stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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The AI model is out on a limb because the others maintain an omega block. 12z will be interesting. With the block, ECM gives southwest zones .90, GEM .50", GFS .12" (deadstop at Roanoke will change)
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The Omega Block no longer exists on the 6Z AI............. That's why Helene tracks to Hatteras instead of Cincinnati.....................
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Western areas in the 81 corridor should have a wet week. East of 95 closer to the coast not so much.
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Nearly equal at .79"
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The trough amplified this afternoon, therefore the heading of 120 shifted to 190, forcing activity west of my location. .01" here and 1.05" 15 miles southwest.
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I was clear this morning. It was pea soup yesterday morning til about 11. If yesterday had been August 15, that would have been a nice snowstorm in January.
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The latest HRRR gives me 1.46" rain later today and D.C.- 0.................... NONSENSE!
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The more you pay attention to the models, the more you realize that they all often stink.
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3.05"...................... A few locations within 15 miles report over 6.00 inches!! Others, less than an inch.........
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1.00" in the bucket at 12:15.
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The batting average on this range will be 1000
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.27" in the bucket at 8 am. My 8 model blend thru Friday has increased from 1.28" to 1.50".
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Will: I would suggest that you look at the NAM 3 k This is likely closer to reality.
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Its not all that complicated. The blocking ridge to our north is simply too strong for Eight to move north into Virginia. N.C. gets the lions share of the rain. Southwestern locations in my backyard should do better than D.C.. My 8 model blend has increased from 1.23" at 6 am to 1.28" at 2 pm.
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I have been interested in watching the AI with curiosity about possible future superiority compared to physics based models. A comparison of the last 4 runs is not impressive.
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The AI caved to the GFS and about an inch of rain.......................... The war between a strong ridge to the northeast and tropical/hybrid low pressure shifting northwest from Cape Fear will have the final word. Of interest, the ICON has jumped from .25" for Augusta to around 4.00".
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The most important part of your interpretation is that "the ridging to the north is likely to prevent an escape route". This can be very important for rain producing systems or snow producing systems in winter. Historically, when the right combo. occurs with blocking to the north, look out.
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12Z EURO comes out it drought trance and gives me 5.00 inches next week compared to .05" from 06Z
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The Euro AI now completely misses us to the east next week. The 18z GFS totally disagrees......................... A nice test..................................
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Rain advancing north into Virginia by late Monday from likely tropical development in South Carolina coastal area.
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I get your drift! I occasionally post unusual model thoughts summer and winter, but my confidence level is always very low beyond 7 days because the next run usually corrects.
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Bring it on!!!
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36.1 at 7 am. A new record, the old record was 37 in 1988. No Frost..........................
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I think most of us will be OK except for some light scattered frost in low lying areas. I'm 49.3 at 9:45 which gives comfort. If I was under 45 I would have greater concern. I looked around Highland and the coldest is Vanderpool at 42, Monterey is 47. We'll know in about 8 hrs..
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FROST ADVISORY !!!!!!! After 37.0 at 7 am, even colder tonight with residents warned of possible frost!!!!!!!!!!! https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ025&warncounty=VAC015&firewxzone=VAZ025&local_place1=4 Miles SSE Churchville VA&product1=Frost+Advisory&lat=38.1779&lon=-79.1425
