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Carvers Gap

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  1. To echo @John1122 in the banter, starting to see some signs of a temporary breakdown of the EC ridge complex as several storms traverse the western Atlantic and drive the cool boundary every southward. I like it. I like it a lot.
  2. Spoke way too soon. Models have returned this morning to near record heat for some in the forum area. My point and click is now 93. That is not a record high for Tuesday, but pretty sure it would be fo Wednesday. I don't see a lot of support in modeling for that point and click, but the wx pattern with HP over us definitely supports very high temps. Really hate weather like this during fall. It is not unprecedented, but I still don't like it.
  3. Other models have finally come back to normal for next week as John noted the extreme temps seem dubious. Need the Euro to back off today, and we may have some consensus for seasonably warm temps vs crazy hot. Temps IMBY have dropped 5-7 degrees since the earlier runs re: next Tuesday.
  4. The 14th has mid 90s all of the way into northern Indiana on the 0z Euro. The GFS has cooled considerably on this date with its 6z run. Pulling for the 6z GFS at this point. However, the GFS has consistently been showing incredible heat. The Euro just recently jumped on board with a bit of a more modified(but very hot and expansive) heat wave. There are a few solutions that sometimes manage to get a front through during that time frame. 8-9 days out, but not liking the recent majority of runs for that date. Would certainly like to see the cooler solutions verify!
  5. The 12z Euro yesterday was not cool around the 14th. I have been using that day as a benchmark. The GFS has actually cooled off in E TN. Interestingly, it was the GFS which caught the last warm-up. I truly hope the GFS is wrong.
  6. Seeing some much AN temps showing up in the d8-10 period - just brutal stuff. This would easily be a record breaking heat wave for someone in the forum area. Really, really hope I am wrong. Looks like the hottest air of the season. Western areas of the forum are in the bullseye for now. Worst of summer appears still ahead. La Nina summers are the worst.
  7. Well, we are just one season away from winter. Nice to have a respite from the heat this week as the remnants of Ida depart the area. Thoughts and prayers for all of those affected by the hurricane along the Gulf Coast. Rainfall along the far eastern valley has been steady but reasonable - more as you go west I am nearly certain. This morning features light rain/drizzle and very low cloud decks. Lows in the northern valley are supposed to get into the 50s during the next few nights, and that is welcome news! Saw the first evidence of maples beginning to change color this morning. There is this one maple in our neighborhood which always changes first. Some of the dogwoods are beginning to show red in their leaves. Sycamores along the river are showing some yellow. For sure, some of that could be heat stress. Well, it is the first day of meteorological fall. I suspect this season will feature a quick snap to winter time temps late in the season. I am thinking warm early-mid fall, and then a sudden flip to cold. Somebody please fire-up an obs thread and also a banter thread for fall.
  8. La Nina extended summer looks locked-in. That is very counter to what LR models were showing just a few weeks ago. I suspect we see a very sudden flip, but until then....going to be HOT!!!! Some modeling is showing a pattern which gets progressively warmer against the norms. On the bright side, again, I think that might bode well to an early start to winter. Really though, I don't like this pattern all. Of all the patterns I really dislike, this is number one - August extending into September and the first part of October. Boy, I hope I am wrong.
  9. First snows of the season are falling in the Big Horns today. Bout' time to create a fall thread........
  10. I think we are very fortunate. Folks in western North Carolina have been slammed. Looks like Carter and Johnson counties are having problems as well. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/08/19/fred-flooding-missing-people-north-carolina-tornado-warning-northeast/8191424002/
  11. What is crazy is that it rained like crazy here, but barely raised many of the urban streams. On a positive note, my yard turned green almost over night!
  12. Headed down to @waltrip country last night in order to get some XC running on their course last night. As soon(and I mean right when we put the truck in park and got out), it started to thunder. So, we got back into the truck to wait, and wait, and wait. Those storms were coming off the mountains heading NW. All it would take would be a little ripple. As soon the storm come off the mountain, it unloaded and trained over east Greeneville. Finally got on the course around 7:15 after about a two hour wait. You can see the same deal on the radar above. As the rainfall descends the mountains - nada. As soon as it hits flat land....rain appears. This is textbook as to why during winter that the valleys do better with storms that come from the GOM. The foothills get the shaft in this set-up though(on the west side....east side gets hammered.)
  13. There are two potential rainmakers. The flow from the GOM with Floyd and a potential front late next weekend. MRX has a pretty decent rainfall map on social media. That looks reasonable to me. What will be interesting is whether we get significant rainfall in day6-10. That could be a problem on the heels of Fred. Right now, we could use the rain.
  14. I am not seeing the aggressive totals with the Euro or Canadian. Is the American model more accurate with this type of set-up?
