stormy

I hope your wrong, but who knows. 24 inches of snow is only 2.5 inches of QP. We need much more than that.

Here we are in the first week of November in a moderate to strong El Nino and the Severe Drought for the I-81 corridor continues to worsen. I have been dry since the end of July. August gave me 1.12 compared to a normal of 3.63, September gave 3.59" compared to a normal of 4.43", October gave .53" compared to a normal of 3.25". Historical comparisons to other El Nino's of this value gives me reason for great concern. Most other El Nino's gave a wet November. 1997 6.46", 2009 6.75"............................ The next 15 days look dry.......................... WE are running out of time for this El Nino to kick in...........

Welcome back with all that dirty stuff. Next week gave me 15 inches in 1968, lets do it again!

19 at 7 am

Thanks Terpeast! I really enjoyed reading your in depth research and predictions. Some are already questioning when the significant precipitation will begin. I use 2009-10 as one analog because of similar total positive values DJF. Precipitation in the 81 corridor was heavy in November and December of 09 after a dry October. October gave me in Augusta County 2.39". November 6.75", December 7.03". My feeling is we should all be in a wet pattern no later than December 10 or we may have a failed El Nino. The MEI is currently quite low. Regarding your in depth predictions. A positive critique is the total snowfall regions. I would have been inclined to follow the eastern foothills of the Blue Ridge with the 10 - 20 inch line from central Virginia northeast to north central Maryland. This would of course place D.C. in the 10 - 20 inch area instead of 20 - 40 inches. I am accepting your prediction of a slightly warmer than normal winter to support my reasoning. BUT, if your thoughts about a KU or multiple SECS bear fruit, you may have it nailed. Good Luck!!

14.3 degrees at 7 am. The GEM is usually superior with radiational cooling for my location. The GFS had predicted a low of 22 and the ECMWF 26. Elevation varies widely in Augusta making a huge difference. A scan around Augusta/Rockingham around 7 am found temperatures ranging from 11 - 24. A modified UHIA also exists in Staunton, Waynesboro and Harrisonburg.

You mentioned Swoope. Do you by any chance work at VDOT?

The GEM gives me a low of 14F at 11z tomorrow. My forecast is closer to 18. At 5:45 Mount Mitchell at 6684 ft. reports 17.4F.

30 at 7am. Spruce Knob reports 14. Canaan Heights, 1.1" snow and 17.

That should park the axis of a trough over Nashville or Crossville. About right.............

You were very lucky! I received .53". 16% of normal.

The GFS has given a wild ride the last 24 hours in about 2 weeks!! From 16 inches of snow to less than an inch of rain, now 7.46 inches of mostly rain on Nov. 11 !!!

2 runs straight at this range is unusual, especially beefing up with number 2. Can 3 be a charm at 6:15??

During a review of this thread this afternoon I have read much negative anticipation regarding the coming winter for snowfall. If you live outside of the severe drought zone, smile and be happy. The immediate D.C. region and east is indicated near normal by the drought monitor. My research of Enso for the past 43 years reveals the 81 corridor receives above normal snowfall 88% of the time with similar values as CPC predicted for this coming winter. My main concern is not snowfall, it is moisture. The water table in my region of the Valley is 19 feet below April. The lowest since October of 2002! Trees are dying, many people's only source of water from a private well is failing in some cases. We need to average 150% of normal precipitation from November - April to replenish 10 - 15 inch deficits. Though I highly suspect that we won't be that lucky, El Nino can often provide a wet winter. 2 analog winters, 91-92 and 09-10 gave very wet Decembers. Will this El Nino winter do the same, or will it fail?? That is my main concern.

28.5 degrees at 7 am.......... Measured by Davis and Taylor...........

.20" yesterday brings my October total to .53". Normal for the first 20 days of October would be 2.05".

An interesting presentation from DT. In summary at the end, "Where do we go from here" , things to watch the next 60 days. Does the Nino stay broken? I agree this is important. And, watch the updated seasonals in early Nov. I will be watching very closely.

I started all of this discussion, so its about time that I pipe in. 91-92 and 09-10 with similar strong Nino signals had vastly different snowfall totals for the MA. First, I wish to thank Cape and PSU for their valuable contributions during the past 24 hours. Cape in the beginning pointed out as I suspected that 09-10 was an unusual combination of persistent negative NAO and AO. PSU gave support and additional explanatory text. The obvious reaction to raw data is that both years had wet Decembers and dry February's. Snowfall was dictated by how much high latitude blocking occurred. Get the cold air here with a moderate to strong Nino , blocking and snow will fall with systems. Lack of cold air results in disappointment, especially below 500 ft. elevation.

I have reviewed Enso data for the past 40 years looking for analog years to compare to latest CPC predictions of at least +1.5. for November through January in region 3.4.. I find two: 91-92 at +1.5 and 09-10 at +1.6. I looked at total winter snowfall for my location in Augusta County for each winter and monthly precipitation totals for each year. 91-92 gave me only 3 inches of snow and 09-10 gave me 63 inches! How can this happen when both winters had similar Nino values as predicted for this winter? When I posted this anomaly back in July, Terpeast said that a strongly positive AO sometimes at +2.0 probably killed the 91-92 winter. November of 91 was dry at only 2.18" prec., Nov. of 09 was wet at 6.75". Normal is 3.54" December of 91 was wet at 5.25", Dec. of 09 was very wet at 7.03". Normal is 2.59". Jan. of 92 was dry at 2.08", Jan. of 10 was wet at 3.78". Normal is 2.95". February of 92 was dry at 2.36", February of 10 was also dry at 2.26". Normal is 2.86" My theory is that similar atmospherics will likely produce similar results with a +1.5 or + 1.6 Nino. The next 14 day AO is predicted neutral or slightly negative. Does anyone have any credible predictions for the December/January AO. What was the AO in December/January 09-10?

Well hello there my friend. Yes, and I have good reason. I have received .01" since midnight. Raleigh reports 1.26" . I pray that my winter routine gloats on tons of rain and 25 - 40" of snow(my forecast).

I agree but sometimes a fall pattern can persist through the winter. 1977 is an example.

This is a Miller B split. The later systems will likely be STJ vs NS. If no phasing occurs, forget it. I am just trying to illustrate that a moderate to strong El Nino can lead to disappointment with suppression and no phasing. My gut feel is we will be fine with a reversal of last winter. But, I am concerned.

Is this a preview of the winter?? I hope not!

Yes!, Snow geese were also jumping off cliffs in my region by 1958 after nearly a decade of snow drought winters. Little did we know that 12 years of winter joy was beginning in March of 1958. But, one big difference between 1958 and 2023 is because back then we just thought it was a case of bad luck that would end and it did. Now, we are almost constantly told by so many so called experts that this is the new normal that will likely only get worse.

The Dec. - Feb thoughts look better. The trend in the Jan. - Mar. map is not our friend for a wet winter. Its trending in the wrong direction. That dry slot in the OV is pressing. Hopefully in early November, it will reverse course. The CPC says today we have an 80% prob. of +1.5 or more in 3.4 in Dec.-Jan. . That is a strong signal for above normal snow for at least western areas.