stormy

I totally agree that it is too early to give up on early January. I am invested in January 3 - 6. The ECM/EPS runs may look much better tomorrow. The joy of this hobby is like the weather in New England. "If you don't like it, wait 10 minutes and it will change".................

The third word of your comment says it all: ignore ....... Have a better day tomorrow.

You are correct. Instead of splitting between 240 and 360 hrs.. I decided to lump the two in tandem, covering the period up to Jan 6. This has both covering the 29 threat and the EPS the 29 & Jan 5 threat.

The 12z ECM and EPS say no significant winter weather through Saturday, Jan. 6. Everything is too progressively zonal.

I really enjoyed reading the long ago memories from PSU this morning. You should finish that met. degree at some point. The personal reward would be tremendous. This caused me to reflect on many memories of my own of snowstorms all the way back to the 60's. Though very young, I have fleeting recall of the March 5 - 8 1962 "Ash Wednesday Storm" that dumped 30 - 36 inches in my area. We were snowbound for several days before a bulldozer opened our road. Late Jan. of 66 gave us 37 inches in 7 days from 3 storms with 10 ft. drifts. Every highway in Augusta County blocked with drifts on Sunday, Jan. 30. Regarding the GFS for the 29th, taken literally the op. gives me 5 inches at 10:1 but the surface temps at 36 - 37 degrees at the 1201 Ft. Valley Airport would likely make this an accumulation elevation event mostly above 1500 ft. even in pre-dawn darkness.

Much of the Valley is still in severe drought.

The 12z deterministic GFS gives warning criteria snow to the 81 corridor in the Jan. 4 - 6 time-frame. This of course will all change but I see this as a determination of pattern. The 21 members of the GEFS give basic agreement to the pattern, but as earlier this week and last, it disagrees with its own parameters if looking at literal precip. type. That is a repetitive flaw with this ensemble. The 12z EPS is superior to the GEFS in this regard.

The 00z and 06z guidance is looking good for a colder, unsettled period during Jan. 1 - 5. 17.8 degrees this morning.

I am on record as liking the first 5 days of January, for unsettled wintry conditions across the MA. Cold air will be settling south from HB. The STJ should be amplifying.

14 degrees early this morning in Augusta County.

That would be workable with about 170% of normal rainfall. We'll get our heavy snow later in Feb. and March.

I don't know how to deal with this.

My post was basically focused on how the pattern may evolve over the next 2 - 3 weeks. My 378 map was not intended to offend you.

We are, but we're having a lot of fun!

Please allow me to address your concern. My post was a critque of the 240 hr. GEFS and why it probably won't work because of thermals, but it could set the stage for the next system. Regarding 300+ maps, LOL, this site and thread is loaded with 360 and 384 maps.

As progged by the GEFS, the 28 - 30 system is still too warm. But, it may be setting the stage for the next system by pulling colder air down from the Lakes. Yes, this is fantasy-land beyond 300 hrs. but we could have a winner in the first 5 days of Jan. Source of origination, northwest Gulf is prime all the way back to the 60's. Usually a general track to Alabama/ southeast North Carolina and up the east coast has produced. Recently, eastward across the Gulf intensifying up the east coast as the GFS paints is good. Upper air temps. look good to support snow. The GEFS contradicts itself at 360 by showing rain with a minus 4 850 and the 540 in N.C...... The Op may be onto something.

1.26" total. Western mts. not so lucky, Monterey only received .33".

My water table has risen 1.9 ft during the 6 inches of wasted water. Still exactly 20 ft. below April 12. We need at least 12 - 15 more inches of that wasted water between now and April. A lot of heavy wet snow cover would also be very beneficial.

That "6 inches of wasted water" was wonderful drought mitigation for western folks.

Are you sure?????

WINTER STORM WATCH for western Highland County for late Monday. 6 - 12 inches possible. This is only 145 miles west/southwest of D.C. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ503&warncounty=VAC091&firewxzone=VAZ503&local_place1=4 Miles WNW Monterey VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=38.4284&lon=-79.6419

The GFS and GEFS still show a storm 28 - 30. GFS brings an inland runner with rain. The GEFS still likes the coastal solution. The 850 temps. are more reasonable for some snow from Staunton to D.C. with the 06z GEFS run.

I am tracking a likely rainstorm but also watching for any hint of something else like last Sunday night.

That can happen with an up-slope easterly flow.

Then 18z GFS puts the bullseye over Augusta County: