stormy

I agree! After pondering, I just reduced that 40% to 30% for my newsletter which sails at 4 pm. If it still populates with significance at 24 hrs., that 30% can increase to 50%. Of course, some weenies are already hyped to 80%, which is a recipe for heartbreak. Some of those read my newsletter. That's another reason to drop to 30% with a caveat about 9 days out. Snow-lovers thrive on hope. I don't wish to be the snow grinch to others. 30% can be a happy median. 40% is a little too bullish.

Euro on the 25th is much better than the GFS on the 28th. Mobile to Charleston to OBX with cold high pressure to the north would work! Warning level accumulations with 850 temperatures well down in the 20's and falling would rule out mixing issues. Considering this is 9 days out I will give it a 40% chance of verifying. If still populating with significance at 24 hrs, that 40% can increase to 60%.

The 2m anomaly for Jan 24 - 31 on the GFS changed dramatically from 06 - 12z. Much colder!

We need a complete pattern change. I have hopes for later spring and summer as an El Nino is predicted to develop. A spring branch that flows thru. my property perked up a little from the rain but is still very low for January.

After the 1.20" of rain last week, my rate of fall leveled off a little. For a 7 day period from 12-19 to 12-26 , my water table dropped .73 Ft. For the 7 day period from 1-08 to 1-15 my water table only dropped .43 Ft. Glorious drought mitigation!!! 1.20" last week was 12% of rainfall needed.

That will update later this morning.

YES, " expectations should be low when only one model is depicting the desired outcome over several runs" Many are so irrationally starved for snow that they allow expectations to be hyped, then try to crucify the offending model with irrational nonsense when it shrinks away from the desired outcome. This time, the offending model is the GFS.................. Historically, the EURO has also at times been the offender. It's time to cool our emotions and look forward to the future. I will probably have more to say later today.

The GEPS, GEFS and EPS have all had some interest in Sunday, going back 5 days , and it continues. Deterministic interest is only with the GFS at this time.

Well, here we are less than 72 hrs. from event #1. I can already see cirrus mares tails gathering in the s.w. As I said a couple days ago, eastern areas are more favored on Thursday/Thursday night. Western zones will enjoy favoritism later in the season as we climb toward neutral Enso and the stj shifts north. The 330 Euro is not worth serious scrutiny at this time even though the EPS sniffs in that direction.

WB EPS totals Thursday/Friday/Friday

We now seem to have a focus on Thursday/Friday. As I have said recently, I don't like complication. There is a near certainty of changes. Some will be happy with changes and some, not so happy.

The models give a shotgun presentation of very little this morning. Yes, I know that there are hints and sniffs, but nothing to really hone in on. Ensembles and controls are wandering around in opposition. The last half of January seems to be an active period and I believe that a focus will develop.

I started out slow but serious rates during the past hour have bumped me up to around .50". I'm down about 8 inches since June.

GFS on steroids! This won't happen. I'll take my 8 inches on Thursday and be satisfied for January. Well, I am in Severe Drought and need the moisture. Bring it on!!

Radar has been green to yellow over me since 4 am. I have only received .05" !!

As I suspected 3 hours ago!

I could get enthusiastic about this.

This puzzle will have many moving parts, but, as currently depicted, the 95 corridor probably does better than western areas for the 18th and 19th. I don't like complication.

The GEM gives me 6.2 inches at 240 with snow still falling. -14 at 850 dictates no mixing issues.

This is just right!! I told my newsletter crowd yesterday afternoon that Sat or Sun., 17th or 18th, was the first genuine threat!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks for your expert analysis. It is greatly appreciated .

I appreciate your suggestion, but No, I won't ignore them. I fully understand that they are supposed to be more accurate than the deterministic models because of more data input across various parameters. A higher skill score should be achieved, especially for complex systems or longer term considerations. I will develop a comparison chart for ECM/EPS and GFS and GFS ens. Saturdays rain will be a good first comparison.

I ask everyone a question............................... Are we grasping at straws when we look at Ensembles????? The ensembles ARE A DISASTER...................... I ASK EVERYONE, what have you learned from the ensembles in the last 10 days?????????? Are we losing reality because of focus on ensembles.????

NW flow is good for Elkins or Oakland. It usually kills east of mts., winter or summer.

Euro increases Augusta qp from .69" to 1.08" Saturday. More moderate rates east of cyclogenesis over Tenn./Ky.