stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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I see some merit in your thoughts. Looking beyond 10 days, the GEFS H5 charts find a trough developing along the west coast of California/Oregon. Not Good with a zonal east coast.
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18 z GFS says warmer than normal the next 10 days. Beyond that is fantasy-land.
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His other 50 inches next couple months will make up for it. IAD 43 inches should equate to 50 at PSU Knob.
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Augusta Phil said NADA, foolishness. He left me hanging with the GFS op and the GEFS. When in drought, leave it out is well known with professionals. But, throwing that aside, I cannot find supporting temperatures with any model except the op GFS. That is NONSENSE! We are so starved for snow that we are grasping for straws............................. The 18Z GFS has warmed and reduced snow potential. It is left hanging with no support. I see scattered snow - showers Tue/Wed with any accumulation mostly confined to western highlands above 1800 ft..................................
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According to my records, I received accumulating snow on December 5, 6 times since 2000. 2002 5.2 inches, 2003 6.5 inches, 2005 3.7 inches, 2007 1 inch, 2009 6.0 inches, 2018 1.5 inches. There's something about December 5.
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I won't believe it until Augusta Phil says it. I have an appointment with him at 5:45.
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Severe to Extreme Drought still has the western portion of the tristate area under a firm grip. Earlier model expectations of improvement have failed. Latest USGS analysis of the water table says Augusta/Rockingham is 21.88 feet below April. The 2 inches of rain last week only brought up the water table .38'!!!!
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Thanks PSU, this composite graphic gives great support to my earlier posted preference to a Cincinnati/ Nashville trough axis.
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Agree 120%! I have felt for quite a while that our precipitation deficits can at least partially be blamed on trough axis too far east. IMO our precipitation chances including snow would increase with a trough axis persistently closer to Nashville/Cincinnati instead of D.C.
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Low of 9.1 at 7 am. Record low at Staunton since 1893 was 10 in 1967.
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GEFS hints at a possibility on Dec. 5. Historically, Dec. 5 is a first snow benchmark.
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Respectfully , we are at December 1 and still in a drought pattern in a moderate/strong El Nino. Predictions 6 months ago from experts and long range models expected better. "What" can be answered by when this will change. I'm not being disrespectful, but, I would enjoy an answer that is credible.
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27 at 5 pm and headed toward 5 GEM, 18 GFS and 20 ECM............
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Its better to be be pissed off than to be pissed on.......................... Rejoice!!!
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Can anyone imagine someone who believes it's not cold enough to snow?????? Our precipitation patterns have changed whereby we are mostly cold and dry or warmer with sprinkles with fleeting troughs racing by to our northwest. If the future includes a pattern with generous precipitation from the south or southwest, we may get lucky, otherwise.....
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No rain yesterday west of the Blue Ridge.
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I thought we all learned yesterday that the Euro Control is rubbish, not worthy of being posted on this site.
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Perhaps you're listening to the wrong people?? It is not too warm if we get the right stormtrack and surface features co-operate. Strong high over Lake Ontario and deepening low over Wilmington tracking to Norfolk and Ocean City. Brooklynwx99 gave you some wise advice.
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The GEFS is close to the ECM Control for the next 15 days: Zonal flow with weak lift makes the difference.
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Welcome back Bob!! I have missed you.............
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I have never been a big fan of the 15 day EURO but it was posted here a few days ago amind a big splash so I figured I would post it. The more I read your thoughts, the more I think we could be friends!! Don't take anything you perceive as an insult seriously. You're question, "is this a serious post" prompted a reply. I gave the reply and we are fine.
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I have the wonderful conclusions of a well seasoned mind based on 50 years of common sense observations. It is saddenly obvious that increasing numbers of our society are delusionally captive to nonsense from people who are loons.
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You are obviously a neophyte. Since you profess to be an expert, challenge the ECMWF . What are your QP predictions for the next 15 days??? I don't want a bunch of crap. I want detailed QP for the entire region for the next 15 days! Come on , give it to me. You can't' , so chill out. Ideally, reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site. Unreasonable crap needs to die. More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.
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The latest from the Euro for the next 15 days does not look good:
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Believe me that is a concern but last week was a good first step to climb out of that hole. 2" down and 8" excess to go for euphoria!
