stormy

I have received 1.12" 30% of normal

Hello my friend down south! Please educate yourself a little from psu: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/91

24 hrs. later I have received 5 drops instead of 5 inches. This is not 15 day low resolution wish-casting from the GFS. This is 24 hr. high resolution from the NAM 3k. The GFS and ECMWF regularly average 8 - 15 degrees inflated with heat at 24 hrs... Now the NAM 3k misses by 5 inches with 24 hr. rainfall. I believe Gordon Barnes could have done better with his primitive tools in 1975!!! Do we continue to delude ourselves with 21st century high tech??

Mother Nature is providing for the squirrels when the deep snow arrives!! Never fails

Big Joe and especially the CFSv2 never misses!!!!! Start waxing those skies!

It also said I would hit 104 last Friday. My high was 90. The GFS is useless with heat. The ECM is not much better. It predicted 97 last Friday.

At 12z the 3k NAM nest predicted .18" rain thru Tuesday for my neck of the woods. Now at 18z it predicts 5.05" in the next 24 hrs. Without a doubt, a Flood Warning will be issued tomorrow afternoon..................... Heaviest rain 10 am - 4 pm. A few days ago I believed only the GFS and ECM were on steroids..............................

As I predicted in this thread on July 11. If the Nino anomaly exceeds 1.00, near and west of the BR will likely experience above normal snowfall this coming cold season. If the anomaly is less than +.70 we will probably have below normal snowfall. The CFS ensemble mean is +1.45 which is near perfect. The latest CPC Dyn. Avg. is 1.90 which is still good. The CPC Stat. Avg. is +.95 which is marginal. The ECMWF gives 2" - 4" above normal precip. Dec - Feb. Latest thoughts give western areas an 80% probability of above normal snowfall. Immediate D.C. region will hinge on amount of blocking. That is my 23-24 Winter Prediction..........................

Hey Bob! Really good to see you back in the loop! Hopefully you'll hang around through the winter.......

Thanks very much!! I really appreciate your expert explanation.

Crazy times for the models on Friday afternoon in my immediate region. 102F with 50% cloud cover on GFS at 4 pm. ECM 96F with 25% cloud cover. NAM12 says 67 with rain! Nice! The only sanity is with the GEM which says 90 degrees with 45% cloud cover.

Another county applies for drought disaster declaration in the valley................................................... https://www.whsv.com/2023/08/23/shenandoah-county-applies-disaster-relief-due-drought-conditions/ When the drought monitor updates tomorrow morning, the moderate drought area will expand. Valley farmers have lost millions of dollars in the corn crop. Soybeans are next.

Do you really wonder why? Careful consideration of our modern day society will provide the answer.

I had a high of 90 yesterday. I used the GEM for my forecast yesterday morning as it projected a high of 90 when the GFS said 96. The GFS is sometimes wildly inaccurate with heat. A good example is evident this morning with Friday afternoon expectations. With no precip. the 06z GFS is wacko at 18z with regional temperatures compared to the 00z ECMWF which seems reasonable.

Drought is returning quickly for most areas unless we receive widespread significant rain soon. The water table has dropped 4 ft. in 30 days at a USGS test well in northern Augusta. My spring fed stream level has dropped out surprisingly fast in the past two weeks. After 5.39" rain in July my lawn has went dormant August 20.

I had a low of 45 Saturday morning and 49 this morning.

Strasburg declares Drought Emergency: https://www.whsv.com/2023/08/15/strasburg-declares-drought-emergency/

Page County in the northern valley south of Front Royal has applied to Gov. Youngkin for a drought disaster declaration, freeing up federal and state assistance for farmers.

You're lucky that I was paying attention: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/SSTs/

I predict a big spike of Atlantic tropical activity during the next 2 - 5 weeks. The ECMWF surface pressure charts will encourage an active September. Saharan dust will tend to subside.

The SPC has increased wind damage potential to 45% tomorrow.

.37" this afternoon in showers from 2:30 - 3:30.

I am only 86 at 1700. The GFS said 96 at 1700 and the ECM said 95. The GEM is much closer at 89. The GFS and ECM both do a poor job with excessive heat in my area.

A total of 2.32" rain last 24 hours. 3.20" since Thursday.

Another 1.10" of rain last 90 minutes out here in the Valley between Staunton and Waynesboro. Now 1.54" for the day and 2.42" last 2 days. 39 mph southeast wind at 3:42. 71 degrees and light rain at 4:45.