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stormy

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  1. stormy
    The 18 z GFS is catching up with the ECM Weeklies..................................................................
  2. stormy
    4.6 this morning
  3. stormy
    If the projected pattern repeats for the next week, probability of verification certainly increases.
  4. stormy
    Since I posted the good look on the Euro Weeklies at 9:22 Saturday morning, others have became interested and no experts have pooh-poohed the synoptics. With the new run today, no real changes. Anytime after Feb. 10 - March 10 should bring good times for snow-lovers if verification is realized.
  5. stormy
    15 degrees at 6 pm. Headed to Zero tonight.
  6. stormy
    The stream that flows through my property was higher during this Jan. 96 flood than elderly people could remember ever before.
  7. stormy
    I remember it well. 30 inches of snow followed by 3.20 inches of rain a week later. Almost unbelievable!!!!!!!
  8. stormy
    My friend, the chances of serious flooding during the next 15 days is minimal. Snowpack melt is negligible as less than an inch of qp is in most snowpack. WPC 7 day qpf is 1.0 - 1.5 inches. This timeframe will completely eliminate snowpack. Have no fear of serious flooding unless guidance changes significantly.
  9. stormy
    I'm at 1300 ft. though there are 1550' elevations no more than a mile away. I'm looking at 3000 ft. elevations in the Blue Ridge about 4 miles to my east.
  10. stormy
    March has been a big winter month in my region going back to 1960. 1962 put the icing on the cake. For anyone suffering amnesia, 1993 reminded.
  11. stormy
    Nothing but noise
  12. stormy
    The GFS is doing its normal run to run disco from Jan. 30 - Feb 5. Regarding a possible late winter pattern, the Euro Weeklies more or less paint a January thaw beginning early week and extending thru Feb 5. Could be mild and wet. A developing plus PNA encourages eastern troughiness and lower heights from Feb. 15 - March 5. If that verifies, late Feb. into March could be quite interesting. Experts, please tell me why this wouldn't work.
  13. stormy
    Only .70" snow in Augusta. The GFS, ECM, GEM and NAM were all wrong 24 hrs. ago about the southward suppression of the snow at nearly 2.00 inches for Augusta. The ICON was the closest to correct model at .90".
  14. stormy
    The Shenandoah is truly God's World! Just don't tell anyone!!!!!!
  15. stormy
    My Augusta 4 model blend with the 12z GEM, 18z GFS, ECM and NAM increases from 1.3" to 1.9". Kuchera increases from 1.7 to 2.4" 18z NAM 12 k spiked from 1.2 to 2.5" and the 3k Nest jumped from 1.1 to 2.8" . NWS says WWA with 1-2, how about 1-3????
  16. stormy
    I did not include the ICON in the blend.
  17. stormy
    Out here in Augusta County my 4 model blend has increased from .5" last night to 1.3" with the 12z runs. 1.7" Kuchera. A definite shift south on the GFS, ECM, GEM, NAM and ICON.
  18. stormy
    One piece of Trivia that some may be interested in. Knoxville, Tenn. received 9.5 inches of snow Tuesday. According to the NWS, their average annual snowfall is 4.6 inches. Doubled that in one storm!!
  19. stormy
    Historically, Nino winters are not wet, wall to wall. We have been wet for 60 days. This is likely a time-out. I predict a wild and woolly period from Feb 1 - March 25. This would mimic 1958 which psu refers to. Mid Feb. thru Mid March of 1958 was historically brutal, breaking many snowfall records across Virginia/Maryland. We may do it again....
  20. stormy
    What more could anyone say. My blend has dropped from 2.0 to .5 in 24 hrs.. Here comes the drought!
  21. stormy
    My 4 model blend for Augusta dropped from 2.0 to 1.4 overnight.
  22. stormy
    Overnight low of +3 at 12:30. 8 at 7:30 with an 11 mph wind.
  23. stormy
    My 4 model blend is up to 2.00" for late Thursday night/Friday for Augusta County.
  24. stormy
    Be careful
  25. stormy
    Total of 4.25". I'm happy because my prediction in my newsletter Monday morning was 3 - 6". The models did quite well 30 hrs. pre-event at 9 pm Sunday, ranging from 3.0" ECM, 4.0" GFS to 4.7 GEM The winner Monday 6 am was the GFS at 4.2 10:1.
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