stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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The Positive Snow Depth Change on the 18z HRRR will probably be closer to reality or even generous below 2000 ft. 55 degrees and .72" rainfall at 3 pm.
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This could be a classic noreaster. Tomorrow is a mess........................
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Thanks
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Searching for a better short range model than the NAM as suggested by psu. Lets try the NDFD I could buy this.
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It would definitely trail the CMC for rationational cooling nightly lows.
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The GFS finds the 17 storm with 8 inches for the Central Valley. More of an inland runner with mostly rain east of BR. I don't like the Superior LP..........................
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I have been saying for a long time. Don't ignore the GFS.............
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I can't find any disagreement with what you say. The 12k dropped 10:1 snowfall from 7" to 2" for my area and dropped total rainfall from 3.15" to 1.63". It amps more toward the coast and shifts precip. footprint which has been a 6 month pattern. Yes, the 3k is still amplified with snow but drops rainfall for me from 2.59" to 1.11". I agree with your thoughts about a short range model with more reliability.
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The 18z NAM finally comes to it's senses. It was on steroids..
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Sunday night will mostly depend on how far the trough axis lingers behind the front, how long precipitation lingers behind the front and if any wrap around banding occurs. This should be an elevation event even more so than normally expected.
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I received 6 inches of the white stuff.
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The best conclusion for the Sunday night/ Monday potential is yes, it might happen but is not likely. Most elements would have to fall into place perfectly. 12-16 & 17 would be more likely.
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The 18z NAM really amps the system over Virginia. TOO MUCH?? I can believe 6 inches along higher elevations of the Blue Ridge. I cannot believe 4 inches at Richmond with surface temps. of 34 - 36 degrees!! This is likely to be an elevation event for western locations.
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Lets beef it up a little! 6 inches at my place!!!
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L.p. is about 100 miles east of the benchmark, but the general synoptic is workable with the banana h.p. to the north. 7.5 inches at my location is much more realistic that 4 inches with L.p. over Morgantown.
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2.25 inches of snow at NewFound Gap North Carolina:
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- 20
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This is a perfect illustration that no person on the face of the earth can accurately predict more than 24 hours in advance when it will snow or not snow. Not psu, not Cape, no person. Evolving surface features can sometimes foil even the most sophisticated analysis. Don't be fooled by anything otherwise. The Sunday/Monday snow potential on the ECMWF will likely die. This January 3, 2022 potential did not die.
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I received 8 inches and had 3' drifts.
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GEFS definitely looking better on the 20th than a couple days ago. A reversal of the h5 pattern has possibilities.
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250 at the state line in Highland at 4332 ft. had about an inch of snow last night. The highway is covered with snow.
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This is la-la land. Reduce this by 90% and you will be close. Where does this crap come from???
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You are correct, the STJ is threatening to become active late next week on the GFS. Pre Christmas snow??
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A super active STG is prayed for in Jan - Mar. 1966 was bland on Jan. 10, but from Jan 20 thru Feb. we had historical snow.
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The first time I experienced this was way back in the 70"s, it was unbelievable, sun on the east side but a dark roll of clouds on top of the mountain. When we came out on the west side, it was pouring snow!
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The Allegheny tunnel on the Pa. Turnpike often witnesses sun on the east side and snow falling on the west side. Amazing.........................
