stormy

The seasoned meteorologists say that when predicting rain or snow. When in Drought, leave it out. This dry pattern for rain or snow will break at some point. Until then, speculation about rain or snow is a moot point. .50" of rain is not a break in the pattern unless it is followed by much more. Is anyone smart enough to say when it will break?

Central Virginia needs 8 inches of rain to get back to normal. Anyone care to guess??

During the next 15 days, the Pacific should relax enough to pull out support for the SER. Mid and late January is promising.

In the very unlikely probability of verification. The SER would likely push into the OV or be an Apps. runner.

CBS 19 in Charlottesville reported at 6 pm only 1 inch of rainfall since late October and they are saying we need rain badly. This is seriously affecting the water table. A USGS test well in Rockingham County indicates the 250 ft. water table is 1 ft. lower than during the drought last summer!!! This is seriously affecting our subsurface water level for next spring and summer. Prayerfully, it will change to above normal precipitation during the late winter and spring. If not, we are in serious trouble in the spring.

After a very dry November, I have received only .09" of rainfall during the first 21 days of December. Normally, the first 21 days of December would give my location 1.68" of rain and melted snow.

.78" rainfall to date for July. Normal for July 19 would be 2.66" 30% of normal rainfall for July.

Real time radar depiction over southwest Virginia gives the 06z ECM,& HWRF the greatest accuracy. The GFS, GEM and both NAM's are out to lunch.

The westward shift overnight is pure Joy. The HWRF, HMON, NAM 3k and GEM all give my area much needed very beneficial rainfall on Thursday.

Its official. My rainfall total for May is .87". The driest in the last 42 years. The second driest was 1.60" in 1991.

If this pattern doesn't soon change, the Valley may witness the driest May since at least 1979. Only .18" the first 16 days of May.

That 1040 HP just north of Ogdensburg is definitely a "big deal" if the LP tracks through southeast Va..

For my immediate area the Euro has consistently been 5 - 10 degrees too warm for the past week with afternoon highs. The GFS and GEM have been more accurate.

The last 30 days have averaged less than 50% rainfall in the Hagerstown/Martinsburg area and Dale City/Fredericksburg region. The next 10 days looks like well below normal rainfall on the 00z Euro. My earlier short-term deficits have shifted northeast.

Northern Virginia is quite dry.

Portions of northern Virginia, Maryland and southeastern Pa. are getting very dry . The next 10 days are marginal.

Spruce Knob,W.Va. at 4862 ft. reported 15F at 6 am................ Compares quite well to 14.9F at 850mb. at Dulles.

29 out in the Valley at 6 am. 41 at 10:15. .06" rainfall yesterday. Canaan Heights reports 2.8" snowfall last night. 30 miles to my west, 1 " snow at 4300 ft..

47 mph wind gust at 2:33. 1.89" rainfall. Looking around Augusta, generally 1 - 2 inches rainfall.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Today, we eclipsed the 18-19 flu deaths of 61,200.

I received a total of .61". Confirmed by two gauges. Very welcome rainfall.

Those drought maps are often 2 or 3 weeks outdated. The short-long term map yesterday from NOAA was dated April 11. This map indicated large portions of northern Virginia and Maryland in a short-term drought condition. The latest map dated April 18 indicates all of this area back into a normal condition after beneficial rains. I never depend on any government operation to be prompt about anything. Simply, too much bureaucracy. We are all normal at this time. I have enjoyed chatting with you! I have received .42" rainfall today at 7 pm.

Hello up north. I don't know who has a theory of a "region wide drought"? Can you enlighten me? What is his or her handle? During late March after a very dry month in Augusta I posted an advisory of a growing rainfall deficit in the central valley. I also advised that this is NOT DROUGHT, but we would be in agricultural drought if the pattern continued another 60 days. Fortunately, April has been generous. The first 22 days gave my recording station 2.58". Normal for the first 22 days of April would be 2.42".

LOL That Euro 4" from 12z yesterday dropped to 2" at 00z. Cancel the Flood Watches. Of course, it is somewhat delusional to pay serious attention to a 10 day qpf from any model.