stormy

Yes, "next weekend still has potential" though the father AI has lost interest. EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all interested.................. GFS Op will last about 4 more hrs..

We will have a snow shower at 10:37 pm that will deposit .06" of nothing.

The Euro AI deterministic leads the way then drops it! That was a crazy 06z call by the AI anyway. I don't receive 11 inches of snow with a primary over Toledo! The deterministic GFS and EURO pick it up at 12z. I like the EURO solution. 10 inches of snow with a primary to my south is much better than 11" with a primary 300 miles northwest.

The H5 charts may be fine but the ECMWF AI ens often grossly inflates the snowfall expectations. Gave me 16.5 inches last week and I received 6. On Dec. 8 it gave me 12 and I received 3.5".

Thank You very much for your great wisdom!! IMO, 2" of QP over a 48 hr. period with surface temperatures above 40 would be required to remove the iceberg. That ain't goin to happen....................... We will gradually sweat away during February unless topped off by JI.........................

Thanks! I have fished off of this pier many times.

H5 is not far away from the EPS.

I'll take 3" from the ICON and be happy.

Icon is out on a limb compared to others at 00 and 06 with that H5 look. 12z will be very interesting to see if it persists with the 180.

The drought returns for the next 15 days according to the latest GFS.

I pray that this EPS verifies. Just what the doctor orders for our drought.

Does that diatribe help you to feel better? You need something. Probably a study in creative imagination would soothe your senses. Have a good day my friend. We will chat again under better circumstances. 7 degrees and cloudy at 5:30

You are entitled to Your Opinion and I am entitled to mine. My opinion is only about the truth. Since it's "consistently the best model" in your opinion, I'm very happy that it's finally catching on about 6 hrs. late to a threat on Wednesday/Thursday. Small, but it's there. It might die and it might live but thankfully, spring is on the way.

Thanks, I prefer to get along with everyone, but I don't buy into a belief because of popular frenetic clamor as we often witness. The Euro is without doubt the most reliable model, but, it is far from perfect. A highly intelligent person would say, Euro is number 1 but the GFS is a close number 2. AI gives a 60 - 70% verification for both. I constantly read on this site that the GFS should be retired, banned or otherwise thrown in the trash because of how inferior it is. That is simply not true by intelligent persons. As Jerry Lund used to say, the lunatic fringe is out of control.

My Goodness!!!!!! It looks like the GFS deterministic, GEFS and the EURO AI agree with next Wednesday and Thursday................... How can that possibly be???

Chill out before You have a stroke, we're just having a friendly Thursday afternoon chat.

I certainly don't have a "hate boner" I certainly don't have a "hate boner" for the EURO, but I am realistic and I always tell the truth. I remember Monday morning because as soon as I looked at the Euro map that slp was a big red flag waving.

Thank you Steve! I well remember Monday morning at 7 am when the Euro buried me with 18 inches of snow!!!!! I said, no way, it shows the slp too far off-shore. 6 hrs. later the EURO woke up..............

Icon bumped north from Roanoke to Lexington

Good Morning. I just wish to start the day by clearing up some misunderstandings. The first sentence alleges that I "have a weird fixation with the Euro not being good" Nothing could be farther from the truth. I believe that the Euro is an important contributor, but not a king. If a person believes that a model is king, they may be too quick to discount another, especially if it disappoints. Verification scores place the Euro slightly ahead of the GFS. As I said last night, often, a forecast formulation for success would be something close to 60% Euro and 40% GFS. I read the AFD's from Sterling and Blacksburg almost daily and have been for years. The NWS forecasters often refer to both GFS and ECMWF. They sometimes lean toward one and sometimes the other. Back to the here and now, my significant accumulation forecast has evaporated. The only sources still more than an inch are the EPS at 1.4" and the GEFS at 1.9"................. That would be a nice dust up to this iceberg that I am locked into.

Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules. The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule. Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. These are the important factors to rate a model. It is not a king. Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong. Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast......... Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS...............

That message was the truth. Very simple without getting "socrates" involved.

The King is a figment of your imagination.

The 18z Nam gives me 2 inches compared to .1 at 12z. A step in the right direction!!!!!!!

Yes, I have been following the ECMWF, EPS, ECM AI, GEM and GEPS. If the GFS and GEFS continue dropping precipitously at 18z with no interest from the others, then I agree that You and I are cooked for this one.