Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless.
The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z.................... 0 before..................
My 3 model blend increased from 3.1" at 8 am to 4.0 at 2 pm.
GFS increased from 4.6" to 6.2" , Euro 2.6 up to 3.8. CMC ens. 2.0".
3 - 5 seems reasonable for the Central Valley at this point.
You are smart! Snow climo is very fluid depending on where you measure.
Lets be honest, we have been in a snow drought for nearly 10 years. Micromanaging can vary.
I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing.................... I guess, that's what makes the world go around.....................
Overcast and 25 degrees at 4 pm, The latest from the HRRR indicates you might get a little more than me. How is the level of the Jackson? I fish there occasionally.