stormy

Total of 4.25". I'm happy because my prediction in my newsletter Monday morning was 3 - 6". The models did quite well 30 hrs. pre-event at 9 pm Sunday, ranging from 3.0" ECM, 4.0" GFS to 4.7 GEM The winner Monday 6 am was the GFS at 4.2 10:1.

As psu said yesterday, do you want the truth or do you want bs. It's outa here by 2 am.

2- 4 inches tapering off after midnight. The earlier guidance has been sustained by the 18z GFS.

GFS beefs up Thursday night/Friday threat. Also GEM, especially for psu

Saved by the GFS!! The best snow looks to be 6 - midnight. Bring it on!

To drop a .10 is only noise, but to drop .25"? Yea, I know its only the NAM but I certainly hope the GFS and GEM don't follow.

The 12z NAM drops qp from D.C. sw the Staunton. Snowfall also drops accordingly an inch or two. Hopefully the 12z GFS does not follow .

About a half inch and 24 degrees with flurries. Roads are white.

I missed the 18z GFS 6 inch line by about 5 miles. My GFS,ECM,GEM,NAM blend is 4.5 inches. I can handle that light fluffy amount with my blade without getting the blower out. Last winter I put the blade and chains on the tractor and took them off in early April without ever using.

I understand. I was looking at the 10:1 total for Augusta from 12z at only 1.8. This is well under the GFS at 3.1 and GEM at 4.7.

OK , I'll follow your advice and look forward to the 18z GFS for comparison The ECM is really conservative compared to the others. Are the better physics telling?

sure

Just smile and be happy, that's headed in the right direction. The NAM Nest has raised you from 3.5" to 6.3". Wow!!! If this keeps up You may need to get your blower out!!!

Nam raises my Kuchera to 4.7 from 4.0. Mt. psu gets 6.2. He said he needed at least 4 so this should make him happy.

I was debating sending a flash to my Newsletter subscribers but I'm holding off. Maybe the forecaster has had 3 or 4 Mimosa's.

Psu: I hear you, believe me. Most of those comments were provoked by a person directing a snarky post toward me. In the future if snarky comments come my way, I will do my best to simply ignore them. Sometimes I believe we all take this board too seriously. Many feel compelled to clash with others when everything is not going their way. Yesterday, you said that the D.C. mean from 17 - 24 has been 6 inches. My mean during this 7 year period has been 14". My mean for the previous 7 years was 31". During the past several years I have noticed an often repeating weakness in the Lakes region that systems turn into. Lake runners and Miller B's seem to dominate which we hardly ever do well with. Miller "A's" seem to be rare. Others have commented about this. Do you believe this is related to our snowdrought?

PSU: I have followed your thoughts probably closer than you realize. Your knowledge is impressive. I at this time really appreciate this reasonable response without the historical angst between you and I. I have at times thought you and I could be friends. We probably got started off on the wrong foot and it was probably my fault. This may have been during the summer of 2021 over my drought conditions. Without wasting precious text space, I really appreciate your admittance that I have noticed more during recent weeks that warming is probably not the only factor in the recent snow drought. I believe that warming could be contributing, especially in D.C. proper but other unrecognized factors are also at play here. The most important consideration is that folks who have a special interest in the weather not be driven to near insanity with hopelessness and they understand that during their lifetime whether they are 15 or 75 the only thing we can do is try to be happy with what we have because we don't have the ability to change it over a lifetime. We will evolve away from any AGW. We will have good snow years and bad snow years in the mentime. I really believe that some have been driven to the depths of despair believing that the world is coming to an end because of warming. I have lived through many ups and downs as I posted from January of 1967. Many of these folks suffering this god-awful despair today will live to see much better times regarding snowfall as I did in the late 60's. Historic snow and cold in January of 1966, springlike warmth in January of 1967, Heavy November snows in 1968. It has been a roller-coaster lifetime of weather.. Many folks on this board hope for snow as I did in January of 1967, only a year after record breaking snowstorms and severe cold, only to be greeted with springtime warmth........... We didn't have any thoughts about warming back in those times and we were only a few years away from the 70's when the best and brightest told us we were approaching another ice-age. My greatest desire is that you and I will have a much better relationship going forward and you won't feel compelled to tell folks to put me on "ignore". I am a very reasonable person if you get to know me.

I agree with you, I also believe the climate is changing as it has for millions of years and it will continue in the future. That is one of the most certain factors regarding life on earth. I also believe that other factors are at play in low snow totals for much of the last 10 years. Regarding 65 degree days in January or February? In Staunton, January 24 of 1967- 71 degrees, January 25 of 1967- 72 degrees, January 26 of 1967 -71 degrees, January 27 of 1967 - 70 degrees.

In support of your thoughts, NOAA says that the warming rate has doubled since 1981 but the pier reviewed data still says 2 F since 1880. The climate is always changing and has been for millions of years. Any speculation about the next 50 or 100 years is just that. But, a snow drought since 2016 in D.C. because of this? I don't believe NOAA would support that idea. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

Euro see's the STJ disturbance over Tenn. early Friday IMO, but the NS simply absorbs it with some enhanced snow showers over West Virginia on Friday.

I am happy that you finally admit that your message is speculation. You are good at what you say, but I am smart enough to see usually hidden speculation written all over it. NOAA which is one of the most respected authorities in the world says that our climate has warmed around 2 degrees F since 1880. Does anyone truly believe that magically a snow drought has occurred during the past 7 or 8 years because of this 2 F warming in the last 140 years? There are other factors at play that we don't know or understand. I have no doubt.

The GEM already says no though it is sniffing.

This could actually work! Finally hp up north while intensifying disturbance moves from Tenn. - N.C. Coast.

The upslope regions along the Allegheny Front are doing very well. Even above normal snowfall for the winter! Canaan Heights W.Va. reports 67 inches to date compared to a normal 54 thru Jan. 10.

.39" last night. 3.69" for Jan.