I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate. Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years.
Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless.
The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z.................... 0 before..................
My 3 model blend increased from 3.1" at 8 am to 4.0 at 2 pm.
GFS increased from 4.6" to 6.2" , Euro 2.6 up to 3.8. CMC ens. 2.0".
3 - 5 seems reasonable for the Central Valley at this point.
You are smart! Snow climo is very fluid depending on where you measure.
Lets be honest, we have been in a snow drought for nearly 10 years. Micromanaging can vary.
I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing.................... I guess, that's what makes the world go around.....................
Overcast and 25 degrees at 4 pm, The latest from the HRRR indicates you might get a little more than me. How is the level of the Jackson? I fish there occasionally.