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stormy

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  1. stormy
    I'm only 15 miles from you. I have about 5 - 6 inches of snow/ice concrete on the ground from earlier storms. I want 1.5 inches of rain with temperatures in the 50's to get rid of some of this stuff. I donate any and all ice to D.C. folks.
  2. stormy
    I agree, unless the 12z GFS tomorrow sustains, what we are looking at now is NONSENSE.
  3. stormy
    The one harsh reality that many seem to ignore is that an ice storm creates suffering and misery for millions. The terrible results takes years to recover from. Minor ice is a nuisance except for the many who suffer inconvenience. Major ice cripples the communities affected.
  4. stormy
    I too have been very impressed with the GFS this winter. This is one time I hope it is high on glue or just goofy! 18z will be telling. Will it sober up or continue leading the way again?
  5. stormy
    The GFS is very fast in pushing the boundary south with no real support from the ECM, GEM or ICON. I have very low confidence in that solution or is that wishful wish casting after nearly $5000 tree damage from the severe icestorm of November 15, 2018.
  6. stormy
    The 06 GFS and 00 GEM is hinting at this scenario while the ECM makes a clean sweep.
  7. stormy
    The euro says possible CAD setup past 150 hrs.
  8. stormy
    The GFS is caving to the ECM with this run
  9. stormy
    The GEM is similar to the GFS only a few hours later. They are the new tag team................
  10. stormy
    2 consecutive similar runs for the GFS at this lead time is impressive
  11. stormy
    I went from 1.6 at 00 to 2.3 at 12z ECM. Mostly vortex instability possibly drawing a little off coastal qp and frontal precip. for western folks imo.
  12. stormy
    We are basically in a dry pattern regarding winter storms. You can hash it it or dash anyway you wish, but that is a fact. The very dry progressive pattern northwest to southeast kicks potential storms off the east coast. The vortex over eastern Canada needs to relax. This will change in February, but will we still have enough cold air? Friday/Saturday? Possible, but not likely.
  13. stormy
    The trend is your friend. The 12z Euro snow map gives D.C. 2.5 inches vs .8" at 00z . The eastern shore of Maryland/ Delaware receives 6 inches vs. 2.5 at 00z. I receive 1.3 vs. 1.1 at OOz As I suggested Saturday, if it is still there tomorrow, the party is on.
  14. stormy
    Before the pattern flip, this might be possible. Nice to see the King GFS showing this. Lets look at this closer about Tuesday if it survives.
  15. stormy
    Everybody needs to take 10 deep breaths and chill out. This possible threat is 175 hours out. When I read many doomsday proclamations, I chuckle. All of this will change a dozen times during the next week. Remember, there is a threat 150 - 200 hours in the future. All of the hype and perceived expert hyperbole at this point means nothing.
  16. stormy
    Yes Bob, we are doing quite well in January! I have received 3.22" rain and melted snow the first 18 days. This will likely be the wettest month since September when I received 5.24" Regarding wet January's, during the past 20 years my wettest was 2013 with 4.48" rain and melted snow.
  17. stormy
    The latest models seem to be suggesting a major event. We all need to remember that this is 96 hrs. into the future and changes will occur. The trough entering the Great lakes and retreating HP over the North Atlantic will decide.
  18. stormy
    I believe most of us understand the problems up north and northeast. At least we can be thankful that we don't have an OTS southern slider.
  19. stormy
    The GFS leads the way again. No 50/50 and HP in the NA makes it very dicey. Some locations in the MA will be dumped on.
  20. stormy
    A lot of NAM bashing this morning and that is fine but I would like to make an observation regarding the late Sunday night/Monday morning event for my immediate area. At 2 pm Sunday, the following accumulation expectations from the models I sampled: GFS 15 inches, Euro 10 inches, GEM 11 inches, ICON 6 inches, NDFD 5 inches, 12 NAM 8 inches. I received a total of 8 inches. Yes, I am aware of all the variables that skew and taint these model wishcasts but this is an observation. Regarding Thursday night into Friday. This will be a quick hitting system with a likely Tennessee southern Virginia track that is mostly snow north of the track, likely 2 - 5 inches for a swath across central and northern Virginia.
  21. stormy
    The pre -event temperatures will result in rapid melting except in grassy and elevated surfaces unless the SFR is very heavy.
  22. stormy
    The Euro is finally getting the idea.... Better late than never but the Euro suffers.
  23. stormy
    The Euro is trying but just can't get the scent. If the GFS pulls this off, The Euro will drop a couple notches. Next Friday? I'll start paying attention about Tuesday.
  24. stormy
    .62" this morning. Not a "drought buster, but real nice! I was 10 inches below normal for last year.
  25. stormy
    Mid jan to Mid feb is really our last good window. Anything after that is a crap shoot and not that fun unless its a blizzard This is not intuition, but I would guess that mid January to mid March is a good bet to break the pattern. Mother Nature always balances.
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