stormy

We seem to be experiencing a dose of reality this morning as we talk about winter weather patterns. Some seem to remember the 60's as the coldest/snowiest decade in the last 100 years and lament recent years as if we now live in a semi tropical climate. I lived through the 60's, I have good memories and good records. Sure, the 60's had many cold patterns during winter and several heavy snowfall winters. I remember ice skating on area rivers and snow sledding when it seemed snow was always on the ground. Honestly, my recall of the 60's focuses on the very cold snowy times. But guess what, as Terpeast said, we always seem to remember the cold snowy times and forget about the other warm, rainy times. March 5 - 7 in 1962, the Shenandoah Valley received 24 - 36 inches of snow during the Great Ash Wednesday Storm............................ Guess what the month preceding that storm was like? Feb. 4 of 62 at Staunton was very mild at 64 degrees, Feb. 5 of 62 saw 70 degrees, Feb. 6 very mild with 66 degrees, Feb 23 of 62 nice at 66 degrees, Feb. 28 had 68 degrees. February of 1962 gave Staunton 2.39" of rain and no snow. March 1 of 1962 found folks saying spring is here at 70 degrees !!!! 5 - 6 days later we received 2 - 3 feet of snow!!! March 9-10 produced another 5 inches of snow.

The 18 z GFS is catching up with the ECM Weeklies..................................................................

4.6 this morning

If the projected pattern repeats for the next week, probability of verification certainly increases.

Since I posted the good look on the Euro Weeklies at 9:22 Saturday morning, others have became interested and no experts have pooh-poohed the synoptics. With the new run today, no real changes. Anytime after Feb. 10 - March 10 should bring good times for snow-lovers if verification is realized.

15 degrees at 6 pm. Headed to Zero tonight.

The stream that flows through my property was higher during this Jan. 96 flood than elderly people could remember ever before.

I remember it well. 30 inches of snow followed by 3.20 inches of rain a week later. Almost unbelievable!!!!!!!

My friend, the chances of serious flooding during the next 15 days is minimal. Snowpack melt is negligible as less than an inch of qp is in most snowpack. WPC 7 day qpf is 1.0 - 1.5 inches. This timeframe will completely eliminate snowpack. Have no fear of serious flooding unless guidance changes significantly.

I'm at 1300 ft. though there are 1550' elevations no more than a mile away. I'm looking at 3000 ft. elevations in the Blue Ridge about 4 miles to my east.

March has been a big winter month in my region going back to 1960. 1962 put the icing on the cake. For anyone suffering amnesia, 1993 reminded.

Nothing but noise

The GFS is doing its normal run to run disco from Jan. 30 - Feb 5. Regarding a possible late winter pattern, the Euro Weeklies more or less paint a January thaw beginning early week and extending thru Feb 5. Could be mild and wet. A developing plus PNA encourages eastern troughiness and lower heights from Feb. 15 - March 5. If that verifies, late Feb. into March could be quite interesting. Experts, please tell me why this wouldn't work.

Only .70" snow in Augusta. The GFS, ECM, GEM and NAM were all wrong 24 hrs. ago about the southward suppression of the snow at nearly 2.00 inches for Augusta. The ICON was the closest to correct model at .90".

The Shenandoah is truly God's World! Just don't tell anyone!!!!!!

My Augusta 4 model blend with the 12z GEM, 18z GFS, ECM and NAM increases from 1.3" to 1.9". Kuchera increases from 1.7 to 2.4" 18z NAM 12 k spiked from 1.2 to 2.5" and the 3k Nest jumped from 1.1 to 2.8" . NWS says WWA with 1-2, how about 1-3????

I did not include the ICON in the blend.

Out here in Augusta County my 4 model blend has increased from .5" last night to 1.3" with the 12z runs. 1.7" Kuchera. A definite shift south on the GFS, ECM, GEM, NAM and ICON.

One piece of Trivia that some may be interested in. Knoxville, Tenn. received 9.5 inches of snow Tuesday. According to the NWS, their average annual snowfall is 4.6 inches. Doubled that in one storm!!

Historically, Nino winters are not wet, wall to wall. We have been wet for 60 days. This is likely a time-out. I predict a wild and woolly period from Feb 1 - March 25. This would mimic 1958 which psu refers to. Mid Feb. thru Mid March of 1958 was historically brutal, breaking many snowfall records across Virginia/Maryland. We may do it again....

What more could anyone say. My blend has dropped from 2.0 to .5 in 24 hrs.. Here comes the drought!

My 4 model blend for Augusta dropped from 2.0 to 1.4 overnight.

Overnight low of +3 at 12:30. 8 at 7:30 with an 11 mph wind.

My 4 model blend is up to 2.00" for late Thursday night/Friday for Augusta County.

Be careful