stormy

Severe drought expanded in the Valley last Thursday:

46 degrees and clear at 7:30

This is the continuation of a very wet pattern for the past 3 to 4 months when N.E. Pa, S.E. New York and southern New England have had 150 - 300% of normal rainfall.

Latest NBM a little more conservative:

The 12z run has more punch than the 06z.

This is not unusual after a tropical system. The GFS believes a cold front associated with a temporary pattern shift in about a week will bring some moisture back into the picture. September/October often get dry without tropical contribution.

45 degrees and clear this morning. The first sun in about 6 days!!

I am heartened to see comments about the "Woke" Wa. Po. and CWG. I was a well known contributor to CWG 10 years ago. Jason knew me very well by my username "Augusta Jim". We had occasional exchanges.. I even won a CWG sweatshirt by being the only one to identify a pattern by a synoptic map............................... That's all history as I grew weary of the daily nonsense with AGW and the afternoon loon with Wa.Po. oversight. Steve Scolnick and I used to lock horns nearly every afternoon. What a thrill!

A classic example of up-slope enhancement was at Wintergreen which reported 8.35"............... That puts my 2.10" to shame.

The heaviest of the rain will pass south and southeast of D.C., but rejoice!!!! This has been a wonderful interlude during the middle of a drought.

Winter is approaching.

Orphilia has been unusual because it has been a hybrid system. Sub tropical evolved to tropical. Sub tropical systems can often have a widespread wind-field more removed from the center compared to a pure tropical system. Associated rainfall can also be farther removed from the center of a sub tropical system than a pure tropical system. Both of these sub tropical characteristics have been quite obvious with Orphilia.

My highest gust so far was 33 mph at 4:45.

.43" in the Valley. 1.41" up-slope enhanced at Wintergreen.

Hopefully that is correct! It will take nearly 10 inches over 2-3 weeks to bring us out of the Drought. Ophelia will not do the job.

Out on the end of The Atlantic City Pier in Morehead City, Ophelia will be a hurricane when she comes ashore later tonight, regardless of what the NHC says.............

The latest NHC track is 20 - 30 miles west of the bay up to Baltimore. The latest NBM D.C rainfall total is 2.62 inches.

I noticed at 7 am that the 00z ECMWF 10M windfield brought the core of circulation over D.C. by 12z Sunday. The NHC at 11 am has now adjusted the track westward to just east of D.C. by Sunday morning.

I could be vain and say I'm batting 1000............. But honesty is one of my highest attributes! I thought the 18z12 NAM would shift east from Richmond toward consensus up the bay and the NHC track. H--- it shifted west to Lynchburg!! But, I believed the 12z to be too juicy....... I dropped from 4.12" to 3.02"............. Winning streak continues! I'll practice some more before the snow flies.

I nailed the huge shift in the ECMWF yesterday with a lucky bet. I feel lucky again today. I therefore predict the incoming 18z NAM12 will dry somewhat for western areas.

I received 5.65" from Isabel on Sept. 18, 2003. Upper Sherando Lake received 20.2"!!

As I predicted yesterday evening, the 00z ECM caved and moved west. Cape pointed out yesterday evening that Mt. Holly was using the NBM because of inconsistencies with the globals. The NBM is a blend of more than 40 models that averages out an outlier like yesterdays ECM. I produce an abbreviated NBM for my newsletter quite often by blending 4 - 7 models. My 4 model blend at 6pm yesterday was .70" for my location. The NWS NBM was at .75". Remember, the ECM was 0. This morning, my 4 model blend is 1.06. The NWS NBM is .76" for me and 1.85" for D.C.. Some models say that a sharp cutoff can occur on the western side. (the Valley)

The NBM is very close to the GFS and GEM. The problem is with the Euro which has been all over the world. I predict that it will come back west with the 00z run. During recent years the ECMWF has often been known as the King. Those days are over, unless. Will the Euro pull a monstrous coup with the off the coast drought enhancer???

Make that the 00 and 12z

The WPC is trashing the 06 and 12 ECMWF with this 1:37 3 day