stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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The EURO splits the difference between the GEM and GFS
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GFS has the same system which is always good, but has the Atlantic ridge weaker and the system is suppressed.
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1 inch last night. 18 at 7 am, up to 25. I plowed out the driveway because we like bare pavement.
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Snow is very slow coming up the Valley from Roanoke.
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I fish Douthat and Moomaw.
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Overcast and 25 degrees at 4 pm, The latest from the HRRR indicates you might get a little more than me. How is the level of the Jackson? I fish there occasionally.
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It takes about 50 lbs to break thru the crust. 40 lb dogs walk on top.
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A heatwave at 23 degrees at 1:00 !!
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1 degree at 6:30. Up to 12 at 10:30. Harrisonburg was 0 at 7 am.
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23 degrees at 4:30 with a very cold northerly breeze of 4 - 8 mph.
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Low of 6 after a high of 29 yesterday. Harrisonburg reported 4 this morning. 3 - 5 mph breeze hindered radiational cooling at my place. 18 at 10:45.
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Many variables exist for the Friday/Sunday threat. Scrutiny at this point is an exercise in futility. Come back 48 hrs. from now......................
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5.5 inches, .5" sleet and freezing rain. A 5" brick that will melt very slowly. 12 degrees this morning.
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Heavy snow and 27.0. I inch on the board. Began at 7.
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3.7 " 12z 6.7 18z
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My 4 model blend is 6 inches. 4 inches GFS, 11 inches ECMWF............ 1 inch of sleet and .20 freezing rain. My call while the models are still at WAR............... 4-7 mixed with sleet and freezing rain for Augusta. 5-9 mostly snow for Winchester/D.C.
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I agree. No blocking high to the north. Only the 50/50. Hope for the best everyone. Goodnight
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I could clearly see a southward shift at 57, the later frames confirm it.
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to illustrate a trend from the previous run
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GEM south
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You better cross your fingers. The present trend is not your friend. 12z will give the bottom line.
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A definite southward shift in Nam at 18z. D.C. now in the bullseye.
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The EURO and GFS are on separate islands, about 100 miles apart. The Euro and UKIE are camped on the same island.
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I love it !! This has been my conviction for 30 hrs. now. This thing is trending north. AS I have posted since noon yesterday, mixing will be a HUGE issue ......................................
