stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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The updated Drought Monitor places the 81 corridor from Staunton to Winchester in Extreme Drought
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I have received a pitiful .04" as most of the energy translated south of I-64.
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All of the CPC guidance says cooler and wetter from Saturday into August. Are these people worth their positions??????????
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If we had received the predicted rainfall from the 6-10 or 8-14 during the past 6 months, we would not be in drought.
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Believe it or not, the USGS test well about 15 miles north of Waynesboro at 310 ft. is about the same as July 15 of 2023. The water table has fell about 6 ft. since May 25 but is 15 feet above mid November of 2023.
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.07" yesterday. 19% of normal rainfall for the first 13 days of July.
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12z models give my area .05" to 1.00" on Friday with a suicide demarcation.
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I have received .27" rain the first 10 days of July. This is the driest first 10 days in more than 45 years!! Number two was July of 1998 when I received .62".
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Those were my expressed fears from last weekend. My 3 model blend has collapsed from 1.50" to .37" during the past 24 hours.
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Interesting question! The 15 90+ days in 1934 had an average low of 66. The 13 90+ days in 1936 had an average low of 63. The average low for June 20 is 60.
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I have recorded 9 days since June 1 of 90 or above. The 1930's were hotter as 1934 had witnessed 15 days of 90 or above on July 9 and 1936 had witnessed 13 days of 90 or above at Staunton by July 9.
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The 12z AIFS is better than the deterministic Euro, giving our area an inch of rain by late Friday.
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There seems to be a slot of subsidence on the eastern flank of Beryl's remnants. The ICON and GFS keep this sinking air back over Charleston, W.Va. giving Virginia a beneficial rain from a slug of Atlantic moisture. I'm really concerned about the 12z EURO desire to put western Va. in this dry slot. I'm anxiously awaiting the 12z AIFS.
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High of 91. 38% humidity more like Arizona makes the drought worse but the RF more tolerable.
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83/68
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Primary would be a robust tropical system doing the job, tracking Wilmington/Crozet/Front Royal. Mobile/Roanoke/Staunton would also work. Beryl possibility Galveston/ Dallas/Nashville/Beckley would bring numerous showers but likely not as much qp as the other two.
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93 but not bad because the humidity is so low at 43%
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The Euro 12z deterministic now brings Beryls rains to Virginia by 7 - 10. 94/67
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The Euro A1FS had one wet run yesterday. Today, it is back to very dry for the next 10 days.
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Augusta County is firmly entrenched in Severe Drought.
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The Euro A1FS thru 7-15 has been very dry for the past week. It has soared from .70" to 2.75" for my back yard in one run.
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The air temperature really has very little to do with water temperature on the OBX in summer. Its all about wind direction. Southwest is cold, southeast is warm.
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47.3 this morning!!!! That is 15 degrees below normal.
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.05" early this morning. 75/74
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88/72 at 5:20
