stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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Lets beef it up a little! 6 inches at my place!!!
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L.p. is about 100 miles east of the benchmark, but the general synoptic is workable with the banana h.p. to the north. 7.5 inches at my location is much more realistic that 4 inches with L.p. over Morgantown.
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2.25 inches of snow at NewFound Gap North Carolina:
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- 20
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This is a perfect illustration that no person on the face of the earth can accurately predict more than 24 hours in advance when it will snow or not snow. Not psu, not Cape, no person. Evolving surface features can sometimes foil even the most sophisticated analysis. Don't be fooled by anything otherwise. The Sunday/Monday snow potential on the ECMWF will likely die. This January 3, 2022 potential did not die.
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I received 8 inches and had 3' drifts.
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GEFS definitely looking better on the 20th than a couple days ago. A reversal of the h5 pattern has possibilities.
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250 at the state line in Highland at 4332 ft. had about an inch of snow last night. The highway is covered with snow.
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This is la-la land. Reduce this by 90% and you will be close. Where does this crap come from???
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You are correct, the STJ is threatening to become active late next week on the GFS. Pre Christmas snow??
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A super active STG is prayed for in Jan - Mar. 1966 was bland on Jan. 10, but from Jan 20 thru Feb. we had historical snow.
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The first time I experienced this was way back in the 70"s, it was unbelievable, sun on the east side but a dark roll of clouds on top of the mountain. When we came out on the west side, it was pouring snow!
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The Allegheny tunnel on the Pa. Turnpike often witnesses sun on the east side and snow falling on the west side. Amazing.........................
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I pray that you are correct.
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It has not!!!!! I have no patience with simpletons who give up on aspirations so easily. Dear God!!!! What is our society coming to ???
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1.13" since Friday. GFS, ECM ,GEM,and ensembles as well as the NBM were all very dry or all wet on Thursday afternoon. They only expected around a blended total of .20" in Augusta.
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12-21 would be perfect!!!!! 1 day after my GEFS prediction. Thanks Allan!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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The system headed our way from Alabama has model doubled in rainfall potential since yesterday.
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This is what I was talking about last night. That trough tries to come east but backs up as hts. build over the east. Makes for benign conditions 8 - 20.
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I see some merit in your thoughts. Looking beyond 10 days, the GEFS H5 charts find a trough developing along the west coast of California/Oregon. Not Good with a zonal east coast.
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18 z GFS says warmer than normal the next 10 days. Beyond that is fantasy-land.
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His other 50 inches next couple months will make up for it. IAD 43 inches should equate to 50 at PSU Knob.
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Augusta Phil said NADA, foolishness. He left me hanging with the GFS op and the GEFS. When in drought, leave it out is well known with professionals. But, throwing that aside, I cannot find supporting temperatures with any model except the op GFS. That is NONSENSE! We are so starved for snow that we are grasping for straws............................. The 18Z GFS has warmed and reduced snow potential. It is left hanging with no support. I see scattered snow - showers Tue/Wed with any accumulation mostly confined to western highlands above 1800 ft..................................
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According to my records, I received accumulating snow on December 5, 6 times since 2000. 2002 5.2 inches, 2003 6.5 inches, 2005 3.7 inches, 2007 1 inch, 2009 6.0 inches, 2018 1.5 inches. There's something about December 5.
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I won't believe it until Augusta Phil says it. I have an appointment with him at 5:45.
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Severe to Extreme Drought still has the western portion of the tristate area under a firm grip. Earlier model expectations of improvement have failed. Latest USGS analysis of the water table says Augusta/Rockingham is 21.88 feet below April. The 2 inches of rain last week only brought up the water table .38'!!!!
