stormy

During the next 15 days, the Pacific should relax enough to pull out support for the SER. Mid and late January is promising.

In the very unlikely probability of verification. The SER would likely push into the OV or be an Apps. runner.

CBS 19 in Charlottesville reported at 6 pm only 1 inch of rainfall since late October and they are saying we need rain badly. This is seriously affecting the water table. A USGS test well in Rockingham County indicates the 250 ft. water table is 1 ft. lower than during the drought last summer!!! This is seriously affecting our subsurface water level for next spring and summer. Prayerfully, it will change to above normal precipitation during the late winter and spring. If not, we are in serious trouble in the spring.

After a very dry November, I have received only .09" of rainfall during the first 21 days of December. Normally, the first 21 days of December would give my location 1.68" of rain and melted snow.

.78" rainfall to date for July. Normal for July 19 would be 2.66" 30% of normal rainfall for July.

Real time radar depiction over southwest Virginia gives the 06z ECM,& HWRF the greatest accuracy. The GFS, GEM and both NAM's are out to lunch.

The westward shift overnight is pure Joy. The HWRF, HMON, NAM 3k and GEM all give my area much needed very beneficial rainfall on Thursday.

Its official. My rainfall total for May is .87". The driest in the last 42 years. The second driest was 1.60" in 1991.

If this pattern doesn't soon change, the Valley may witness the driest May since at least 1979. Only .18" the first 16 days of May.

That 1040 HP just north of Ogdensburg is definitely a "big deal" if the LP tracks through southeast Va..

For my immediate area the Euro has consistently been 5 - 10 degrees too warm for the past week with afternoon highs. The GFS and GEM have been more accurate.

The last 30 days have averaged less than 50% rainfall in the Hagerstown/Martinsburg area and Dale City/Fredericksburg region. The next 10 days looks like well below normal rainfall on the 00z Euro. My earlier short-term deficits have shifted northeast.

Northern Virginia is quite dry.

Portions of northern Virginia, Maryland and southeastern Pa. are getting very dry . The next 10 days are marginal.

I received 1.33" of rain during the last 16 hours. Wonderful!

A 6 am 3 model blend (GFS/ECM/GEM) gives Augusta County 1.68 rain late Sunday through Monday. If this verifies, it would be the greatest event rainfall since January 25.

I have received .39" of much needed rain during the past 24 hours.

I'll take about 8 - 12 inches of wet snow. Wonderful moisture additive. 49 years ago today, my area received 8 - 10 inches of snow.

I'm sorry Will but as I explained last week, 10 day precip. maps almost always dry up recently. To dry from 2.56 to .85 is the same old story, but that will change.

I'm odd in the respect of being concerned about a recurring pattern that has resulted in less than 50% rainfall for a large portion of my immediate region during the past month. I'm odd in the respect that I am very sensitive to the hardship that will be created for many people engaged in agricultural pursuits if this pattern repeats and persists during April and May. Reasonable people would have the attitude, hey, I hope you folks down in the central valley do better with rainfall during April than you did during March. Unfortunately, you don't seem to be in that reasonable category. I agree with PSU in believing that we will see a change during the next month or two. If we don't, things will be bad for a lot of people. Have A good day.

Thank you! I I have been thinking too much zonal flow that puts us in the shadow of the western mountains and too much repetitive high pressure surface and aloft over Virginia that simply dries out systems trying to move in.

The 06z GFS believes the next 10 days will be an instant replay:

PSU : I am waiting patiently. Please don't disappoint.

OK, you are a smart person regarding climate cycles and weather patterns. I'll give you that much. Will you please give it your best shot to explain why this hopefully short term anomaly has occurred? The 00z ECMWF believes it will continue for at least the next 10 days though the precipitation hole does shift a little northeast. For at least the past month, if the GFS, ECM or GEM sees a break coming, it always repeats as we get to 2 - 5 days before showtime. Please give me an educated and reasonable explanation.