stormy

Hey Ji ! , I agree, stay tuned

I believe the only comment Ji made yesterday was the 12z 12-11 ECM pushing the storm out to sea with fresh cold air coming in from the northwest while we stay dry. This GEM idea is completely different with the eastern burbs of D.C. getting over 2 inches of rain before enough cold air is pulled down and into the system to transition lingering rain into snow. Today's 12z ECM sniffs but kicks 2.0" rain back to .20" rain before pushing qp to the east as cold air moves in.

GEM brings snow next Tuesday by a coastal that creates its own cold air.

Do you know how long this "raging pacific jet" has been a problem ? Is it more likely to occur today than 20 years ago or 40 years ago ? How about the 1960"s ?

18 z GFS caves to the ECM. I begin to worry everytime this happens. A wet winter is what we need. This is not a step in the right direction.

I thought abought 15 minutes ago. This wind is really cold until I realized its December!!

18 on top of Spruce Knob at 4 pm. We'll see this temp at 6 am. Some snow still on the ground especially northern exposures at 4 and 38 degrees .

12z GFS dumps another 2.0 inches of rain on us a week from today.. Snow? The 540 line is up in Maine.

I usually review statistics on every event, winter and summer. A lot of discussion Saturday and Sunday concerned the preferred model measure of total accumulation. What I believed to be the common sense preferred measure because of marginal borderline surface conditions pre and during the event did not measure up very well in review. I usually relied on the Positive Snow Depth Change. In review, I found it to be consistently too low for both myself and Psu. Of course I realize it may have been correct for "skunked" locations. The 10:1 measure was far more accurate. 24 hours pre-event at 06 Sunday : Stormy 2.0" - Total PSDC - GFS .3" ECMWF 1.0" Stormy 2.0" - 10:1 Ratio - GFS 1.7" ECMWF 2.0" 24 hours pre-event at 06 Sunday : Psu 3.8" - Total PSDC - GFS .3" ECMWF 1.4" Psu 3.8" - 10:1 Ratio - GFS 3.9" ECMWF 2.9"

32 degrees and light snow, guessing 2 inches.

39 with light rain. Snow falling above 2500 ft.. Wintergreen has transitioned with 32 degrees.

I will lose sleep later tonight waiting for your banding!! I remember Jan. 2 of 2022 when I recorded a high of 60 degrees. Next morning I had heavy snow at nearly 2 " per hr at times. 8" of snow in 6 hrs. with drifting to a depth of 3 ft. Yes, it can happen!

The Positive Snow Depth Change on the 18z HRRR will probably be closer to reality or even generous below 2000 ft. 55 degrees and .72" rainfall at 3 pm.

This could be a classic noreaster. Tomorrow is a mess........................

Thanks

Searching for a better short range model than the NAM as suggested by psu. Lets try the NDFD I could buy this.

It would definitely trail the CMC for rationational cooling nightly lows.

The GFS finds the 17 storm with 8 inches for the Central Valley. More of an inland runner with mostly rain east of BR. I don't like the Superior LP..........................

I have been saying for a long time. Don't ignore the GFS.............

I can't find any disagreement with what you say. The 12k dropped 10:1 snowfall from 7" to 2" for my area and dropped total rainfall from 3.15" to 1.63". It amps more toward the coast and shifts precip. footprint which has been a 6 month pattern. Yes, the 3k is still amplified with snow but drops rainfall for me from 2.59" to 1.11". I agree with your thoughts about a short range model with more reliability.

The 18z NAM finally comes to it's senses. It was on steroids..

Sunday night will mostly depend on how far the trough axis lingers behind the front, how long precipitation lingers behind the front and if any wrap around banding occurs. This should be an elevation event even more so than normally expected.

I received 6 inches of the white stuff.

The best conclusion for the Sunday night/ Monday potential is yes, it might happen but is not likely. Most elements would have to fall into place perfectly. 12-16 & 17 would be more likely.

The 18z NAM really amps the system over Virginia. TOO MUCH?? I can believe 6 inches along higher elevations of the Blue Ridge. I cannot believe 4 inches at Richmond with surface temps. of 34 - 36 degrees!! This is likely to be an elevation event for western locations.