stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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Then 18z GFS puts the bullseye over Augusta County:
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Sunday night, strong LP is over S. Carolina dumping rain. No 50/50................ Source of cold air way back over North Dakota............................
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18 z GFS hammers the LP from Myrtle to Norfolk. 2 - 3 inches common.
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I have absolutely no panic. I am simply disappointed that so much of what the best and brightest in the meterological world base their assumptions on is so corrupted. No wonder their wrong more than 50% of the time. We should expect better. Of course, considering the world we live in, it is almost certain.
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CAPE : Please don't believe that I have any personal animosity toward you. I guess that I just have a personal expectation for a model or ensemble to focus on details accurately. When they don't, I don't like.
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Your late....................... I absolutely know this is an ensemble of 30 members . These 30 members need to get their act together. Perhaps the resolution is bland, but this is not good. This thread of people are obsessive with details of 5, 10 and 30 days into the future. How can you rationalize this kind of crap when so many are instructed to only listen to the GEFS and throw out the deterministic GFS. Maybe we should we throw out the GEFS??????
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I'm not looking that "hard" as the parameters will likely be completely different tomorrow. But in reality, the model is arguing against itself by painting snow at +3C.
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Cold air aloft is very marginal at best with the 850 and the 540 line:
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20.5 degrees at 7 am.
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A few take away's before the event. An almost classic storm track with minor variations. We would be measuring snow in feet if we had a source of cold air for the storm to tap into. Where is that 1040 high over southeast Quebec? I'm happy because 24 inches of snow means too much cleanup labor and the 2 inches of rain over 24 hours will be wonderful for the continuing severe drought according to the drought monitor updated this morning.
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The ICON loses interest
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Hey! I'm back in town!! I posted that so quick without reviewing thread activity because I know how much you crave snow. And, I was in a hurry for another appointment. This is a long shot at maybe 20%. The ECM and GEM also bring the spoke of energy down but are more progressive to the coast without surface lp developing. The GFS says, nada, I'm not digging that deep. We''ll see at 6 pm.
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Kudo's
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12z ICON dumps snow Tuesday/Wednesday
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16.8 this morning. 1 - 3 inches of rain looks reasonable for Sunday afternoon thru Monday.
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This statement verifies many statements 50 years ago from observers. "Some of our heavy snow winters were not all that cold". Very cold winters like 76-77 suppress storms.
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The 18z GFS increased my qp from 1.60 to 2.09". I don't agree with the Helter Skelter precip. footprint. CRAZY!!!!!!
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KUDO's
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Congratulations!! You're exactly right! Snowshoe goes from 1 inch to 6 inches. Red Oak Knob in Highland goes from .5 inch to 3 inches. It might be headed your way......
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The big news with the 12z runs is that the Euro is caving to the GFS by making Mondays system an inland runner. The 00z gave Augusta County .25" of rain. The 12z gives us 3.19"!!! For D.C., 00z gave 1.18, 12z gives 2.37". Also more snow back in the western mts.
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Yesterday afternoon both Ji and I expressed suspicion of possible surprises early next week with an east coast storm. This Watch still exists this morning. The GFS,GEM and Euro all see a significant system affecting the SE/MA coastal region during this Sunday - Wednesday timeframe. Heavy rain, snow and wind are all in the mix with run to run hiccups. The op GFS even gives my area 2 inches of snow on Tuesday night but the GEFS keeps any snow in the mts. to my northwest. The latest ECM gives more impact to the area east of I-95 while the GFS suspects more inland impact.
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But, a few things you must consider. A 5 year famine would crucify and explode your food prices. It would crucify every living plant or tree on your property. All for a 40+ winter in D.C.???
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I couldn't care less how much snow we receive this winter. My one reality is that we all need a wet winter considering the drought conditions. A wet winter is my concern, bring on many warm wet systems! It would be a Godsend....................
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Don't shed tears, the CFS is "Crap For Sure", unless it hiccups........ We will be fine...
