Carvers Gap

When we see it get hot in April, look out. Looking like a potentially VERY hot summer on tap - starts early and ends late. I think we are looking at May to mid-October w/ AN temps. Hopefully some cooler weeks thrown in to buffer what could be a scorcher.

If we have a good winter @Holston_River_Rambler, the red salamander is the key.

I would guess we have had gusts well over 40mph.

Incredibly windy today.

In looking at the ENSO forecast for next winter (growing chances of a strong super Nina...maybe extreme), I think the chances for winter weather are going to be front end, and then potential torch after that. The SER is very likely going to be a problem. The only silver lining, this may be so strong...there might be few analogs that actually match it. The PDO is forecast to remain negative....very strong warm signals paired for January and February. We will have to have a very strong -NAO(tough to predict in advance) to counter what could be an MJO that will park itself in 4-5-6 w/ cold water over regions 8-1. I think the Mountain West is set to score a massive winter.

Looks like maybe two more trough amplifications in the East. This has "late freeze" written all over it for gardeners who are going to try to plan early. This just seems like one of those patterns that stays very warm for several days/weeks and then flips crazy cold for 2-3 days.

Saw some social media posts (4/4) for Roan Mountain. Looks like the first bald had maybe 3-4" of snow. It is nearly impossible to tell the exact amount from a photo, but the wind also moved a lot of the snow around. Just based on the reports from LeConte, that amount sounds about right. It has fell like winter for the past few days. Looks like we are back to spring like temps next week, though!

We had sleet here a minute ago. RadarScope has frozen precip over portions of the TRI region.

Reports of light snow in Wise and Tazewll, VA, at this hour.

Winter Weather Advisories are posted for the Apps.

Tornado Warning TNC013-151-022230- /O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0002.240402T2144Z-240402T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Morristown TN 544 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Campbell County in east Tennessee... Southeastern Scott County in east Tennessee... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 543 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Huntsville, or 11 miles southeast of Oneida, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Campbell and southeastern Scott Counties, including the following locations... Jellico, Elk Valley, Indian Mountain State Park, Fincastle, Royal Blue, White Oak, Norma, and Caryville. This includes Interstate 75 in Tennessee between mile markers 138 and 161. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Any thoughts on the recent update by MRX?

Snow flurries/showers on my point and click for Thursday....no joke.

I bet we see some changes w/ that set-up. I have no idea what!

The PV is spinning in the opposite direction of normal. https://www.space.com/earth-polar-vortex-spinning-backwards-above-arctic-reversal-event?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=space.com&fbclid=IwAR0suogUmLsbHb98dCeLpcitxDzb5WMWimd91WXvLsnPbzOnCIpiooI8CB8

What a beautiful day.

The 12z GFS has been cooking something up around 240...GEM has that to some extent. Cold shot w/ various waves. Holston is on top of it as usual! Worth watching at least for the mountains of E TN.

That is the year. I must have not been reading closely!!! Once we get over 50, all posts look new anyway! LOL j/k - sorta not. I don't know that we actually got full leaf coverage that year in NE TN. The trough looks over the eastern half of the country on the 12z GFS. The main axis looks over the NE, and fairly cool/progressive here. If that thing were to buckle, look out....

For now......it looks like the worst of the cold is over the Northeast. If a storm were to deepen along the Coast(even if it doesn't snow here), that would be a concern. The last two weeks of March have to be watched for cold. Overall, the Weeklies last night were much warmer for April. Those late season cold snaps are tough to predict....just takes one really strong cold front on the heels of a cutter or coastal along w/ some clear nights, and we could get a prolonged freeze even during a warm spell. Several years ago, I. remember the leaves on the trees up here getting bitten and falling off during maybe May?

Below is what the Euro Weeklies have been advertising for 3-4 weeks. This is now on the Canadian ensemble. That is West coast blocking connecting to Greenland blocking. This has been an error for most of the winter with the exception being mid-January. Let's see if this verifies.

And yes, I think we tend to see SSWs head to eastern North America during spring.

We really want to hang on to cooler weather for as long as possible w/ La Nina lurking. It has been my experience that if things warm-up during spring(during La Nina years), the summers are long and brutal. I don't see a long period of misery....more like cool shots, rain at times, and a strong cold shot or two. There is certainly a scenario there where it gets quite cold as ensembles being cold at this range can sometimes translate to much colder. Right now the cycle is....warm followed by step down to seasonal followed by step down to bitterly cold. Do we repeat that cycle one more time? IDK. But, I do think we are seeing a legitimate pattern change coming up w/ more troughing at least making its way eastward. The Mountain West is piling up snow, and they are going to need every bit of that water content.

Pretty substantial cool down coming up in the d10+ and moving forward w/ time.

If you look at the 18z, you can see the slp crash into the Ohio Valley and a secondary form east of the Apps. Go look at those maps in the Feb thread, and that is what it looks like w/ one notable exception...the lee side stalls and doesn't progress northeastward very quickly at all. But the 18z GFS has that wonky setup....just too far out there to take seriously at this point. The 18z would put 1'+ above 5,000' in the Apps.

For the E TN mountains, I had a post in the Feb thread w/ the Pisgah and Spring Break storms. Those setups usually involve some sort of cutter into the Ohio Valley and a stalled, secondary lee side slp(sort of an odd Miller B). I am not saying that is what happens, but that is one of two set-ups that I look for. The other setup is a Miller A. The first scenario normally doesn't happen during winter, but stalled lows during spring are fairly common in the SE. They can occur as bowling balls or a lee side low that loses its steering current. The GFS has flirted w/ the first setup on a few runs. Kind of fun to track just for kicks and giggles.