stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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25 mph winds again today. Good drying with 48% humidity. 76 degrees
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.83" last 18 hrs. About 12 miles to my south at Sherando in the BR western foothills, 2.26".
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only .06" since 1:30..................... Will this be the usual under- performer???????????????
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Rain began at 1:30. I need 3.77" to erase the drought for the year.
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The latest guidance takes the heaviest rain next week west of the B.R...............................
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36.7 this morning. A 4m model blend for Monday - Thursday rainfall is now 2.38". That would be heavenly!!!
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46.1 degrees at 5:20. This beat the NWS expected low of 53 by far!!!!!
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1.25" last 18 hrs. in the Valley.
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.50" rain at 6 pm
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My greatest fear for rainfall potential is the strength of the Atlantic Ridge over the weekend.
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The 00z 5-1 GEM pushes the heavy rains north into Pennsylvania.
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Precipitation is precipitation, winter or summer when looking 1 - 7 days into the future. The greater the expected sum total, the greater the error factor. The WPC has already changed significantly in the past 20 hrs. with qp amounts for the next 7 days.
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The qp projections for next week will change at least 12 times in the next 6 days. What seems to be the sweet spot at this time will probably change during the next 48 hrs. Lets don't repeat the normal winter mistakes. The huge potential shift is that in conflict with usual patterns, low pressure surface and aloft will dominate instead of high pressure.
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There are signals from different directions that we could turn wet from May 3 - May 13. Will it happen?? 30% probability.....................
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This has a 10% chance of verification:
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A frosty 30.3 this morning. This is 16 degrees colder than the 100 year historical average. Our frost free average date has increased to May 15 in the last 25 years. It used to be May 10.
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This has a 40% chance of verification......................................
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It has indeed. This dry tendency has persisted during Nina and Nino patterns.
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March was very dry in Augusta with only 39% of normal rainfall. April has been dry with 66% of normal rainfall to date. The Extended GEFS and EURO Weeklies believe that May will continue the dry pattern, whatever that's worth!!
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26.8 this morning. Another hard freeze.
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37 mph gust this afternoon. Will calm by Thursday with hp overhead.
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To our northwest, sparks are flying. The models generally say that activity wanes as it crosses the mountains. Will this be true????
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27.5 this morning
