stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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8" with several reports of 9/10 within 10 miles. For tonight, I tossed the NAM 3k which unreasonably depicts .80 zr to 0 zr within 10 miles. A 4 model blend of .23 zr seems reasonable. I expect mostly on elevated surfaces. 32 degrees at noon.
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5.0 inches with heavy snow during the past couple of hrs.. 28.2 degrees
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The models have been advertising this for over 24 hrs. Potential has diminished somewhat during the past 18 hrs.
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Light to moderate snow has been falling for 4 hours. 1.5 inches on the board. 28.6 degrees
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NAM nest gives D.C. proper about 2 inches more than 06z.
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Reports of 4 - 5 inches west of Roanoke in southwest Va. and southern W Va. in the Beckley region.
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My 4 model blend at 7 am is 8.7 inches. Began snowing about 8.
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I was surprised about 2 hrs ago when first looking at the HRRR and hour much it dry slots my area.
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Remember when we talked a few days ago?
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At 5 am the NWS posted a rather stupid WSW for my area of 4 - 6 inches when the models were at 8 inches. My forecast is 6 - 12. I fully expected the NWS to wake up and they did at 3 pm, raising from 4 - 6 to 5- 10.
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I can certainly do that.
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At 6 am the NWS was woefully deficient with their WSW giving my area only 4 - 6 inches. I was and am at 6 - 12. At 3 pm, NWS woke up and raised expectations for Augusta to 5 - 10.
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We'll chat on Thursday. After the Euro was totally blind 72 hrs. ago for my region, it needs to re-earn respect. Perhaps?
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The 18z GFS confirms Tue to be a central Va. special............................
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I would have never believed this
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.35" snow/sleet/zr , .25" acc.
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The ECM says atmospheric memory will rule the roost for Tue/Wed In the 60's looking at hand drawn weather map on the evening news, one friend would sometimes say. "If you see that L in Arkansas, another snowstorm is on the way.
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I'm working on the afternoon update for my newsletter right now. Thanks for the heads-up!!
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That LP trac from Mobile to Norfolk on 22/23 as GFS depicted would be a classic if it verifies.
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Here's the deal..........................
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I cannot detail beyond 1 month increments. The latest at nearly 2.0. is impressive.
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I wouldn't lose sleep over dr no.... 24 hrs. ago it said i would receive .28" rain. I received 1.28'!!!
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You are exactly right!! IMO the AO is the most important winter factor to watch. Here are 7 reasons why: Feb. 1958 -2.40, March 1960 -1.62, March 1962 -2.84, January 1966 -3.23, February 1978 -3.01, January 1996 -1.20, December 2009 -3.41.
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Your rain and mine must have been coming from the same cloud. My Tru Check still has ice inside to melt but very similar. The two inside gauges froze up at about .20"
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You can get away with telling the truth on this blog. I cannot because super weenies will try to put me down. No person and no model knows what is going to happen next week or 2 weeks from now. Volatility is tremendous.
