stormy

This was my post late yesterday after being surprised by the 18z GFS op for a few minutes. I then realized with these words that the 18z was likely trash that would not stand the test of time. I didn't call it trash at the time for obvious reasons considering the euphoria. 240+ hours is almost always fantasy land for the GFS op. The EPS still looks fine for Feb. 12 - March 12.

Are we seeing something here that should not be happening??

That's the only way to go!!!!!

Mid January to mid March has always been the sweetspot back to 1958. I remember 1958 well because it was the first time anyone could remember Rt. 11 (The Valley Pike) being closed by drifting snow north of Harrisonburg. This was before I-81 had ever been heard of, 11 was the main north/south thoroughfare. Will we revisit 1958 this year ?

The update this morning puts the ground water in better shape than in a long, long time though still abnormally dry over Augusta County.

Most of my snow has melted except drifts and pushed up mounds. 54 degrees and .02" rain last night.

The snowpack in those mountains around you kept you in the refrigerator.

Heaven forbid!! On this day in 1967 it was 72 degrees at Staunton! The 06z GFS op. gives Boone N.C. 26 inches of snow during early Feb...... The EPS will save us!

Late Sunday and Sunday night could be interesting according to the 18z GFS. Some of the blue has been pushed south and southwest.

When I began looking at his thread early last Saturday morning, the "experts" were arguing about Pacific Jet Extensions. Somewhat bored with that crap I began perusing the models and ensembles. I discovered a very enticing look on the Euro Ensembles for mid February into March. Somewhat surprised that nobody was talking about it I posted a comment at 9:22 am. The rest is history. That enticing look has persisted and now we are up to March 10.

Thanks for your input. The 90+ days 75 years ago are 2 - 1 more than recent years. Pre 1958 which is the 50% benchmark there were 17 90 degree + days. Post 1958 there were 7 90+ days on August 1.

Thanks!! This is quite interesting, no trend since 1893. The luck of the draw with various winter patterns! My records at Staunton go back to 1893. The Staunton records clearly reveal that summers were hotter 100 years ago. More 90+ days pre 1958 than post 1958. I closely tracked this during last summer for my newsletter.

We seem to be experiencing a dose of reality this morning as we talk about winter weather patterns. Some seem to remember the 60's as the coldest/snowiest decade in the last 100 years and lament recent years as if we now live in a semi tropical climate. I lived through the 60's, I have good memories and good records. Sure, the 60's had many cold patterns during winter and several heavy snowfall winters. I remember ice skating on area rivers and snow sledding when it seemed snow was always on the ground. Honestly, my recall of the 60's focuses on the very cold snowy times. But guess what, as Terpeast said, we always seem to remember the cold snowy times and forget about the other warm, rainy times. March 5 - 7 in 1962, the Shenandoah Valley received 24 - 36 inches of snow during the Great Ash Wednesday Storm............................ Guess what the month preceding that storm was like? Feb. 4 of 62 at Staunton was very mild at 64 degrees, Feb. 5 of 62 saw 70 degrees, Feb. 6 very mild with 66 degrees, Feb 23 of 62 nice at 66 degrees, Feb. 28 had 68 degrees. February of 1962 gave Staunton 2.39" of rain and no snow. March 1 of 1962 found folks saying spring is here at 70 degrees !!!! 5 - 6 days later we received 2 - 3 feet of snow!!! March 9-10 produced another 5 inches of snow.

The 18 z GFS is catching up with the ECM Weeklies..................................................................

4.6 this morning

If the projected pattern repeats for the next week, probability of verification certainly increases.

Since I posted the good look on the Euro Weeklies at 9:22 Saturday morning, others have became interested and no experts have pooh-poohed the synoptics. With the new run today, no real changes. Anytime after Feb. 10 - March 10 should bring good times for snow-lovers if verification is realized.

15 degrees at 6 pm. Headed to Zero tonight.

The stream that flows through my property was higher during this Jan. 96 flood than elderly people could remember ever before.

I remember it well. 30 inches of snow followed by 3.20 inches of rain a week later. Almost unbelievable!!!!!!!

My friend, the chances of serious flooding during the next 15 days is minimal. Snowpack melt is negligible as less than an inch of qp is in most snowpack. WPC 7 day qpf is 1.0 - 1.5 inches. This timeframe will completely eliminate snowpack. Have no fear of serious flooding unless guidance changes significantly.

I'm at 1300 ft. though there are 1550' elevations no more than a mile away. I'm looking at 3000 ft. elevations in the Blue Ridge about 4 miles to my east.

March has been a big winter month in my region going back to 1960. 1962 put the icing on the cake. For anyone suffering amnesia, 1993 reminded.

Nothing but noise

The GFS is doing its normal run to run disco from Jan. 30 - Feb 5. Regarding a possible late winter pattern, the Euro Weeklies more or less paint a January thaw beginning early week and extending thru Feb 5. Could be mild and wet. A developing plus PNA encourages eastern troughiness and lower heights from Feb. 15 - March 5. If that verifies, late Feb. into March could be quite interesting. Experts, please tell me why this wouldn't work.