will correct.
  23. April 7, 1971. A low comes in from the southwest with cold air coming in from the north. It bombs! and produces cold air translated to the surface. 17 inches of snow on Afton Mt. to my east. Waynesboro receives 8 inches of snow, on April 7, 1971.