stormy

During a review of this thread this afternoon I have read much negative anticipation regarding the coming winter for snowfall. If you live outside of the severe drought zone, smile and be happy. The immediate D.C. region and east is indicated near normal by the drought monitor. My research of Enso for the past 43 years reveals the 81 corridor receives above normal snowfall 88% of the time with similar values as CPC predicted for this coming winter. My main concern is not snowfall, it is moisture. The water table in my region of the Valley is 19 feet below April. The lowest since October of 2002! Trees are dying, many people's only source of water from a private well is failing in some cases. We need to average 150% of normal precipitation from November - April to replenish 10 - 15 inch deficits. Though I highly suspect that we won't be that lucky, El Nino can often provide a wet winter. 2 analog winters, 91-92 and 09-10 gave very wet Decembers. Will this El Nino winter do the same, or will it fail?? That is my main concern.

28.5 degrees at 7 am.......... Measured by Davis and Taylor...........

.20" yesterday brings my October total to .53". Normal for the first 20 days of October would be 2.05".

An interesting presentation from DT. In summary at the end, "Where do we go from here" , things to watch the next 60 days. Does the Nino stay broken? I agree this is important. And, watch the updated seasonals in early Nov. I will be watching very closely.

I started all of this discussion, so its about time that I pipe in. 91-92 and 09-10 with similar strong Nino signals had vastly different snowfall totals for the MA. First, I wish to thank Cape and PSU for their valuable contributions during the past 24 hours. Cape in the beginning pointed out as I suspected that 09-10 was an unusual combination of persistent negative NAO and AO. PSU gave support and additional explanatory text. The obvious reaction to raw data is that both years had wet Decembers and dry February's. Snowfall was dictated by how much high latitude blocking occurred. Get the cold air here with a moderate to strong Nino , blocking and snow will fall with systems. Lack of cold air results in disappointment, especially below 500 ft. elevation.

I have reviewed Enso data for the past 40 years looking for analog years to compare to latest CPC predictions of at least +1.5. for November through January in region 3.4.. I find two: 91-92 at +1.5 and 09-10 at +1.6. I looked at total winter snowfall for my location in Augusta County for each winter and monthly precipitation totals for each year. 91-92 gave me only 3 inches of snow and 09-10 gave me 63 inches! How can this happen when both winters had similar Nino values as predicted for this winter? When I posted this anomaly back in July, Terpeast said that a strongly positive AO sometimes at +2.0 probably killed the 91-92 winter. November of 91 was dry at only 2.18" prec., Nov. of 09 was wet at 6.75". Normal is 3.54" December of 91 was wet at 5.25", Dec. of 09 was very wet at 7.03". Normal is 2.59". Jan. of 92 was dry at 2.08", Jan. of 10 was wet at 3.78". Normal is 2.95". February of 92 was dry at 2.36", February of 10 was also dry at 2.26". Normal is 2.86" My theory is that similar atmospherics will likely produce similar results with a +1.5 or + 1.6 Nino. The next 14 day AO is predicted neutral or slightly negative. Does anyone have any credible predictions for the December/January AO. What was the AO in December/January 09-10?

Well hello there my friend. Yes, and I have good reason. I have received .01" since midnight. Raleigh reports 1.26" . I pray that my winter routine gloats on tons of rain and 25 - 40" of snow(my forecast).

I agree but sometimes a fall pattern can persist through the winter. 1977 is an example.

This is a Miller B split. The later systems will likely be STJ vs NS. If no phasing occurs, forget it. I am just trying to illustrate that a moderate to strong El Nino can lead to disappointment with suppression and no phasing. My gut feel is we will be fine with a reversal of last winter. But, I am concerned.

Is this a preview of the winter?? I hope not!

Yes!, Snow geese were also jumping off cliffs in my region by 1958 after nearly a decade of snow drought winters. Little did we know that 12 years of winter joy was beginning in March of 1958. But, one big difference between 1958 and 2023 is because back then we just thought it was a case of bad luck that would end and it did. Now, we are almost constantly told by so many so called experts that this is the new normal that will likely only get worse.

The Dec. - Feb thoughts look better. The trend in the Jan. - Mar. map is not our friend for a wet winter. Its trending in the wrong direction. That dry slot in the OV is pressing. Hopefully in early November, it will reverse course. The CPC says today we have an 80% prob. of +1.5 or more in 3.4 in Dec.-Jan. . That is a strong signal for above normal snow for at least western areas.

Yes is the literal answer but these seasonal or monthly maps are always subject to significant change. To be safe in wet or dry the most pronounced anomaly is always preferred. We are in more of a fringe wet area with this map. To be safe in wet we are too far north.

I would enjoy more comfort if the Raleigh expectation was at Staunton/D.C.. My Valley region sorely needs a wet winter, well above normal to replenish a water table now 17 feet below April. If taken literally and we are 1" plus for January-March, that's not enough. 3 - 4 inches would be much better. Snow? if that is an only desire, this map looks fine.

Only one example: That has disappointment written all over it with slight variance.

I am beginning to be concerned more about precipitation than temperatures. An historical Nino gives heavy precipitation to the Carolina's and south with Va/Maryland being on the northern fringe. Nearly all current guidelines suggest this may be a suppression winter when we so desperately need heavy precipitation for the widespread drought, especially western areas.

What does this really mean????

37 low at my place.

Thanks Will. I understand completely. 384 hrs is wishcasting regardless of the source. A month or 3 months or 6 months is also wishcasting, even more so. There are many posts that do not pass reasonable scrutiny. As far as Snow Map Police, I couldn't care less. They are only foolishly criticizing a guessing game that they are addicted to. I look at the CFS and ECMWF longrange stuff occasionally as well as the Cansips and others. Some really put high hopes on or even debate micro elements in something that changes tomorrow or next week or next month. To me it is little more than trivial distraction. It was just a quiet Sunday morning and I decided to post something rather unusual for this early date. Here we are are looking at 12z and its gone!!!!

GFS predicts heavy snow in mts. of W.Va. Oct. 23.

The weather Gods will probably smile on your desires......................... This STJ stuff usually doesn't show up until later in November with a Nino.

Oct. 12 - 18 is now a model hint at STJ Nino influence for the winter. It will be interesting, especially for drought stricken portions of the MA.

I suffered a major ice-storm that cost thousands in cleanup on November 15, 2018. January 3, 2022 received 8 " snow with drifting. January 17,2022 another 8.5" snow mixed with sleet.

48 degrees early this morning. Frost threat early Monday morning.

I have received 26.40" for the year to date. The water table at the USGS test well at McGahaysville, 20 miles north of Waynesboro has dropped 16 feet since April. Increasing numbers of wells are failing.