stormy

They usually have a much sharper perception than humans. Humans are too consumed in knowing when the next 384 hour ensemble or 7 month model is coming in.

Whether its the 4th or 7th or the 13th. The amount of gloom is amazing. 50 years ago before all the nonsense with models, folks didn't worry about all of this crap, and it occasionally snowed. The historical sweet time has always been Jan. 15 to Mar. 15. Considering all the possibilities I don't believe we will be disappointed. Many will be hilariously happy with 5". We don't need 18 inches.

I was disappointed to receive only .52". A definite underperformer from the modeled 1.60" on Monday.. But, happy that December produced 189% of normal at 4.91". Hopefully the STJ will stay active the rest of the winter and continue delivering above normal precip. Our water table has came up around 5 feet, still 17 ft. below April.

Comparing modern times to the 60's can be risky. My detailed records reveal a high of 65 for Christmas day of 1964 and 63 for Christmas day of 1965. January of 1966 began with a cloudy, showery Jan 1 with a high of 56.

The historic Jan. 66 blast didn't begin until Jan. 22. During the next 2 weeks we had nearly 40 inches of snow. Everybody needs to settle down and be patient!

You are 100% correct!!!!!!!

I'm fine with you Cape. I believe you are 20/20.

The main reason "this place needs a lift' is because it is almost incessantly told how bad everything is.

Historically, Jan. 15 - March 15 for my area. I don't consider the snow season over until April 10. Several 6+" snows in early April last 50+ years.

As modeled by the GFS, the Jan. 2 system only degrades for wintry potential with the 12z run. Pre-storm east and southeast surface winds bring in mild air off the Atlantic. Surface temps. are too warm for snow nearly everywhere below 3000 ft.. Even the 81-corridor where snow is painted would more likely be a sloshy mix. The winners would be the western mountains above 2000 ft. This is only my opinion based on the 12z run.

On Sunday afternoon I said, "Don't be too quick to give up on Friday". The 12z GFS now agrees: Only a snapshot in time, but we'll see.

At 192 that low is at least 75 miles too far north/northwest for D.C..... It should be closer to Cape Charles.. That type of track would be ok for west of the Blue Ridge.

Merry Christmas!!!!!!

Don't be too quick to give up on Friday. The Midwest gyre gives many of us soaking rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the upper level energy moves across Virginia on Friday, timing and a little more consolidation could give some areas a snowfall similar to Dec. 11. Only a weak surface reflection offshore and no real source of cold air to draw from tend to stack the deck, but this system carries adequate cold air. Slow it down and add a little more juice could turn the trick, something like planting surface LP over Norfolk at 10 pm Friday.

Wow!! Both the ECM and GEM give much of Augusta County 2 inches of rain during the next 168 hrs.. This Nino is producing. Many Valley folks have been praying for a wet Winter. December is making a solid contribution.

Yesterday afternoon, the 18z GFS op. made some flawed assumptions IMO that culminated in a major snowstorm for our region around Jan. 6 - 7. IMO, a very erratic track would not survive the test of time and I so stated my opinion. It did not survive the test of time. Period, Stop The period between Dec. 28 - Jan. 10 should be active and produce some snow for most of us. I believe most of us agree or at least hope for this reality. Accurate details are not available at this early date. Early speculation will likely change, but that is ok for those who wish to speculate. I will not criticize those who throw cold water on my ideas. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. Enjoy your life and now I begin a busy day.

You missed the erratic LP gyrations, Beckley s.w. to Ashville to Charlotte. Cad on steroids? Wait until tomorrow morning.

I am happy for all the Snow Geese who are honking !!!! The op. GFS is very erratic with the track of L.P. during the 336 - 378 hr. timeframe. This is not likely to survive. During the past week, we agreed that looking beyond 300 hrs. on an op. is foolish. The GEFS does believe that L.P. will be developing in N.C. at 7 am on the 6th, transferring to eastern N.C. and eastern Va. at 1 p.m. That can be a good sign.

Guess what? The 18z GFS now transfers energy south at the last minute, and dumps snow on Jan. 6. 8 inches for me and 11 inches for D.C. by Sunday morning. My wish with psu nearly came true!!!!! Hooray!!!!

Hey, guess what, we agree! For the past 2 hrs., I have been rather foolishly grilled because I simply told the truth about the Euro package today. Many folks seem to be very protective of their desires which is rather juvenile. As long as others support their dreams, everything is wonderful. Unfortunately that is not the reality of life. In truth, life can be a bitch and then you die. Hopefully, the 00z run of the EPS gives D.C. 12 inches of snow on the 5th. Have a good night and as always, I appreciate your opinion.

Please be realistic, your insinuation demeans your normal demeanor.

Oh sure. I often look at the 500 mb height anomaly, 500 mb windspeed, Surface temp., 850 mb. temp, 850 mb. run to run change, mslp precip. 6n hr., prob. mslp - 1005hpa. among others depending on availability. To make a long story short, the 12z Euro package was not excited today through Jan. 5 regarding any significant wintry threat. Tomorrow, it might explode!

We're looking at what the model or ensemble says at a given point in time. We are not fantasizing about what some people dream of. Sure, we have good chances in early January. Be patient, wait until tomorrow, the model of your choice may look better. Don't condemn today because it doesn't satisfy your wishes.

Thanks, but Yes, we are looking for different things. My comment said "no significant winter weather". This is all subject to monumental change, but at the point in reference, I don't consider .2 inch of snow to be significant.

I totally agree that it is too early to give up on early January. I am invested in January 3 - 6. The ECM/EPS runs may look much better tomorrow. The joy of this hobby is like the weather in New England. "If you don't like it, wait 10 minutes and it will change".................