stormy

Do you really wonder why? Careful consideration of our modern day society will provide the answer.

I had a high of 90 yesterday. I used the GEM for my forecast yesterday morning as it projected a high of 90 when the GFS said 96. The GFS is sometimes wildly inaccurate with heat. A good example is evident this morning with Friday afternoon expectations. With no precip. the 06z GFS is wacko at 18z with regional temperatures compared to the 00z ECMWF which seems reasonable.

Drought is returning quickly for most areas unless we receive widespread significant rain soon. The water table has dropped 4 ft. in 30 days at a USGS test well in northern Augusta. My spring fed stream level has dropped out surprisingly fast in the past two weeks. After 5.39" rain in July my lawn has went dormant August 20.

I had a low of 45 Saturday morning and 49 this morning.

Strasburg declares Drought Emergency: https://www.whsv.com/2023/08/15/strasburg-declares-drought-emergency/

Page County in the northern valley south of Front Royal has applied to Gov. Youngkin for a drought disaster declaration, freeing up federal and state assistance for farmers.

You're lucky that I was paying attention: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/SSTs/

I predict a big spike of Atlantic tropical activity during the next 2 - 5 weeks. The ECMWF surface pressure charts will encourage an active September. Saharan dust will tend to subside.

The SPC has increased wind damage potential to 45% tomorrow.

.37" this afternoon in showers from 2:30 - 3:30.

I am only 86 at 1700. The GFS said 96 at 1700 and the ECM said 95. The GEM is much closer at 89. The GFS and ECM both do a poor job with excessive heat in my area.

A total of 2.32" rain last 24 hours. 3.20" since Thursday.

Another 1.10" of rain last 90 minutes out here in the Valley between Staunton and Waynesboro. Now 1.54" for the day and 2.42" last 2 days. 39 mph southeast wind at 3:42. 71 degrees and light rain at 4:45.

76 degrees at 2:30 after .44" in the last hour from a hard shower. That makes 1.32" in the last 2 days.

I received .88" rain yesterday. .30" in thundershowers 3 - 5 pm and .58" in more thundershowers 10 - midnight. 66 and partly cloudy at 7:30.

The greatest threat tonight and Friday contrary to models seems to be over southwest and west central Virginia.

I have expanded the dataset from 20 to 43 years. 7 El Ninos from 1980 to 1998 again found 4 out of 7 had above normal snowfall with an average anamoly of +1.55. The 3 with below normal snowfall had an anomaly of +1.1. Therefore, during the 43 year period from 1980 - 2023, 8 out of 14 El Ninos had above normal snowfall with an average anomaly of +1.45. The 6 with below normal snowfall had an anomaly of +.85. Exceptions can almost always be found. In this study, the one exception was 1991-92 with only 3.25 inches of snow but an anomaly of + 1.7. What other factor overwhelmed El Nino that winter??

I would prefer the 1024 mb to be into Nassau instead of near Bermuda.

Thanks Chuck! I am happy to see that you have no fear of an east based Nino, especially since PSU says that you "would be right 80%" I have reviewed the last 7 Nino's back to 2003. I notice an interesting 20 year pattern at my recording location. 4 out of 7 have given above normal snowfall with a positive anomaly of +1.35. The 3 winters with below normal snowfall had a weaker positive anomaly of only +.66. The strongest anomaly at +2.50 still gave nearly 2 inches above my 24" average. With a CPC 80% probability of +1.00 or greater and 50% of +1.50 or greater, that bodes well for the coming winter according to the past 20 year pattern. If the CPC is correct with their Enso predictions it would be reasonable to expect a winter of above normal snowfall. That is my prediction with a 90% level of confidence, conditioned on an anomaly that exceeds +1.00. If the anomaly is less than +.70, I predict below normal snowfall. This is my prediction for Augusta County, not D.C..

.80" rainfall last night, 10 - 11.

My goodness, take the time to educate yourself. That is so important in life. You may possibly become a more rounded and happier person. Sciencenews is not garbage: https://www.sciencenews.org/

Your verification is in the link of the 8:29 am post Saturday. I need verification of rationality with your answer to Stormchaserchuck1.

.64" total for the month. .02" today..................... Still surviving on that 4.60" June 20 - 25.

For the record, those two comments were not intended to be related to one another in any way. They were 9,999,999 miles apart. Now, with that out of the way, I do have rain with embedded convective elements only 25 miles away on a heading of 70 degrees at 15 mph.

The 18z 12 NAM is already a bust. On to the 3K.