stormy

Yes, I know it's still early, but it is absolutely amazing how so many truly believed 10 - 20 years ago that Climate Change would be like pouring gasoline on a fire for hurricane frequency and strength. It was so bad that some insurance companies stopped issuing policies. Now, a record breaking season predicted for this year. I look forward to being wrong on November 5 when Sara gives me 10 inches of rain and a flood.

43 degrees early this morning. That's 15 degrees below normal! 5 years ago this morning it was 60 degrees.

My snow-drought has been 7 years. I seriously doubt that this short range aberration could honestly be significantly attributed to Climate Change which should take at least 25 years to establish a trend. Throughout history, short and long range weather patterns appear, disappear and re-appear. I have been predominately dry for the past 4 years. Prior to that, I had 3 wet years. Historically, La Nina winters are low snowfall for Va/Maryland, therefore this winter will likely continue the trend. More on that later.

Latest GFS and ECM say no phasing with the late week system. The inch of rain for the Valley is now less than a tenth as most rain skirts north along the coast.

Another Watch receives .15" model compliance. NOAA is frantically searching for reasonably acceptable credibility...........With???...........................................

I agree.. La Nina is always bad news, but -PDO is even worse. I will be posting some historical La Nina info soon...................... depressing..............

I beat you!! I got .12"

You need to re-visit Christmas 1969. I received 12 inches with a high of 24 and a low of 14.

Flash Flood Watch thru midnight for my backyard............................. A 4 model blend during this time gives me .48".

After a very dry last half of August, the GFS has been insisting for the past 24 hrs. that much of west central Virginia turns wet from August 29 - Sept. 10. Now, the 12z NAM 12 likes 24 - 84 wet.

The 06z GFS gives many of us a soaking from a northeast Gulf system Sept. 4 - 7.

46.5 this morning

43.5 at 7 am

41.7 this morning was 20 degrees below normal.

My goodness!!! The 18 z Nam 3kn has warmed up to 43 degrees tomorrow night!!!!!! For my place..

The Valley hails with .01" over the weekend............ Here comes the drought again. Hey, fall is right around the corner. The NAM 3k gives me 39 degrees Wednesday morning!!!!!!

Latest WPC expected rainfall for the next 7 days from 1800z . Less than a quarter inch for western regions. 50" - .75" for eastern regions.

Sterling says the coming week will feel more like late September!

The latest NAM packages leave the Valley out while drenching D.C.. More of a 2 year pattern.

Every year, we gather in the fall to throw darts at the winter. This is entertaining and somewhat hilarious Other than a trivial distraction, interest is limited. Real Deal analogs are based on historical data............... I will provide some of this before Nov. 1.......

55 this morning

Expecting a low of 54 tonight. Nice

5.64" total. Wintergreen reported 9.08"

I think I have brainstormed the problem with a little help from the SPC. There has been a slight ridge wedging down the Valley from the northeast and discouraging rainfall moving in from the southeast. It is breaking down and should allow significant periods of rain to move in during the next several hrs. I have my fingers and toes crossed!! First real shower gave me .06 during the past 20 minutes.

The outer rainfall perimeter from Debby has been 5 - 10 miles southeast of my location for 3 hours!