stormy

12z models give my area .05" to 1.00" on Friday with a suicide demarcation.

I have received .27" rain the first 10 days of July. This is the driest first 10 days in more than 45 years!! Number two was July of 1998 when I received .62".

Those were my expressed fears from last weekend. My 3 model blend has collapsed from 1.50" to .37" during the past 24 hours.

Interesting question! The 15 90+ days in 1934 had an average low of 66. The 13 90+ days in 1936 had an average low of 63. The average low for June 20 is 60.

I have recorded 9 days since June 1 of 90 or above. The 1930's were hotter as 1934 had witnessed 15 days of 90 or above on July 9 and 1936 had witnessed 13 days of 90 or above at Staunton by July 9.

The 12z AIFS is better than the deterministic Euro, giving our area an inch of rain by late Friday.

There seems to be a slot of subsidence on the eastern flank of Beryl's remnants. The ICON and GFS keep this sinking air back over Charleston, W.Va. giving Virginia a beneficial rain from a slug of Atlantic moisture. I'm really concerned about the 12z EURO desire to put western Va. in this dry slot. I'm anxiously awaiting the 12z AIFS.

High of 91. 38% humidity more like Arizona makes the drought worse but the RF more tolerable.

83/68

Primary would be a robust tropical system doing the job, tracking Wilmington/Crozet/Front Royal. Mobile/Roanoke/Staunton would also work. Beryl possibility Galveston/ Dallas/Nashville/Beckley would bring numerous showers but likely not as much qp as the other two.

93 but not bad because the humidity is so low at 43%

The Euro 12z deterministic now brings Beryls rains to Virginia by 7 - 10. 94/67

The Euro A1FS had one wet run yesterday. Today, it is back to very dry for the next 10 days.

Augusta County is firmly entrenched in Severe Drought.

The Euro A1FS thru 7-15 has been very dry for the past week. It has soared from .70" to 2.75" for my back yard in one run.

The air temperature really has very little to do with water temperature on the OBX in summer. Its all about wind direction. Southwest is cold, southeast is warm.

47.3 this morning!!!! That is 15 degrees below normal.

.05" early this morning. 75/74

88/72 at 5:20

Since last week,the CPC is trending wetter for July with the 6-10, 8-14 and 7-13-26 (wks. 3&4)

The Atlantic ridge strengthens and pushes Chris to LA or TX

GEM shears Beryl out south of Cuba, then brings Chris from the same region northwest and north to threaten the southeast at 240.

Water use restrictions are already announced for some locations in the Mountain/Valley region. https://augustafreepress.com/news/drought-city-of-staunton-asking-residents-businesses-to-reduce-water-use/

52.5 this morning, 83/59 at noon.

For many in rural areas, "life" and agriculture are interwoven. Many in my region are rapidly approaching a profound effect on their lifestyle and the lifestyle of their livestock. Streams and ponds that supply life sustaining water are nearly dry. Pastures that supply food for livestock are brown and grass is in a non growing dormant state. Corn and soy bean crops are already severely stressed. Many in this area have received less than a quarter inch of rain during June. About an hour ago I traveled through an intensive agriculture area about 5 - 10 miles from where I live. There is a huge multi-million dollar dairy operation within this area. They are milking 1500 head of cattle and probably have at least a thousand acres of field corn that will be chopped to provide feed for these cattle next winter. I have never seen corn this severely affected by drought!! It is about knee high, all the blades are severely rolled up, many bottom blades yellowed out! A farmer tells me that if we don't get a decent rain of at least a half inch in the next week this corn will start dying. This operation is on the verge of losing hundreds of thousands of dollars in crops. Irrigation is not an option for this operation. Many others who simply enjoy vegetable gardening as a source of food see their gardens drying up. "Major Water Supply Reservoirs" provide 0% of needed water for most in rural areas.