stormy

I think most of us will be OK except for some light scattered frost in low lying areas. I'm 49.3 at 9:45 which gives comfort. If I was under 45 I would have greater concern. I looked around Highland and the coldest is Vanderpool at 42, Monterey is 47. We'll know in about 8 hrs..

FROST ADVISORY !!!!!!! After 37.0 at 7 am, even colder tonight with residents warned of possible frost!!!!!!!!!!! https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ025&warncounty=VAC015&firewxzone=VAZ025&local_place1=4 Miles SSE Churchville VA&product1=Frost+Advisory&lat=38.1779&lon=-79.1425

A fire season peak occurs in your area in the fall after deciduous trees lose their leaves.

44 again this morning. The next 10 days look cooler than normal with below normal precip. Thunderstorm season is over. We're at the mercy of very weak tropics.

Thanks my friend! I agree, 2020 was remarkable but only 14 hurricanes when 2005 had 15. I was not really impressed with last year as Idalia was the only land-falling hurricane.

Yes, I know it's still early, but it is absolutely amazing how so many truly believed 10 - 20 years ago that Climate Change would be like pouring gasoline on a fire for hurricane frequency and strength. It was so bad that some insurance companies stopped issuing policies. Now, a record breaking season predicted for this year. I look forward to being wrong on November 5 when Sara gives me 10 inches of rain and a flood.

43 degrees early this morning. That's 15 degrees below normal! 5 years ago this morning it was 60 degrees.

My snow-drought has been 7 years. I seriously doubt that this short range aberration could honestly be significantly attributed to Climate Change which should take at least 25 years to establish a trend. Throughout history, short and long range weather patterns appear, disappear and re-appear. I have been predominately dry for the past 4 years. Prior to that, I had 3 wet years. Historically, La Nina winters are low snowfall for Va/Maryland, therefore this winter will likely continue the trend. More on that later.

Latest GFS and ECM say no phasing with the late week system. The inch of rain for the Valley is now less than a tenth as most rain skirts north along the coast.

Another Watch receives .15" model compliance. NOAA is frantically searching for reasonably acceptable credibility...........With???...........................................

I agree.. La Nina is always bad news, but -PDO is even worse. I will be posting some historical La Nina info soon...................... depressing..............

I beat you!! I got .12"

You need to re-visit Christmas 1969. I received 12 inches with a high of 24 and a low of 14.

Flash Flood Watch thru midnight for my backyard............................. A 4 model blend during this time gives me .48".

After a very dry last half of August, the GFS has been insisting for the past 24 hrs. that much of west central Virginia turns wet from August 29 - Sept. 10. Now, the 12z NAM 12 likes 24 - 84 wet.

The 06z GFS gives many of us a soaking from a northeast Gulf system Sept. 4 - 7.

46.5 this morning

43.5 at 7 am

41.7 this morning was 20 degrees below normal.

My goodness!!! The 18 z Nam 3kn has warmed up to 43 degrees tomorrow night!!!!!! For my place..

The Valley hails with .01" over the weekend............ Here comes the drought again. Hey, fall is right around the corner. The NAM 3k gives me 39 degrees Wednesday morning!!!!!!

Latest WPC expected rainfall for the next 7 days from 1800z . Less than a quarter inch for western regions. 50" - .75" for eastern regions.

Sterling says the coming week will feel more like late September!

The latest NAM packages leave the Valley out while drenching D.C.. More of a 2 year pattern.

Every year, we gather in the fall to throw darts at the winter. This is entertaining and somewhat hilarious Other than a trivial distraction, interest is limited. Real Deal analogs are based on historical data............... I will provide some of this before Nov. 1.......