stormy

a balmy 14 early this morning

A $5,000 disaster for my trees was November, 2018

My 10 pm Sunday prediction has evolved to a 100% verification score with the inclusion of the GFS and GEM det. For Augusta County, the 7 am Kuchera model/ensemble blend is 18.2 inches from 4 pm Sat. - 6 pm Sunday. The 10:1 blend is 10.2 inches. IMO, we have reached a peak of prediction. Strong hp up north is still a suppression possibility. The greatest threat during the next 3 days is a downside default because this storm does not fit into 6 month pattern reality. Pattern recognition can be very important in weather forecasting. PSU has said recently that we have wasted many opportunities this winter and that is a disappointment. Here's hoping that everyone is thrilled come Monday morning.

My 7 model blend for Augusta has increased from 6.5" at 7 am to 11.4" at 3 pm. I have to admire the GFS for sticking to it's guns with suppression from strong arctic hp., but the tide seems to be going out........................... I am reminding myself that this is still 5 days away........................... Honestly, I will be very happy with 6 - 8 inches....................

Last night at 10, I posted that significant changes would occur by or before the 12z runs Tuesday. A huge change with 12z today. The GEM skyrocketed from 1.3" to 20.5" in my backyard. More changes are on the way......................

I expect a significant change in this threat by or before the 12z runs on Tuesday.

Sorry You didn't get your 4 inches!!! Blame it on the goofy Euro!

For the next 7 days, 4 ensembles and the ECM control give my area a blended 9.3 inches of snow. The GFS control gives me 0..................... This chart will be very interesting to follow-up on.

The Euro AI deterministic 24/25 event can be given a 20% chance of verification 7 days out. That's better than 10% on deterministic Op. AI ens just downloading.

That's cool, GreyHat and I used to be drinkin buddies.............

Please forgive me!!! I'm so sorry! I'll send 4 to D.C. from my cut. AND, 4 to you from Roanoke. I'm serious!! If you don't believe me, just wait til 00z................

I don't mind sharing! I'll send half of my 8 to D.C. for the 00 run. 4 and 4 seems like a good deal.

09-10 was a once in a lifetime pattern. Nino with +1.0 - +1.5 , NAO -1+, AO Dec.09 -3.4, Feb. 10 -4.2...................... Will we ever see this again??

I received a heavy dusting of snow 6:30 - 7:30. Perhaps .15" Short range models about 1 hr. too slow.

I always liked Christmas, but make that 1-25!

Thursday 12" snow on 1-25 Yesterday, snow disappeared but 0 F. on 12-25..... I said, no-way. This morning, Euro has been re-born to 18 F. on 12-25...... LOL again

You nailed it Chuck, if it materializes. -2 to -4 AO signals are quite often precursors to significant winter weather events.

That's irrational modeling by the EURO. With excellent radiational cooling, maybe. With a 13 mph wind and 76% cloudiness over Augusta, 0 ain't gonna happen.

Too much chaos! The models are on a roller coaster from run to run.................... My 30% on the EURO from yesterday drops to 10%.

They need to get smoked. Winter to date, they are 40% under normal snowfall.

That's called chaos. Scientific reality

I like the 3k resolution and hourly updates.

Well, the EURO 25 threat survived 00z, but much weaker and strung out with less UL support. I dropped from 12 inches to 5 as a measure of strength. I'm a little surprised that it survived! And now the GFS jumps into the fray for a very active last 10 days of January. Bring on the 10:1 stuff. I don't want to measure more dust.

I agree! After pondering, I just reduced that 40% to 30% for my newsletter which sails at 4 pm. If it still populates with significance at 24 hrs., that 30% can increase to 50%. Of course, some weenies are already hyped to 80%, which is a recipe for heartbreak. Some of those read my newsletter. That's another reason to drop to 30% with a caveat about 9 days out. Snow-lovers thrive on hope. I don't wish to be the snow grinch to others. 30% can be a happy median. 40% is a little too bullish.

Euro on the 25th is much better than the GFS on the 28th. Mobile to Charleston to OBX with cold high pressure to the north would work! Warning level accumulations with 850 temperatures well down in the 20's and falling would rule out mixing issues. Considering this is 9 days out I will give it a 40% chance of verifying. If still populating with significance at 24 hrs, that 40% can increase to 60%.