stormy

The GEM already says no though it is sniffing.

This could actually work! Finally hp up north while intensifying disturbance moves from Tenn. - N.C. Coast.

The upslope regions along the Allegheny Front are doing very well. Even above normal snowfall for the winter! Canaan Heights W.Va. reports 67 inches to date compared to a normal 54 thru Jan. 10.

.39" last night. 3.69" for Jan.

AMEN

The GFS has been awful before and wrong before. The 18z GFS still gives me close to 12z at around 5 inches Kuchera. But, it makes no difference!!!! 24 hours from now, it will likely be vastly different. How is it possible that so many who profess loyalty to this hobby don't seem to understand that.

LOL I am surprised that you are throwing in the towel because of the 12z NAM. LOL

I'm happy to hear your analysis . The GGEM was on steroids at 12z!

An ancient Chinese proverb says that "a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step" The Euro took a step today but the GFS also took a step. Which one is in the right direction?? The GEM believes it knows with its giant step!!

Looks better than Tuesday

Great to hear from you!! 10 years ago you were a prominent member of this board and your highly educated common sense touch was always very impressive to me. I miss those times. Please visit often and all the best to You and your family.

The CMC ens is OK. The GEM op is lacking blue over D.C./ Augusta

This morning it is basically GFS/ICON vs. ECM/GEM . What is your preference?

The blue shrinks on the 06 EPS

You better look again

We're on an 18z GFS high right now................. Where will we be at 6 am if Dr. No persists???

At 15z Tuesday the GFS places the LP inside of Hatteras. That is very important for inland areas! The EURO will cave at 00Z IMAO........................

GFS STANDS PAT..........................

At this point the deck is stacked against the Op. Euro. It is an outlier without a friend. The EPS, GFS and GGEM all say yes and it is Dr. NO If the 18z GFS stands pat, I believe the 00z Euro will come back into the fold. If the 18z GFS collapses , well....... better luck next time. Remember, the models are smarter than we are. Wouldn't it be nice if they gave a 3 paragraph reasoning explanation of every run?

It's been happening all last summer. That's why we're still in a moderate drought in the Valley. I'm not saying that! The U.S. Drought Monitor is...........................

About noon yesterday when I said in this thread that "I would rather place this lp near Myrtle Beach than 275 se of NYC", I of course had no idea that future runs of the Euro would come close to that desire. I only knew from historical observation that a coastal hugger from Charleston to Norfolk with cold air in place usually does the trick for inland areas. January 29 of 1966 witnessed the coldest major snowstorm of my life. At 4 pm in Augusta County I recorded whiteout conditions with a temperature of +4. The lp at 6 pm was near New Bern in southeast N.C.. Tuesday's threat as currently modeled should make many happy with a light to moderate several inches of snow. Changes can and will occur at 5 days out. The Euro could fringe inland area's with lp 50 - 100 miles off the N.C. coast. The GFS would only give flurries with no organization but a frisky sw and incoming trough over western Va. enhances snowfall. The next few days should be very interesting!

Make that a Hazardous Driving Warning

Thanks for your correction! Closer scrutiny would have said the 12z ECM is OTS as modeled regarding significant Va. impact but does give significant snowfall up the coast from Delaware to Boston with the center well offshore. The GFS follows a similar track but flounders around in the Atlantic until consolidating about 200 miles east of Cape Cod on Wed. morning.

Though the GFS has trended toward the ECM off the SC coast, the pattern is too progressive and its still OTS like the 12z ECM.

The Big Three are all trending in the right direction. This is not the final solution but a definite sw shift with action by the current leader. My wish in this thread 2 hours ago about Myrtle Beach instead of 275 se NYC seems to be in the cards.