  15. Great post. I miss those winters. This is an odd flip this time. The QBO never really cycled during the last negative cycle. It left the loop early. It has done the same thing with the positive cycle. It is almost like we are actually entering a true negative stage this time where last time was an off cycle head fake. Will be interesting to see if this current negative trend continues. After many, many normal cycles...it has gone pretty wonky. I don't completely trust it right now, but I definitely like the trend. I would seem this sets the stage for an early start to winter, but I have no crystal ball on that! LOL. I almost feel like this is has the potential to have a 17-18 cold snap which was brutal cold but dry. Oddly, I am a little less worried about cold this winter, and maybe more concerned that precip is sparse. I suspect we may have some chances with NW flow stuff. The new Euro seasonal is banging the drum for a big ridge out west for December and blocking in Greenland which lasts in January. Very much hoping we are at the beginning of a new -NAO cycle.
  16. Oddly, 95-96' has a similar flip...just a bit later. 09-10 and 14-15 also have a QBO that flipped almost exactly at the same time as this summer's.
  17. @tnweathernutshared this with me today. Take a look at what the QBO has done....gif of guy throwing all of his papers up in the air! LOL. Well, to quote Bob Kesling, "What a turn of events." Check out those last two QBO changes. Not sure many were expecting that. Double digit negatives now for the QBO for June at 30mb. That has my attention. Chaos right there. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index
  18. TYS just had its driest month since '95....Man, wouldn't it be nice to see the 95-96 analog pop up this winter?
  19. Looks like we managed ~0.25 of rain this evening. Very thankful for the rain. Some area to our east, as has been the case for several months, did very well. Right now IMBY, we are getting rain so infrequently that it reminds me of tracking snow during the winter.
  20. Normally, when it rains(during a summer with normal rainfall), I don't have to water my garden for about three days. Right now, soil moisture is almost non-existent IMBY. We received about 1.25-1.5" last week during that rain event(got lollipopped here)...had to water within 36 hours as the rainfall was soaked up or evaporated that quickly. With La Nina set to return, very possible this drought could intensify - though that is no guarantee as some La Nina's have produced plentiful rainfall during recent years. That said, drought/heat IMBY is almost always correlated with LaNina conditions. As I noted during spring, when NE TN has BN precip during spring...that is usually a really good indicator that summer is going to be a problem in this area.
  21. Yards are beginning to fry up here. Mine is toast. With the heat forecast mid-week and a lack of consistent precip, potentially could get much worse. We have only had three days at TRI which have seen 0.1 or more of rainfall. Two of those days were way back on July 1-2. If we don't score tomorrow, we are looking at a developing drought here. The US drought monitor from last week is picking-up on those conditions in this area.
  22. Update on peppers. With the increase in frequency of warm weather and warm nights, we have been blessed with an abundance of both giant Marconi sweet peppers and a poblano peppers(planted those in the hopes of making chile rellenos). The Marconi plant produced so many peppers that if fell over(and pulled the stake out of the ground). We also have had a better crop of cucumbers this year. Went with Spacemasters and Beit Alpha(an Israeli variety).
  23. We planted a fig tree this year. Found a great website which is documenting backyard gardens by Italian immigrants. I know we have some NE folks browse this thread from time to time. Would enjoy hearing your stories. Cool thing is they actually have been growing figs and lemons in areas of New York - thinking Long Island. The way they preserve their trees through cold NE winters is nothing short of genius. I have two neighbors who grow figs. One set of neighbors are expert gardeners. The other neighbor, a fine gardener in her own right, has a fig tree which was grown from a cutting by a coal miner in SW VA who was Italian. Growers in NE TN need to simply get a fig tree, and plant it on a south or southwest facing side of your residence, and then do some reading on taking care of it during winter. They are by no means a rarity, but they are also not found in abundance at this latitude. If you see a fig tree in NE TN or SW VA, those folks have either worked carefully to preserve their tree through winter, OR they chose a variety which overwinters well here. We are rookies in the fig tree hobby, but it is very rewarding. So far, deer will not touch the tree. I have heard that deer don't like the sap of established plants. Fresh figs taste incredible. https://www.theitaliangardenproject.com That fig tree, in its first year, decided to produce figs. Pretty cool. Additionally, we have been blessed with probably our best tomato crop ever. We are going to process those into spaghetti/marinara sauce. Despite limited rainfall in TRI, the garden has gone crazy. We installed an irrigation system this year, and it has been worth its weight in gold. The lack of consistent rainfall has actually mitigated disease. BTW, the ribbed tomatoes below are Marsalato Marmande which is a French variety. They are striking in appearance both on the vine and on the plate. Seeds are pricey, but the plants have been very disease resistant with plentiful production.
  24. Since it is kind of a boring wx pattern, though we might discuss the heat in Mountain West and the absolute scorcher that is likely to come to pass. They have already begun to close rivers. Oddly, they had a good snowpack in many places(Wyoming Range), but the water content was very low. Other places had to depend on a wet spring there for additional moisture(to add to deficits). Now, couple low water with hot temps....bout to get bad out there. Looks warm here in the TRI with temps in the low to mid 90s for the next several days. It is going to be HOT!!!
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