stormy

I'm down in Augusta County near Staunton/Waynesboro.

You and I both! It has been 2 months since I received 1 inch from one system. I received 7.39" from Fran on Sept. 6, 1996. Big Meadows up on the Skyline Drive received 15.61 inches in 24 hours.

The Shenandoah Valley is the center of severe drought from Staunton to Winchester. The latest GFS/GEM predicts that the coming weekend could offer inferior relief. Maybe 1 inch when we need 6 inches............

100% agreed

Put the 18z GFS in the bank and stop the Nonsense!

The ECMWF now says nobody inland of the bay gets any rain on the weekend. The North Atlantic HP collapses to the southeast opening up a clear escape route from building HP over eastern Canada. GFS and GGEM are hanging on.

The next weekend weather hinges on the strength and tenacity of potentially blocking HP over the north Atlantic. The 18z GFS is trying to cave to the ECM by slightly weakening the HP and displacing 150 miles to the SE. This disrupts the trajectory of Atlantic moist feed into the system which still comes inland. Saturday would be the wettest day in this scenerio.

BAD news!!!! The ECM kills the weekend system. Erodes the BH and strings out ATC. Weaker system rides north from Florida by Tuesday giving lighter rain to IA. I still have my fingers crossed for pouring rain next Saturday and Sunday. Go GFS and GEM!!!

The 12z GFS and GEM stand pat with an inland runner. Out here in Augusta County the 06z run gave a blend of 2.94". The 12z run gives a blend of 2.99". I'll take it after a total to date for Sept of 1.39".

A complete bust yesterday as only .05" fell in the valley. 1.55" 40 miles to my west. Next weekend, I must side with the GFS and GEM as blocking HP in the North Atlantic with weakness in the OHV sets the stage for an inland runner.

I never really paid attention to this thread before but during the past 30 minutes I have really enjoyed reading thoughts and experiences from you folks! Though suffering from drought, we have enjoyed a wonderful garden this year. We harvested a near record 3 bushels of kenebec potatoes from a planted 10 pounds! Have harvested over 10 bushels of tomatoes from 6 vines! Canned 50 qts. and gave away bushels. Many have commented on the finest tomatoes ever seen! My fresh hot banana peppers add spice to every evening meal.

With the CPC update this morning, region 3.4 is now +1.6. Nov. thru January is now 71% of 3.4 region +1.5 or more...................... This is excellent for my 88% likelihood of a winter of above normal snowfall west of the Blue Ridge at +1.46 or more. My 24" 40 year average is now at 25" - 40".

Severe Drought now exists from Staunton to Winchester. Tens of millions of dollars are being lost in agricultural production. My stream stopped flowing today for the first time in 21 years. The weekend offers paltry rainfall compared to what is needed.

Back on August 11 when I predicted in this thread that the Atlantic would come alive in the next few weeks I was basing this on the ECM predicted Sept. MSLP. This has shifted a little with the 9/01 update but the August MSLP for Sept. was certainly a harbinger. Jose and Katia were so quick and gone that they fell through the cracks for me. Just as well!! The NHC progs Lee to be a major cat. 4 on Sunday at 65w. The 18z GFS takes Lee north 200 miles west of Bermuda on Thursday. It may later threaten Atlantic Canada. The spaghetti models still re-curve Lee by 70w but that may become problematic. If we can pump that NA ridge and hold the trough over the OV, we may be in business. A long shot but better than no shot.

Thanks for the correction! Somehow I missed Jose.

The NHC now brings Jose to cat.4 with 140 mph winds by 8am Sunday. Early track is southwest of most earlier guidance. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/051459.shtml?

I have access to local weather records back to 1893. 1958 is the halfway point. It is amazing how many more +90 days occurred pre 1958 compared to post 1958. I have been checking daily for over a month. A high of 94 yesterday and low of 59 at 6:30.

Yes, be patient while working your way through this site, but, the information is here. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/gw

This is a fantastic contribution to this forum!! My hat is off to Terpeast! I agree completely that this coming winter will be an excellent test. My research into my point specific home base Enso winter influence during the past 43 years reveals that average 1.45+ Nino winters give above normal snowfall west of the BR 88% of the time. The CPC and other venues project an approximation of this anomaly for the coming winter. This is a base of support for my winter 23-24 prediction. According to NASSA'S GISS the earth has warmed 1.9 F. since 1880 and the warming has increased since 1980. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures Ironically, the 30 year period from 1945 to 1975 was slightly cooler than normal. Scientists believe that atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic burning of fossils fuels resulted in this cooler period. Yes, from 1945-1975 we actually had anthropogenic global cooling. Passage of clean air acts in 1970 from countries around the world brought this AGC to a halt. https://skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century-advanced.htm Predicting future climate cannot be more than speculation because climate models have often been incorrect with details. I thoroughly enjoyed digesting this excellent study. My personal take away is that from 1962 - 2015, maximum daily snow per year was largely static. The past 8 years have witnessed a steady decline of annual snowfall at this snapshot one location. My personal one location has been static with one above normal year. I firmly believe that future winters will be variable because of many short range factors not possible to fathom more than a week or two in advance. I agree with Bob Chill along these lines. I also believe that if the current warming continues, marginal locations and certainly D.C. is included will ultimately see more very low snowfall winters. West of the BR, not so much during the lifetime of anyone reading this.

The water table has dropped 11 feet in 3 months in Augusta/Rockingham.

57.6 degrees at 6:30 after 92.4 yesterday.

Excessive heat during a drought always exacerbates the stress on Mother Nature. Many will be shocked 10 days from now if we have 95-100 heat all of next week with no rain. I am confident that the GFS and ECMWF are over-inflating actual temperatures, they almost always do. I always rely on the GGEM more in extreme heat.

I think your right. El Nino should begin to kick in about November. Until Then..................... September and October tend to get very dry without tropical contribution because thunderstorm season is over.

Elkins W.Va. has received 1.58" rain in the past 3 hours.

Just be patient and wait about 10 days................. It will get worse..........