stormy

BWI 19.1" DCA 14.3" IAD 25.8" RIC 8.2"

Here's the map:

Latest CPC analysis says 3.4 is now 1.80 with the DYN AVG now 2.0 thru Jan.

We need that deep trough well to the west with ridging over Nevada and troughing over the east with the axis over Nashville.

The CPC finally hints at more moisture getting into our drought stricken area as we approach Thanksgiving.

I'm just being proactive for what is coming soon. That's a better pastime than dwelling on all the unreasonable people in the D.C. area.

1 - 3 inches of snow tomorrow in northwest Highland County above 3500 ft...... 4332 ft. Rt. 250 at the state line is a great candidate. Wax those ski's!!

I see the pattern perfectly. That's why we sometimes have above normal snowfall with below normal qp. As you say, "numerous storms sliding by to our south". If we are brushed with a southern slider we get possibly significant snow but relative qp is rather light. That's the beauty of Nino. We are on the cold north side of southern sliders therefore we are much more likely to see snow instead of mixed slop from OV riders. With a pure Nino, we are almost always on the NW side of the mean storm track. Thanks for your input, but I can assure you that I "see the pattern".

With increasing speculation about precipitation this Nino winter, I have researched precipitation patterns with the 14 Nino's since 1980 at my location in Augusta County. What I found has completely changed my attitude about winter precipitation with Nino's. Please understand, I am talking about liquid qp, not snow. During the past month I have referred to a failed Nino if we don't evolve to a wet pattern by December 10. This was based on a review of 2 analogs. Everything changed when I detailed all 14 Nino's for 43 years. D.T. referred to a "failed Nino" in his winter comments. My current realization is that a failed Nino is possible at 32 north latitude or Charleston S.C. but a failed Nino is not possible at Staunton Va. or Washington D.C. How is this? Because a normal Nino winter pattern does not exist at our latitude. It is highly variable, therefore cannot fail. I recovered precipitation totals for 14 November - April Nino's since 1980. Only 43% of these years had above normal precipitation from November - April. Our latitude is sandwiched between a dry Ohio Valley and wet south and southeast, but we are certainly not guaranteed a wet winter. Snowfall is variable and can be heavy even during a dry winter. My normal qp from November - April totals 18.84". An example of a dry winter which gave heavy snowfall is 1979-80. 18.03" qp fell with a snow total of 49 inches, double my normal total of 24 inches. Another dry Nino winter that produced above normal snowfall was 15-16, 17.05" qp produced 26 inches of snow. An example of a wet Nino with below normal snowfall is 18-19, 26.60" qp only produced 21 inches of snow. The fabled 09-10 winter gave 25.77" qp with 63 inches of snow. Many Nino's give above normal snowfall to my area but less than half give a wet winter.

Your thoughts are outstanding !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Many others are whistling Dixie!

Thanks for bringing this to my attention! I will research precipitation patterns for the entire winter into the following spring of all other El Nino's since 1980, November - April.

Of course 24 " of snow was only the beginning, March gave 5.40 precip. and April gave 7.57"!

I hope your wrong, but who knows. 24 inches of snow is only 2.5 inches of QP. We need much more than that.

Here we are in the first week of November in a moderate to strong El Nino and the Severe Drought for the I-81 corridor continues to worsen. I have been dry since the end of July. August gave me 1.12 compared to a normal of 3.63, September gave 3.59" compared to a normal of 4.43", October gave .53" compared to a normal of 3.25". Historical comparisons to other El Nino's of this value gives me reason for great concern. Most other El Nino's gave a wet November. 1997 6.46", 2009 6.75"............................ The next 15 days look dry.......................... WE are running out of time for this El Nino to kick in...........

Welcome back with all that dirty stuff. Next week gave me 15 inches in 1968, lets do it again!

19 at 7 am

Thanks Terpeast! I really enjoyed reading your in depth research and predictions. Some are already questioning when the significant precipitation will begin. I use 2009-10 as one analog because of similar total positive values DJF. Precipitation in the 81 corridor was heavy in November and December of 09 after a dry October. October gave me in Augusta County 2.39". November 6.75", December 7.03". My feeling is we should all be in a wet pattern no later than December 10 or we may have a failed El Nino. The MEI is currently quite low. Regarding your in depth predictions. A positive critique is the total snowfall regions. I would have been inclined to follow the eastern foothills of the Blue Ridge with the 10 - 20 inch line from central Virginia northeast to north central Maryland. This would of course place D.C. in the 10 - 20 inch area instead of 20 - 40 inches. I am accepting your prediction of a slightly warmer than normal winter to support my reasoning. BUT, if your thoughts about a KU or multiple SECS bear fruit, you may have it nailed. Good Luck!!

14.3 degrees at 7 am. The GEM is usually superior with radiational cooling for my location. The GFS had predicted a low of 22 and the ECMWF 26. Elevation varies widely in Augusta making a huge difference. A scan around Augusta/Rockingham around 7 am found temperatures ranging from 11 - 24. A modified UHIA also exists in Staunton, Waynesboro and Harrisonburg.

You mentioned Swoope. Do you by any chance work at VDOT?

The GEM gives me a low of 14F at 11z tomorrow. My forecast is closer to 18. At 5:45 Mount Mitchell at 6684 ft. reports 17.4F.

30 at 7am. Spruce Knob reports 14. Canaan Heights, 1.1" snow and 17.

That should park the axis of a trough over Nashville or Crossville. About right.............

You were very lucky! I received .53". 16% of normal.

The GFS has given a wild ride the last 24 hours in about 2 weeks!! From 16 inches of snow to less than an inch of rain, now 7.46 inches of mostly rain on Nov. 11 !!!

2 runs straight at this range is unusual, especially beefing up with number 2. Can 3 be a charm at 6:15??