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stormy

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Everything posted by stormy

  1. stormy
    The ICON is what I have been trying to communicate in the last 24 hours. Accurate? Who knows
  2. stormy
    I dropped from 9.3 at 06z to 5.0 at 12z on the Euro. It caved toward the GEM and GFS with the southern margin. It dropped qp in my area from .95" to .69"
  3. stormy
    The GFS is very erratic with the movement of low pressure from western Tennessee/Kentucky to the east coast. This must be clarified with future runs to determine who gets what.
  4. stormy
    If the 50/50 weakens it will cut. The 06z ECM actually shifts the 50/50 slightly west and slightly increases ne confluence , hence the slight southward shift.
  5. stormy
    Like a wall! The precip. cant' get across the mountains ................................................................
  6. stormy
    The ICON greatly diminishes Mondays potential....................... DROUGHT??.................
  7. stormy
    Euro shifts north 50 - 75 miles with 12z. Not good because Miller B's are notorious for serious mixing issues. No more of this!! Get back down in Tennessee and North Carolina.
  8. stormy
    A shift in the right direction!! Be patient............. I'll take my 3 inches and be happy.
  9. stormy
    Excellent point!!
  10. stormy
    The GFS was suppressed south which is no big deal at this point. The GEM is also suppressed south which brings it right into my backyard.
  11. stormy
    12z GFS more amped.
  12. stormy
    Very simple! Trash the 18Z GFS and look forward to 00z
  13. stormy
    .32" so far. Warmer today, 56 at 9:30.
  14. stormy
    The GEM saves us at 270:
  15. stormy
    Not always but will often trend in that direction. In January of 66, I received 16 inches of snow in one storm that found heavy snow falling with a 3 pm temperature of +4! Coldest I ever witnessed in the middle of a snowstorm!!
  16. stormy
    That can happen east of the mountains. 76 - 77 was possibly the coldest winter in 200 years but was often suppression city . The AO was -2.07 in December of 76, -3.76 in January of 77 and -2.01 for February 77 Read all about it: https://www.secretsoftheeasternshore.com/eastern-shore-deep-freeze/ The 1976–77 Winter in the Contiguous United States in Comparison with Past Records in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 106 Issue 10 (1978)
  17. stormy
    The AO tanking to -3.00 to -4.00 is classic for historical severe patterns. 09 - 10 it tanked to -3.41 with an NAO -.1.10. The PDO was -.50 The AO is almost always the deciding factor. 77-78 found the AO tanking to -3.01 with an NAO of -.12. The PDO was +.50.
  18. stormy
    The CPC January temperature anomaly along the east coast is being destroyed by the 6 - 24 day.
  19. stormy
    It has been cold! Forecasted high from NWS was 46. Actual high was 41!!!! This is 5 degrees colder than normal.
  20. stormy
    Last Sunday at 4:22 pm I said that Jan. 3-8 was a 5 day threat period.............................. To bat 1000, I think that I will stand pat..................
  21. stormy
    Ain't it sweet
  22. stormy
    The warning criteria used to be 4" or more.
  23. stormy
    NYC has first White Christmas in 15 years! Happy Holiday for the Big Apple!! https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/weather/2024/12/24/white-christmas-returns-to-nyc-for-the-first-time-since-2009
  24. stormy
    The WPC likes the ECM
  25. stormy
    The 06z GFS is honking at 200 hrs.. As depicted upstairs is OK, surface is very marginal, HP not in a good position, probably an elevation event. I'll take 5 inches and be happy. ECMWF sees the threat but is 48 hrs. faster, greater problems with column thermals. GEM is blind to any threat.
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