stormy

The SER has been a pest all winter. This is not always but a frequent reality of La Nina. NOAA is projecting a 1.0 + El Nino for next year. I am interested in your thoughts for next winter based on a 1.0 + El Nino.

You create an interesting consideration for me and I appreciate your thoughts! You are obviously thrilled with your battery powered lawnmower. I made the transition to battery powered drills, screwdrivers in small tools years ago and I love them. I recently had a friend encourage me to think about a battery powered chainsaw. He says that a commercial grade heavy duty saw does an amazing job.

I would be very happy if life brought me a lot of this for the next few months

I recorded VERY COLD 7 am at 12.1 on my Davis Vantage VUE and 13.1 on my Taylor. A lot of peach fruit buds frozen.............. Probably 80% at least.

The forecast discussion from Sterling this morning indicated that most of our region is 3 - 4 inches below normal precipitation ytd. I have a live stream running through a portion of my property. Usually, high water levels from heavy rains flush out siltation prone channels at least once a year. It has been 3 years since heavy rains produced water levels high enough to flush these channels. We get light to moderate rains occasionally but not heavy enough to produce run-off.

Keep the faith my good friend. You will be fine over the next several years. These short term cycles have repeatedly occurred over the past 100 years.

sleet would be ok. I'm hard up after only 1.25" of snow the entire winter. At least sleet is frozen!! Of course, I did receive 9" of snow on April 7,1971 and 7 inches on April 7, 1990. I would be more confident with a Miller A and 1040 hp over Ontario.

10.5 inches would make my winter out here in the valley.

I absolutely don't dispute short term trends. We have those many times over the past 20, 50 or 100 years. The inconvenient truth is that we don't have long term trends because as I said earlier, they do not exist. I deal in facts, not innuendo. Yes, D.C. has had a general 7 year period of below the normal snowfall of 13.8", though last year was close at 13.2". 18-19 was a 1 year blip upward above normal at 16 .9". Technically and factually, 6 of the last 7 years have been below normal. Previously, 2013 - 2016 was a 3 year period of above normal snowfall, 32.0", 18.3" and 22.2". 1926 - 1932 was a general 6 year period of below normal snowfall, though as in this recent short term trend it had 1 above normal year, 1929-30 at 18.1". 26-27-4.3", 27-28 11.1", 28-29 7.5", 30-31 2.5", 31-32 5.0". These short term trends continue as they have for a long time. If this continues for another 3 winters it will be safe to say that the trend is a very unusual long term anomaly. I do not personally attack others no matter how much I may disagree. This should be an honest and free forum as long as excessive profanity or verbal attacks are not directed toward others.

You are exactly right! We just went through a drought winter for snowfall but in all likelihood it will be better next year. To repeatedly make proclamations about how warm it is and insinuate we may never return to the way it used to be is demoralizing to many and certainly not productive. The chart that I posted a little while ago was not intended for illustrating long-term trends. Why would I be so foolish because long-term trends DO NOT EXIST. If we are consistently below normal for the next 50 years, then talk to me about long-term trends. That chart was simply to illustrate up and down cycles in snowfall. About this chart, PSU said " Its fine for showing up and down cycles of snowfall" Thank you

An interesting chart showing D.C. winter snowfall anomalies back to 1949. This reveals that the most consistent below normal stretch of winters occurred in the early to mid 1950's and again around 1990.

How snow is measured has a tremendous impact on totals. I notice this often in my area when looking at totals and one person is 3 inches above others a mile away. This is the guy who walks out in the middle of an unmanicured lawn with 6 inches snowboard snow and pushes a yardstick down until he reaches hard ground and is thrilled with his 9 inches of snow!

This perfectly illustrates the huge departure from normal in the mountains of W.Va. Percentages would have been more user friendly but this gets the job done. Thanks for posting this!

I had 19.25" for 20-21. Not bad. Interesting variables between D.C. and the Valley. D.C. / Baltimore have often received much more summer rain in recent years than the Valley, yet much less snow in winter.

You and I were both wrong about the winter. Now, your wrong again about elevation. Canaan Heights, W.Va. at 3715 ft. elevation, with an average annual 160 inches of snow had the lowest snowfall this winter in the last 20 years with only 61 inches. Yes, I know that 38% would give D.C. 5 inches of snow but it is safe to say that Canaan Heights also suffered a snow drought this winter. Please don't be more pessimistic next winter. That would be a huge negative for so many, including yourself.

My greatest snow drought in the last 44 years before this year was 31 years ago back in 91-92 when I received 3.05". That was a + 1.7 El Nino winter. The following winter of 92-93 I skyrocketed from 21 inches below the normal of 24 inches to 11 inches above normal at 35 inches!! The snowy winter of 92-93 was a +0.1 neutral winter. Be careful what you pray for.

GFS 100 miles south of the benchmark. Plenty of time to adjust. I had feared south and east suppression, it verifies. Some had feared a runner which is 60 days ago.

Preponderance of evidence at 180 hrs. suggests a high probability of a Miller A storm on the east coast early to mid next week. Credible details are impossible at this range. Confidence should be much better by Saturday. Regarding the GFS snow maps. If the storm brunt reaches north and west to our latitude, heavy snow would be possible from the Blue Ridge westward through the 81 Corridor into the Potomac Highlands. Significant accumulations (more than 3 inches) would be unlikely for the 95 low lands.

18 inches in my back yard on the 22'nd by the 18z GFS. WOW!!!!!! What a hoot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For you. I'll take the 6 inches of white-stuff.

A few miles north of Waynesboro, 12:38- moderate snow, 30.8 F., one half inch

Hello Neighbor! This should be an elevation event. I'm telling my many fans to expect less than 2 inches below 2000 ft and 2 - 4 inches from 2000 - 4000 ft. elevation. Its plenty cold for snow at 850mb at -5 C. Surface temperatures are very marginal for daytime accumulation in mid March at 32 - 35F. unless rates are heavy. Southward suppression of qp could be an issue.

I agree with you 100% ................. Nothing more need be said. Thanks for your wisdom!

That would be wild for late March with the plummeting temperatures following! Nice to look at on paper.