stormy

There's always a bright side to adversity! The .02" that I received last Friday night left water standing all over my lawn. Squish! Squish! as I walked across the back lawn. I squatted down and simply used my bar of soap to wash my hands in the standing water. I didn't have hot water, therefore I washed and rinsed for 40 seconds instead of 20 to get rid of any covid-19, then got my dispenser out and applied 70% to finish the job, just in case.

Hey, good morning out there in Alleghany County! You folks have been so lucky during the past 30 days with many locations receiving 125% of normal qp. Compare Alleghany to Augusta where many locations are at less than 50%. It is somewhat silly to have this old thread posted again at this time. No intelligence whatsoever. A topsoil moisture deficit is NOT DROUGHT. If the current precipitation pattern continues for the next 60 days, large portions of Virginia will indeed have slipped into agricultural drought. We are not there yet.

That map only updates about once every two weeks. That is the latest. During the past 7 - 10 days the latitude zone from the bay through D.C. to Winchester has received various amounts of very beneficial rain. Much of central and northern Va. from Richmond, Charlottesville, Lexington, Staunton, Harrisonburg and New Market is very dry. These are several month deficits. Southwest Va. between Roanoke and Bristol is wet.

You speak with a reasonable tone. Thank you for that. As you may notice the date on the short term map is March 21. What some seem to be unaware of or defensive about is that portions of extreme northern Virginia and Maryland received very beneficial rainfall yesterday. Cross Junction in Frederick County reported .50". Others without doubt received significantly more. If you travel south from this area rainfall was meager at best. I received .02". You received 4.30" in March. That is close to what I have received this entire year to date.

I am very happy for you with all that rain, but regional stats. don't lie. Congratulations! But, you have probably ruined the soil in your garden by getting in it when it was far too wet!! I made that mistake about 20 years ago. It took years to get the 'clay brick" soil reconditioned.

I can assure you that a topsoil moisture deficit is developing over much of central and northern Virginia. This has nothing to do with the subsoil clay moisture in your garden. Clay retains moisture long after topsoil is dry. During the first 29 days of March I received 38% of normal rainfall!

The GEM capitulated to the GFS southern track and ots. A continuation of a recent weeks pattern that finds much of Virginia/Maryland now beginning to suffer a soil moisture deficit.

I'll take 11 inches, if we could only get 6 inches into D.C.! The GEM is very close.

HP placement looks good. CAD is good. Surface LP over Smokies is decent . QP looks too rich. It will vanish at 00z.

Do you remember 3-13-93. The Storm Of The Century. The storm that gave Dulles 14 inches and Snowshoe 44 inches.

Yes, that has been one of the big problems this winter. But, being positive, we have 8 more weeks. What we are looking with confidence is two weeks or less. 5 or 7 days from now, unexpected opportunities will likely present and then we will be back in the game. I know that JB is ready to throw in the towel over the MJO and EPO.............. If he does, he is likely making a mistake.

A long wave trough axis over Cincinnati and Nashville can work.

Thanks for sanity................... Simply, better pattern....... If it verifies

20/20 vision. No source of cold air because the atmospherics are terrible. Perhaps a high elevation event.

This is only one run. As Bob pointed out, the pattern is crappy for next weekend. No high over Ogdensburg, only ridging in from NA. The Euro first with 6 inches and now the GFS with 7 inches for the 81 corridor is a step in the right direction.

When I receive 6 inches of snow, that is a decent hit.

That's 20/20. At 240 the 850's are falling as far east as Roanoke, but it seems to favor at least a slightly inland track. A Bay runner?

Richmond is transitioning to rain/mix at 240 as 850's rise rapidly in the 95 corridor. D.C. would probably mix later with this fantasy track at 240. Probably great changes at 00z but if verified as modeled, could be the storm of the winter for many west of the B.R. as 850's and 925's are crashing over W.Va. and southwest Va. as cold air wraps in.

The good news is that I predict that February will be the first month since August that my area receives normal to above normal precipitation. We will hopefully begin a recovery process from the hydrological drought that will take months of above normal precipitation to completely alleviate. The closest USGS test well to me is about 18 ft. below normal and continuing a steady decline.

Since September 1, I have received 7.85 of the 17.85 inches predicted by the GFS 384 hr. precip. charts.

You are exactly right and I am exactly right. "It will end at some point". My conclusion is that it will end soon after being dry for 5 months. My definition of soon? 1 week - 3 months.

Cobalt! You nearly caused a stroke with that shot!! Actually, that is a shot of your back yard after you have watered heavily in May and June and your local governance has implemented mandatory water use restrictions in July.......... It dries up and cracks open. No fear of prosecution! It will rain in June and July. That is my fearless forecast!

You are correct, a dry pattern is often followed by a wet pattern. I must believe that the probability of a dry spring and summer is reduced because of how long most of us have been dry. Many folks who are in a moderate drought as I speak don't have a clue because people don't notice a drought during the winter as they would during the green season.

The Rockingham County Board of Supervisors were addressed by their senior extension agent yesterday. They were told to expect a dangerous drought situation this spring unless they receive at least 8 inches of rain by the end of March or 12 inches by the end of April. His terminology to describe the current situation: It is becoming critical. Private wells are beginning to fail. People are asked to not wash vehicles from private wells and conserve water anyway possible.

I am going to be gentle. You comment guarantees my premise. "We haven't had a single event this winter that has dropped even half of that precip." Do you understand that is the problem?? You can hash or dice potentials any which way, but the fact is that significant systems are unlikely to affect our region until this pattern breaks. How many times have we looked 8- 12 days into the future this winter at a potential that really looked good, only to have it fall apart as we got closer. Please, understand I am not criticizing you. I am only asking you to wake up! if your existence is only guaranteed by cheerleading, that is fine. The pattern can break next week, or next month. We need to watch for signs. But, we need to also understand that the dry pattern is a major force in our snow drought of late.